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Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

ABSTRACT: The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality.

SUBMITTER: Valenzuela-Sanchez A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5627199 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

Valenzuela-Sánchez Andrés A Schmidt Benedikt R BR Uribe-Rivera David E DE Costas Francisco F Cunningham Andrew A AA Soto-Azat Claudio C

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20170901 1863

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, s ...[more]

PMID: 28954907

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Project description:BackgroundThe inflammatory mediator procalcitonin (PCT) has previously been associated with prognosis in myocardial infarction, cancer and sepsis patients. The importance of PCT in the general population is currently unknown. Our aim was to assess the relationship between plasma PCT and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in apparently healthy individuals with no previous history of cardiovascular disease or cancer.MethodsWe performed a prospective, population-based study on 3,322 individuals recruited from the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort, with a median follow-up time of 16.2 years. Plasma PCT, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides and cystatin C were measured at baseline and a thorough risk factor assessment was performed for all subjects. The primary end-points of the study were all-cause mortality, cancer mortality and cardiovascular mortality.ResultsMen had higher PCT levels compared to women. In Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, plasma lipids, renal function, body mass index and smoking, baseline PCT was associated with all-cause mortality and cancer mortality in men. The hazard ratio (HR) for men with PCT levels within the highest compared with the lowest quartile was 1.52 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 2.16; P = 0.024) for all-cause mortality and 2.37 (95% CI 1.36 to 4.14; P = 0.006) for cancer mortality. Additionally, men with increased plasma PCT were found to be at a higher risk to develop colon cancer (HR per 1 SD increase = 1.49 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.95); P = 0.005). In multivariate Cox regression analyses with mutual adjustments for PCT and hsCRP, PCT was independently associated with cancer death (HR per 1 SD increase = 1.28 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.49); P = 0.001) and hsCRP with cardiovascular death (HR per 1 SD increase = 1.42 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.83); P = 0.006) in men. We found no significant correlations between baseline PCT or hsCRP and incident cancer or cardiovascular death in women.ConclusionsWe disclose for the first time important independent associations between PCT and the risk for all-cause and cancer mortality in apparently healthy men. Our findings warrant further investigation into the mechanisms underlying the relationship between PCT and cancer.

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Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

Publications

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

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