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Predicting genomic selection efficiency to optimize calibration set and to assess prediction accuracy in highly structured populations.

ABSTRACT:

Key message

We propose a criterion to predict genomic selection efficiency for structured populations. This criterion is useful to define optimal calibration set and to estimate prediction reliability for multiparental populations. Genomic selection refers to the use of genotypic information for predicting the performance of selection candidates. It has been shown that prediction accuracy depends on various parameters including the composition of the calibration set (CS). Assessing the level of accuracy of a given prediction scenario is of highest importance because it can be used to optimize CS sampling before collecting phenotypes, and once the breeding values are predicted it informs the breeders about the reliability of these predictions. Different criteria were proposed to optimize CS sampling in highly diverse panels, which can be useful to screen collections of genotypes. But plant breeders often work on structured material such as biparental or multiparental populations, for which these criteria are less adapted. We derived from the generalized coefficient of determination (CD) theory different criteria to optimize CS sampling and to assess the reliability associated to predictions in structured populations. These criteria were evaluated on two nested association mapping (NAM) populations and two highly diverse panels of maize. They were efficient to sample optimized CS in most situations. They could also estimate at least partly the reliability associated to predictions between NAM families, but they could not estimate differences in the reliability associated to the predictions of NAM families using the highly diverse panels as calibration sets. We illustrated that the CD criteria could be adapted to various prediction scenarios including inter and intra-family predictions, resulting in higher prediction accuracies.

SUBMITTER: Rincent R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5641287 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting genomic selection efficiency to optimize calibration set and to assess prediction accuracy in highly structured populations.

Rincent R R Charcosset A A Moreau L L

TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik 20170809 11

<h4>Key message</h4>We propose a criterion to predict genomic selection efficiency for structured populations. This criterion is useful to define optimal calibration set and to estimate prediction reliability for multiparental populations. Genomic selection refers to the use of genotypic information for predicting the performance of selection candidates. It has been shown that prediction accuracy depends on various parameters including the composition of the calibration set (CS). Assessing the l ...[more]

PMID: 28795202

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Project description:Genomic selection based on genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) data could accelerate alfalfa yield gains, if it displayed moderate ability to predict parent breeding values. Its interest would be enhanced by predicting ability also for germplasm/reference populations other than those for which it was defined. Predicting accuracy may be influenced by statistical models, SNP calling procedures and missing data imputation strategies.Landrace and variety material from two genetically-contrasting reference populations, i.e., 124 elite genotypes adapted to the Po Valley (sub-continental climate; PV population) and 154 genotypes adapted to Mediterranean-climate environments (Me population), were genotyped by GBS and phenotyped in separate environments for dry matter yield of their dense-planted half-sib progenies. Both populations showed no sub-population genetic structure. Predictive accuracy was higher by joint rather than separate SNP calling for the two data sets, and using random forest imputation of missing data. Highest accuracy was obtained using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for PV, and Ridge Regression BLUP and SVR for Me germplasm. Bayesian methods (Bayes A, Bayes B and Bayesian Lasso) tended to be less accurate. Random Forest Regression was the least accurate model. Accuracy attained about 0.35 for Me in the range of 0.30-0.50 missing data, and 0.32 for PV at 0.50 missing data, using at least 10,000 SNP markers. Cross-population predictions based on a smaller subset of common SNPs implied a relative loss of accuracy of about 25% for Me and 30% for PV. Genome-wide association analyses based on large subsets of M. truncatula-aligned markers revealed many SNPs with modest association with yield, and some genome areas hosting putative QTLs. A comparison of genomic vs. conventional selection for parent breeding value assuming 1-year vs. 5-year selection cycles, respectively, indicated over three-fold greater predicted yield gain per unit time for genomic selection.Genomic selection for alfalfa yield is promising, based on its moderate prediction accuracy, moderate value of cross-population predictions, and lack of sub-population structure. There is limited scope for searching individual QTLs with overwhelming effect on yield. Some of our results can contribute to better design of genomic selection experiments for alfalfa and other crops with similar mating systems.

Dataset Information

Predicting genomic selection efficiency to optimize calibration set and to assess prediction accuracy in highly structured populations.

Key message

Publications

Predicting genomic selection efficiency to optimize calibration set and to assess prediction accuracy in highly structured populations.

Similar Datasets

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