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Early prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis secondary to necrotizing pancreatitis.

ABSTRACT: To assess the association between the clinical parameters within 48?hours of admission and the occurrence of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) during the late phase of necrotizing pancreatitis (NP).All patients were divided into 2 groups, the IPN and non-IPN groups. The clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between clinical parameters and IPN secondary to NP. The performance of each independent variable was plotted by the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Consequently, the cut-off level of each independent variable with its sensitivity and specificity was calculated.A total of 215 patients were enrolled in our study. Among them, 87 (40.5%) patients developed IPNs after a median of 13.5 (9.5-23.0) days from admission. Multivariate analysis indicated that the level of hematocrit (HCT) from 40% to 50% (P=.012, odds ratio (OR)?=?2.407), HCT over 50% (P?

SUBMITTER: Chen HZ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5627815 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis secondary to necrotizing pancreatitis.

Chen Hong-Ze HZ Ji Liang L Li Le L Wang Gang G Bai Xue-Wei XW Cheng Chun-Dong CD Sun Bei B

Medicine 20170701 30

To assess the association between the clinical parameters within 48 hours of admission and the occurrence of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) during the late phase of necrotizing pancreatitis (NP).All patients were divided into 2 groups, the IPN and non-IPN groups. The clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between clinical parameters and IPN secondary to NP. The performance of each indep ...[more]

PMID: 28746189

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Project description:ObjectiveInfectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is a serious complication of acute pancreatitis, and early recognition and timely intervention are the keys to improving clinical outcomes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive capacity of the neutrophil CD64 index (nCD64 index) on IPN in patients with acute pancreatitis METHODS: This study comprises two independent cohorts: the training cohort consisted of 202 patients from Hunan Provincial People's Hospital, and the validation cohort consisted of 100 patients from Changsha Central Hospital. Peripheral blood samples were collected on the day of admission and on the 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 10th days of hospitalization, and the nCD64 index was detected by flow cytometry. Additionally, relevant clinical characteristics and laboratory biomarkers were collected and analyzed.ResultsWe observed that nCD64 index on admission was significantly higher in the IPN group than Non-IPN group (p < 0.001). In the training cohort, a higher occurrence rate of IPN was observed in the high nCD64 index group compared to the moderate and low nCD64 index group (p < 0.001). Further analysis showed that nCD64 index was significant positive correlated with the incidence rate of IPN (p < 0.001, correlation coefficient = 0.972). Furthermore, logistic regression analysis showed that high expression of the nCD64 index on admission was a risk factor for the occurrence of IPN (OR = 2.971, p = 0.038). We further found that the nCD64 index of IPN patients was significantly higher than the Non-IPN patients on the days 1, 3, and 5 after admission, and the nCD64 index of IPN patients before and after the onset (p < 0.05). At the same time, this study revealed that the nCD64 index on admission showed good predictive efficacy for IPN (AUC = 0.859, sensitivity = 80.8%, specificity = 87.5%), which was comparable to APACHE II score. And this finding was further validated in an independent cohort of 100 participants (AUC = 0.919, Sensitivity = 100.0%, Specificity = 76.6%).ConclusionThis study demonstrated the clinical value of nCD64 index in patients with IPN patients for the first time through two independent cohort studies. The nCD64 index can be used as an early prediction and risk assessment tool for the occurrence of IPN, contributing to the improvement of patient outcomes and efficiency of medical resource allocation.

Project description:BackgroundIn acute pancreatitis, secondary infection of pancreatic necrosis is a complication that mostly necessitates interventional therapy. A reliable prediction of infected necrotizing pancreatitis would enable an early identification of patients at risk, which however, is not possible yet.MethodsThis study aims to identify parameters that are useful for the prediction of infected necrosis and to develop a prediction model for early detection. We conducted a retrospective analysis from the hospital information and reimbursement data system and screened 705 patients hospitalized with diagnosis of acute pancreatitis who underwent contrast-enhanced computed tomography and additional diagnostic puncture or drainage of necrotic collections. Both clinical and laboratory parameters were analyzed for an association with a microbiologically confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis. A prediction model was developed using a logistic regression analysis with stepwise inclusion of significant variables. The model quality was tested by receiver operating characteristics analysis and compared to single parameters and APACHE II score.ResultsWe identified a total of 89 patients with necrotizing pancreatitis, diagnosed by computed tomography, who additionally received biopsy or drainage. Out of these, 59 individuals had an infected necrosis. Eleven parameters showed a significant association with an infection including C-reactive protein, albumin, creatinine, and alcoholic etiology, which were independent variables in a predictive model. This model showed an area under the curve of 0.819, a sensitivity of 0.692 (95%-CI [0.547-0.809]), and a specificity of 0.840 (95%-CI [0.631-0.947]), outperforming single laboratory markers and APACHE II score. Even in cases of missing values predictability was reliable.ConclusionA model consisting of a few single blood parameters and etiology of pancreatitis might help for differentiation between infected and non-infected pancreatic necrosis and assist medical therapy in acute necrotizing pancreatitis.

Project description:Infection of pancreatic necrosis has a major impact on clinical course, management, and outcome in acute pancreatitis. Currently, guided fine needle aspiration is the only means for an early and accurate diagnosis of infected necrosis. Procalcitonin (PCT), a 116 amino acid propeptide of calcitonin, and interleukin 8 (IL-8), a strong neutrophil activating cytokine, are markers of severe inflammation and sepsis.To analyse the clinical value of PCT and IL-8 as biochemical parameters for predicting infected necrosis in acute pancreatitis.Fifty patients with acute pancreatitis entered this prospective study and were stratified into three groups according to morphological and bacteriological findings: 18 patients with oedematous pancreatitis (group I), 14 patients with sterile necrosis (group II), and 18 patients who developed infected necrosis a median of 13.5 days after the onset of symptoms (group III). After admission serum samples were drawn daily for two weeks. Concentrations of PCT and IL-8 were measured by chemoluminescent immunoassays (upper reference range 0.5 ng/ml for PCT and 70 pg/ml for IL-8). The routine parameter C-reactive protein was determined by laser nephelometry (upper reference range 10 mg/l).Median concentrations of PCT and IL-8 were significantly higher in patients with infected necrosis than in those with sterile necrosis during the observation period, whereas there was no difference in C-reactive protein. In oedematous pancreatitis overall median concentrations of all three parameters were low. By receiver operating characteristics best cut off levels for predicting infected necrosis or persisting pancreatic sepsis were 1.8 ng/ml for PCT and 112 pg/ml for IL-8. If these cut off levels were reached on at least two days, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for the prediction of infected necrosis were 94%, 91%, and 92% for PCT and 72%, 75%, and 74% for IL-8, respectively. After surgical treatment of infected necrosis median PCT and IL-8 values continued to be significantly higher in patients with persisting pancreatic sepsis (n = 11) compared with those having an uneventful postoperative course (n = 7). For the preoperative differentiation between infected necrosis and sterile necrosis guided fine needle aspiration was performed in 24 patients with necrotising pancreatitis and reached a diagnostic accuracy of 84% compared with 87% for PCT, and 68% for IL-8. There was no correlation between the aetiology of acute pancreatitis or the extent of necrosis and PCT or IL-8.PCT and IL-8 are found in high concentrations in infected necrosis and associated systemic complications in patients with acute pancreatitis. The course of PCT shows the closest correlation with the presence of infected necrosis. Monitoring of serum PCT is a potential new marker for the non-invasive and accurate prediction of infected necrosis as well as for the selection of patients with persisting septic complications after surgical debridement.

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Early prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis secondary to necrotizing pancreatitis.

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Early prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis secondary to necrotizing pancreatitis.

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