Dataset Information

Sources of error in measurement of minimal residual disease in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The level of minimal residual disease (MRD) in marrow predicts outcome and guides treatment in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) but accurate prediction depends on accurate measurement.

Methods

Forty-one children with ALL were studied at the end of induction. Two samples were obtained from each iliac spine and each sample was assayed twice. Assay, sample and side-to-side variation were quantified by analysis of variance and presumptively incorrect decisions related to high-risk disease were determined using the result from each MRD assay, the mean MRD in the patient as the measure of the true value, and each of 3 different MRD cut-off levels which have been used for making decisions on treatment.

Results

Variation between assays, samples and sides each differed significantly from zero and the overall standard deviation for a single MRD estimation was 0.60 logs. Multifocal residual disease seemed to be at least partly responsible for the variation between samples. Decision errors occurred at a frequency of 13-14% when the mean patient MRD was between 10-2 and 10-5. Decision errors were observed only for an MRD result within 1 log of the cut-off value used for assessing high risk. Depending on the cut-off used, 31-40% of MRD results were within 1 log of the cut-off value and 21-16% of such results would have resulted in a decision error.

Conclusion

When the result obtained for the level of MRD is within 1 log of the cut-off value used for making decisions, variation in the assay and/or sampling may result in a misleading assessment of the true level of marrow MRD. This may lead to an incorrect decision on treatment.

SUBMITTER: Latham S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5626434 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Sources of error in measurement of minimal residual disease in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Latham Sue S Hughes Elizabeth E Budgen Bradley B Mechinaud Francoise F Crock Catherine C Ekert Henry H Campbell Peter P Morley Alexander A

PloS one 20171003 10

<h4>Introduction</h4>The level of minimal residual disease (MRD) in marrow predicts outcome and guides treatment in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) but accurate prediction depends on accurate measurement.<h4>Methods</h4>Forty-one children with ALL were studied at the end of induction. Two samples were obtained from each iliac spine and each sample was assayed twice. Assay, sample and side-to-side variation were quantified by analysis of variance and presumptively incorrect decisions ...[more]

PMID: 28973007

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Project description:BackgroundMinimal residual disease (MRD) testing by higher performance techniques such as flow cytometry and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) can be used to detect the proportion of remaining leukemic cells in bone marrow or peripheral blood during and after the first phases of chemotherapy in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The results of MRD testing are used to reclassify these patients and guide changes in treatment according to their future risk of relapse. We conducted a systematic review of the economic literature, cost-effectiveness analysis, and budget-impact analysis to ascertain the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of MRD testing by flow cytometry for management of childhood precursor B-cell ALL in Ontario.MethodsA systematic literature search (1998-2014) identified studies that examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of MRD testing by either flow cytometry or PCR. We developed a lifetime state-transition (Markov) microsimulation model to quantify the cost-effectiveness of MRD testing followed by risk-directed therapy to no MRD testing and to estimate its marginal effect on health outcomes and on costs. Model input parameters were based on the literature, expert opinion, and data from the Pediatric Oncology Group of Ontario Networked Information System. Using predictions from our Markov model, we estimated the 1-year cost burden of MRD testing versus no testing and forecasted its economic impact over 3 and 5 years.ResultsIn a base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, compared with no testing, MRD testing by flow cytometry at the end of induction and consolidation was associated with an increased discounted survival of 0.0958 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and increased discounted costs of $4,180, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $43,613/QALY gained. After accounting for parameter uncertainty, incremental cost-effectiveness of MRD testing was associated with an ICER of $50,249/QALY gained. In the budget-impact analysis, the 1-year cost expenditure for MRD testing by flow cytometry in newly diagnosed patients with precursor B-cell ALL was estimated at $340,760. We forecasted that the province would have to pay approximately $1.3 million over 3 years and $2.4 million over 5 years for MRD testing by flow cytometry in this population.ConclusionsCompared with no testing, MRD testing by flow cytometry in newly diagnosed patients with precursor B-cell ALL represents good value for money at commonly used willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Treatment stratification based on bone marrow minimal residual disease (MRD) at set time points has resulted in considerably improved survival in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Treatment response is assessed using bone marrow samples. MicroRNAs (miRs) easily traffic among fluid spaces and are more stable than most other RNA classes. We examined the role of circulating miRs as putative less invasive MRD biomarkers. METHODS:In an exploratory experiment, expression of 46 preselected miRs was studied in platelet-free blood plasma samples of 15 de novo, 5 relapsed ALL patients and 10 controls by Custom TaqMan Array Advanced MicroRNA Card. Based on their high expression in ALL compared to controls, and on the reduction observed along the induction therapy, four miRs were selected for further analyses: miR-128-3p, -181a-5p, -181b-5p and 222-3p. Their expression was measured by qPCR at 4 time points in 27 de novo ALL patients treated in the ALL IC-BFM 2009 study. RESULTS:The expression of all 4 miRs significantly decreased over the first week of therapy (miR-128-3p: log2 fold change - 2.86; adjusted p 3.6 × 10-7; miR-181b-5p: log2 fold change - 1.75; adjusted p 1.48 × 10-2; miR-181a-5p: log2 fold change -1.33; adjusted p 3.12 × 10-2; miR-222-3p: log2 fold change - 1.25; adjusted p 1.66 × 10-2). However, no significant further reduction in miR expression was found after the 8th day of therapy. Measured drop in expression of 2 miRs at day 8 strongly correlated with day 15 bone marrow flow cytometry MRD results (miR-128-3p: Pearson's r = 0.88, adjusted p = 2.71 × 10-4; miR-222-3p: r = 0.81, adjusted p = 2.99 × 10-3). CONCLUSION:In conclusion, these circulating miRs might act as biomarkers of residual leukemia. MiR-128-3p and miR-222-3p in blood predict day 15 flow cytometry MRD results 7 days earlier. Although, their sensitivity falls behind that of bone marrow flow cytometry MRD at day 15.

Dataset Information

Sources of error in measurement of minimal residual disease in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Sources of error in measurement of minimal residual disease in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

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