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A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

ABSTRACT: Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The considered algorithms are able to deal with continuous time-to-event survival data. Feature selection and model building were performed on a multicentre cohort (213 patients) and validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods which achieve similar results, e.g. , MSR-RF:C-Index?=?0.71 and BT-COX: C-Index?=?0.70 in combination with Spearman feature selection. Using the best performing models, patients were stratified into groups of low and high risk of recurrence. Significant differences in LRC were obtained between both groups on the validation cohort. Based on the presented analysis, we identified a subset of algorithms which should be considered in future radiomics studies to develop stable and clinically relevant predictive models for time-to-event endpoints.

SUBMITTER: Leger S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5643429 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

Leger Stefan S Zwanenburg Alex A Pilz Karoline K Lohaus Fabian F Linge Annett A Zöphel Klaus K Kotzerke Jörg J Schreiber Andreas A Tinhofer Inge I Budach Volker V Sak Ali A Stuschke Martin M Balermpas Panagiotis P Rödel Claus C Ganswindt Ute U Belka Claus C Pigorsch Steffi S Combs Stephanie E SE Mönnich David D Zips Daniel D Krause Mechthild M Baumann Michael M Troost Esther G C EGC Löck Steffen S Richter Christian C

Scientific reports 20171016 1

Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall su ...[more]

PMID: 29038455

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Project description:PURPOSE:This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of using delta-radiomics to predict overall survival (OS) for patients with recurrent malignant gliomas treated by concurrent stereotactic radiosurgery and bevacizumab, and to investigate the effectiveness of machine learning methods for delta-radiomics feature selection and building classification models. METHODS:The pre-treatment, one-week post-treatment, and two-month post-treatment T1 and T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) MRI were acquired. 61 radiomic features (intensity histogram-based, morphological, and texture features) were extracted from the gross tumor volume in each image. Delta-radiomics were calculated between the pre-treatment and post-treatment features. Univariate Cox regression and 3 multivariate machine learning methods (L1-regularized logistic regression [L1-LR], random forest [RF] or neural networks [NN]) were used to select a reduced number of features, and 7 machine learning methods (L1-LR, L2-LR, RF, NN, kernel support vector machine [KSVM], linear support vector machine [LSVM], or naïve bayes [NB]) was used to build classification models for predicting OS. The performances of the total 21 model combinations built based on single-time-point radiomics (pre-treatment, one-week post-treatment, and two-month post-treatment) and delta-radiomics were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS:For a small cohort of 12 patients, delta-radiomics resulted in significantly higher AUC than pre-treatment radiomics (p-value<0.01). One-week/two-month delta-features resulted in significantly higher AUC (p-value<0.01) than the one-week/two-month post-treatment features, respectively. 18/21 model combinations were with higher AUC from one-week delta-features than two-month delta-features. With one-week delta-features, RF feature selector + KSVM classifier and RF feature selector + NN classifier showed the highest AUC of 0.889. CONCLUSIONS:The results indicated that delta-features could potentially provide better treatment assessment than single-time-point features. The treatment assessment is substantially affected by the time point for computing the delta-features and the combination of machine learning methods for feature selection and classification.

Project description:ObjectivesTo explore the feasibility of predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with midline glioma using multi-parameter magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features.MethodsData of 84 patients with midline gliomas were retrospectively collected, including 40 patients with OS > 12 months (28 cases were adults, 14 cases were H3 K27M-mutation) and 44 patients with OS < 12 months (29 cases were adults, 31 cases were H3 K27M-mutation). Features were extracted from the largest slice of tumors, which were manually segmented on T2-weighted (T2w), T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (T2 FLAIR), and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (T1c) images. Data were randomly divided into training (70%) and test cohorts (30%) and normalized and standardized using Z-scores. Feature dimensionality reduction was performed using the variance method and maximum relevance and minimum redundancy (mRMR) algorithm. We used the logistic regression algorithm to construct three models for T2w, T2 FLAIR, and T1c images as well as one combined model. The test cohort was used to evaluate the models, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, areas under the curve (AUCs), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were calculated. The nomogram of the combined model was built and evaluated using a calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical application value of the four models.ResultsA total of 1,316 features were extracted from T2w, T2 FLAIR, and T1c images, respectively. And then the best non-redundant features were selected from the extracted features using the variance method and mRMR. Finally, five features were extracted each from T2w, T2 FLAIR, and T1c images, and 12 features were extracted for the combined model. Four models were established using the optimal features. In the test cohort, the combined model performed the best out of all models. The AUCs of the T2w, T2 FLAIR, T1c, and combined models were 0.73, 0.78, 0.74, and 0.87, respectively, and accuracies were 0.72, 0.76, 0.72, and 0.84, respectively. The ROC curves and DCA showed that the combined model had the highest efficiency and most favorable clinical benefits.ConclusionThe combined radiomics model based on multi-parameter MRI features provided a reliable non-invasive method for the prognostic prediction of midline gliomas.

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Dataset Information

A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

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A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

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