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A Supervised Statistical Learning Approach for Accurate Legionella pneumophila Source Attribution during Outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: Public health agencies are increasingly relying on genomics during Legionnaires' disease investigations. However, the causative bacterium (Legionella pneumophila) has an unusual population structure, with extreme temporal and spatial genome sequence conservation. Furthermore, Legionnaires' disease outbreaks can be caused by multiple L. pneumophila genotypes in a single source. These factors can confound cluster identification using standard phylogenomic methods. Here, we show that a statistical learning approach based on L. pneumophila core genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) comparisons eliminates ambiguity for defining outbreak clusters and accurately predicts exposure sources for clinical cases. We illustrate the performance of our method by genome comparisons of 234 L. pneumophila isolates obtained from patients and cooling towers in Melbourne, Australia, between 1994 and 2014. This collection included one of the largest reported Legionnaires' disease outbreaks, which involved 125 cases at an aquarium. Using only sequence data from L. pneumophila cooling tower isolates and including all core genome variation, we built a multivariate model using discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) to find cooling tower-specific genomic signatures and then used it to predict the origin of clinical isolates. Model assignments were 93% congruent with epidemiological data, including the aquarium Legionnaires' disease outbreak and three other unrelated outbreak investigations. We applied the same approach to a recently described investigation of Legionnaires' disease within a UK hospital and observed a model predictive ability of 86%. We have developed a promising means to breach L. pneumophila genetic diversity extremes and provide objective source attribution data for outbreak investigations.IMPORTANCE Microbial outbreak investigations are moving to a paradigm where whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic trees are used to support epidemiological investigations. It is critical that outbreak source predictions are accurate, particularly for pathogens, like Legionella pneumophila, which can spread widely and rapidly via cooling system aerosols, causing Legionnaires' disease. Here, by studying hundreds of Legionella pneumophila genomes collected over 21 years around a major Australian city, we uncovered limitations with the phylogenetic approach that could lead to a misidentification of outbreak sources. We implement instead a statistical learning technique that eliminates the ambiguity of inferring disease transmission from phylogenies. Our approach takes geolocation information and core genome variation from environmental L. pneumophila isolates to build statistical models that predict with high confidence the environmental source of clinical L. pneumophila during disease outbreaks. We show the versatility of the technique by applying it to unrelated Legionnaires' disease outbreaks in Australia and the UK.

SUBMITTER: Buultjens AH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5648911 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Supervised Statistical Learning Approach for Accurate Legionella pneumophila Source Attribution during Outbreaks.

Buultjens Andrew H AH Chua Kyra Y L KYL Baines Sarah L SL Kwong Jason J Gao Wei W Cutcher Zoe Z Adcock Stuart S Ballard Susan S Schultz Mark B MB Tomita Takehiro T Subasinghe Nela N Carter Glen P GP Pidot Sacha J SJ Franklin Lucinda L Seemann Torsten T Gonçalves Da Silva Anders A Howden Benjamin P BP Stinear Timothy P TP

Applied and environmental microbiology 20171017 21

Public health agencies are increasingly relying on genomics during Legionnaires' disease investigations. However, the causative bacterium (<i>Legionella pneumophila</i>) has an unusual population structure, with extreme temporal and spatial genome sequence conservation. Furthermore, Legionnaires' disease outbreaks can be caused by multiple <i>L. pneumophila</i> genotypes in a single source. These factors can confound cluster identification using standard phylogenomic methods. Here, we show that ...[more]

PMID: 28821546

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Project description:Fundamental to effective Legionnaires' disease outbreak control is the ability to rapidly identify the environmental source(s) of the causative agent, Legionella pneumophila. Genomics has revolutionized pathogen surveillance, but L. pneumophila has a complex ecology and population structure that can limit source inference based on standard core genome phylogenetics. Here, we present a powerful machine learning approach that assigns the geographical source of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks more accurately than current core genome comparisons. Models were developed upon 534 L. pneumophila genome sequences, including 149 genomes linked to 20 previously reported Legionnaires' disease outbreaks through detailed case investigations. Our classification models were developed in a cross-validation framework using only environmental L. pneumophila genomes. Assignments of clinical isolate geographic origins demonstrated high predictive sensitivity and specificity of the models, with no false positives or false negatives for 13 out of 20 outbreak groups, despite the presence of within-outbreak polyclonal population structure. Analysis of the same 534-genome panel with a conventional phylogenomic tree and a core genome multi-locus sequence type allelic distance-based classification approach revealed that our machine learning method had the highest overall classification performance-agreement with epidemiological information. Our multivariate statistical learning approach maximizes the use of genomic variation data and is thus well-suited for supporting Legionnaires' disease outbreak investigations.IMPORTANCEIdentifying the sources of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks is crucial for effective control. Current genomic methods, while useful, often fall short due to the complex ecology and population structure of Legionella pneumophila, the causative agent. Our study introduces a high-performing machine learning approach for more accurate geographical source attribution of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks. Developed using cross-validation on environmental L. pneumophila genomes, our models demonstrate excellent predictive sensitivity and specificity. Importantly, this new approach outperforms traditional methods like phylogenomic trees and core genome multi-locus sequence typing, proving more efficient at leveraging genomic variation data to infer outbreak sources. Our machine learning algorithms, harnessing both core and accessory genomic variation, offer significant promise in public health settings. By enabling rapid and precise source identification in Legionnaires' disease outbreaks, such approaches have the potential to expedite intervention efforts and curtail disease transmission.

Project description:A large number of highly pathogenic bacteria utilize secretion systems to translocate effector proteins into host cells. Using these effectors, the bacteria subvert host cell processes during infection. Legionella pneumophila translocates effectors via the Icm/Dot type-IV secretion system and to date, approximately 100 effectors have been identified by various experimental and computational techniques. Effector identification is a critical first step towards the understanding of the pathogenesis system in L. pneumophila as well as in other bacterial pathogens. Here, we formulate the task of effector identification as a classification problem: each L. pneumophila open reading frame (ORF) was classified as either effector or not. We computationally defined a set of features that best distinguish effectors from non-effectors. These features cover a wide range of characteristics including taxonomical dispersion, regulatory data, genomic organization, similarity to eukaryotic proteomes and more. Machine learning algorithms utilizing these features were then applied to classify all the ORFs within the L. pneumophila genome. Using this approach we were able to predict and experimentally validate 40 new effectors, reaching a success rate of above 90%. Increasing the number of validated effectors to around 140, we were able to gain novel insights into their characteristics. Effectors were found to have low G+C content, supporting the hypothesis that a large number of effectors originate via horizontal gene transfer, probably from their protozoan host. In addition, effectors were found to cluster in specific genomic regions. Finally, we were able to provide a novel description of the C-terminal translocation signal required for effector translocation by the Icm/Dot secretion system. To conclude, we have discovered 40 novel L. pneumophila effectors, predicted over a hundred additional highly probable effectors, and shown the applicability of machine learning algorithms for the identification and characterization of bacterial pathogenesis determinants.

Project description:BackgroundGenomic data-based machine learning tools are promising for real-time surveillance activities performing source attribution of foodborne bacteria such as Listeria monocytogenes. Given the heterogeneity of machine learning practices, our aim was to identify those influencing the source prediction performance of the usual holdout method combined with the repeated k-fold cross-validation method.MethodsA large collection of 1 100 L. monocytogenes genomes with known sources was built according to several genomic metrics to ensure authenticity and completeness of genomic profiles. Based on these genomic profiles (i.e. 7-locus alleles, core alleles, accessory genes, core SNPs and pan kmers), we developed a versatile workflow assessing prediction performance of different combinations of training dataset splitting (i.e. 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90%), data preprocessing (i.e. with or without near-zero variance removal), and learning models (i.e. BLR, ERT, RF, SGB, SVM and XGB). The performance metrics included accuracy, Cohen's kappa, F1-score, area under the curves from receiver operating characteristic curve, precision recall curve or precision recall gain curve, and execution time.ResultsThe testing average accuracies from accessory genes and pan kmers were significantly higher than accuracies from core alleles or SNPs. While the accuracies from 70 and 80% of training dataset splitting were not significantly different, those from 80% were significantly higher than the other tested proportions. The near-zero variance removal did not allow to produce results for 7-locus alleles, did not impact significantly the accuracy for core alleles, accessory genes and pan kmers, and decreased significantly accuracy for core SNPs. The SVM and XGB models did not present significant differences in accuracy between each other and reached significantly higher accuracies than BLR, SGB, ERT and RF, in this order of magnitude. However, the SVM model required more computing power than the XGB model, especially for high amount of descriptors such like core SNPs and pan kmers.ConclusionsIn addition to recommendations about machine learning practices for L. monocytogenes source attribution based on genomic data, the present study also provides a freely available workflow to solve other balanced or unbalanced multiclass phenotypes from binary and categorical genomic profiles of other microorganisms without source code modifications.

Dataset Information

A Supervised Statistical Learning Approach for Accurate Legionella pneumophila Source Attribution during Outbreaks.

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A Supervised Statistical Learning Approach for Accurate Legionella pneumophila Source Attribution during Outbreaks.

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