Dataset Information

A predictive model to identify Parkinson disease from administrative claims data.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To use administrative medical claims data to identify patients with incident Parkinson disease (PD) prior to diagnosis.

Methods

Using a population-based case-control study of incident PD in 2009 among Medicare beneficiaries aged 66-90 years (89,790 cases, 118,095 controls) and the elastic net algorithm, we developed a cross-validated model for predicting PD using only demographic data and 2004-2009 Medicare claims data. We then compared this model to more basic models containing only demographic data and diagnosis codes for constipation, taste/smell disturbance, and REM sleep behavior disorder, using each model's receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (AUC).

Results

We observed all established associations between PD and age, sex, race/ethnicity, tobacco smoking, and the above medical conditions. A model with those predictors had an AUC of only 0.670 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.668-0.673). In contrast, the AUC for a predictive model with 536 diagnosis and procedure codes was 0.857 (95% CI 0.855-0.859). At the optimal cut point, sensitivity was 73.5% and specificity was 83.2%.

Conclusions

Using only demographic data and selected diagnosis and procedure codes readily available in administrative claims data, it is possible to identify individuals with a high probability of eventually being diagnosed with PD.

SUBMITTER: Searles Nielsen S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5631173 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A predictive model to identify Parkinson disease from administrative claims data.

Searles Nielsen Susan S Warden Mark N MN Camacho-Soto Alejandra A Willis Allison W AW Wright Brenton A BA Racette Brad A BA

Neurology 20170901 14

<h4>Objective</h4>To use administrative medical claims data to identify patients with incident Parkinson disease (PD) prior to diagnosis.<h4>Methods</h4>Using a population-based case-control study of incident PD in 2009 among Medicare beneficiaries aged 66-90 years (89,790 cases, 118,095 controls) and the elastic net algorithm, we developed a cross-validated model for predicting PD using only demographic data and 2004-2009 Medicare claims data. We then compared this model to more basic models co ...[more]

PMID: 28864676

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Project description:BackgroundConfounding by disease severity is an issue in pharmacoepidemiology studies of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), due to channeling of sicker patients to certain therapies. To address the issue of limited clinical data for confounder adjustment, a patient-level prediction model to differentiate between patients prescribed and not prescribed advanced therapies was developed as a surrogate for disease severity, using all available data from a US claims database.MethodsData from adult RA patients were used to build regularized logistic regression models to predict current and future disease severity using a biologic or tofacitinib prescription claim as a surrogate for moderate-to-severe disease. Model discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver (AUC) operating characteristic curve, tested and trained in Optum Clinformatics® Extended DataMart (Optum) and additionally validated in three external IBM MarketScan® databases. The model was further validated in the Optum database across a range of patient cohorts.ResultsIn the Optum database (n = 68,608), the AUC for discriminating RA patients with a prescription claim for a biologic or tofacitinib versus those without in the 90 days following index diagnosis was 0.80. Model AUCs were 0.77 in IBM CCAE (n = 75,579) and IBM MDCD (n = 7,537) and 0.75 in IBM MDCR (n = 36,090). There was little change in the prediction model assessing discrimination 730 days following index diagnosis (prediction model AUC in Optum was 0.79).ConclusionsA prediction model demonstrated good discrimination across multiple claims databases to identify RA patients with a prescription claim for advanced therapies during different time-at-risk periods as proxy for current and future moderate-to-severe disease. This work provides a robust model-derived risk score that can be used as a potential covariate and proxy measure to adjust for confounding by severity in multivariable models in the RA population. An R package to develop the prediction model and risk score are available in an open source platform for researchers.

Dataset Information

A predictive model to identify Parkinson disease from administrative claims data.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A predictive model to identify Parkinson disease from administrative claims data.

Similar Datasets

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