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Labour force activity after 65: what explain recent trends in Denmark, Germany and Sweden?

ABSTRACT: In most OECD member countries labour force attachment, has increased in recent years not only in the age groups 60-64 years but also among people 65 years and older. Focus in this paper is on the trend in older workers' labour force participation in Denmark, Germany and Sweden since 2004. Main emphasis is given to people aged 65-69 years eligible for social security retirement programs from age 65. The gender aspect is included to accommodate different trends for women and men. To explain country differences in trends, the importance of changes in retirement policies of relevance for this age group and cohort relevant changes in education and health is examined and discussed. Further, country differences in the impact from education and health is examined. Results show that the largest increase in labour force participation among people aged 65-69 years has taken place in Sweden following by Germany, while the increase in Denmark is rather small. While the increase in Germany mainly seems to be a result of policy reforms, the increase in Sweden appear to be a result of a combination of policy changes and an increasing educational level. Financial incentives seem most important in Germany and only of minor importance in Denmark, where policy changes directed towards individuals above the age of 65 appear to have been too small so far to affect retirement behaviour significantly.

SUBMITTER: Larsen M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5632993 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Labour force activity after 65: what explain recent trends in Denmark, Germany and Sweden?

Larsen Mona M Pedersen Peder J PJ

Journal for labour market research 20170320 1

In most OECD member countries labour force attachment, has increased in recent years not only in the age groups 60-64 years but also among people 65 years and older. Focus in this paper is on the trend in older workers' labour force participation in Denmark, Germany and Sweden since 2004. Main emphasis is given to people aged 65-69 years eligible for social security retirement programs from age 65. The gender aspect is included to accommodate different trends for women and men. To explain countr ...[more]

PMID: 29071306

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Project description:This study used nationwide hip fracture data from Denmark and Sweden during 1987-2010 to examine effects of (birth) cohort and period. We found that time trends, cohort, and period effects were different in the two countries. Results also indicated that hip fracture rates may increase in the not so far future.IntroductionThe reasons for the downturn in hip fracture rates remain largely unclear but circumstances earlier in life seem important.MethodsWe ascertained hip fractures in the populations ≥50 years in Denmark and Sweden in national discharge registers. Country- and sex-specific age-period-cohort (APC) effects during 1987-2010 were evaluated by log-likelihood estimates in Poisson regression models presented as incidence rate ratios (IRR).ResultsThere were 399,596 hip fractures in SE and 248,773 in DK. Age-standardized hip fracture rate was stable in SE men but decreased in SE women and in DK. Combined period + cohort effects were generally stronger in SE than DK and in women than men. IRR per period ranged from 1.05 to 1.30 in SE and 0.95 to 1.21 in DK. IRR per birth cohort ranged from 1.07 to 3.13 in SE and 0.77 to 1.67 in DK. Relative period effects decreased with successive period in SE and described a convex curve in DK. Relative cohort effects increased with successive birth cohort in both countries but with lower risks for DK women and men and SE women born around the 1930s (age 75-86 years today and responsible for most hip fractures) partly explaining the recent downturn. Men and women born thereafter however seem to have a higher hip fracture risk, and we expect a reversal of the present decline in rates, with increasing hip fracture rates in both Denmark and Sweden during the upcoming decade.ConclusionsTime trends, cohort, and period effects were different in SE and DK. This may reflect differences in general health as evident in known differences in life expectancy, healthcare organization, and prevention such as use of anti-osteoporosis drugs. Analyses indicate that hip fracture rates may increase in the not so far future.

Dataset Information

Labour force activity after 65: what explain recent trends in Denmark, Germany and Sweden?

Publications

Labour force activity after 65: what explain recent trends in Denmark, Germany and Sweden?

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