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Projections of non-communicable disease and health care costs among HIV-positive persons in Italy and the U.S.A.: A modelling study.

ABSTRACT: Country-specific forecasts of the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in ageing HIV-positive patients will be key to guide future HIV policies. We provided the first national forecasts for Italy and the Unites States of America (USA) and quantified direct cost of caring for these increasingly complex patients.We adapted an individual-based model of ageing HIV-positive patients to Italy and the USA, which followed patients on HIV-treatment as they aged and developed NCDs (chronic kidney disease, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, non-AIDS malignancies, myocardial infarctions and strokes). The models were parameterised using data on 7,469 HIV-positive patients from the Italian Cohort Naïve to Antiretrovirals Foundation Study and 3,748 commercially-insured patients in the USA and extrapolated to national level using national surveillance data.The model predicted that mean age of HIV-positive patients will increase from 46 to 59 in Italy and from 49 to 58 in the USA in 2015-2035. The proportion of patients in Italy and the USA diagnosed with ?1 NCD is estimated to increase from 64% and 71% in 2015 to 89% and 89% by 2035, respectively, driven by moderate cardiovascular disease (CVD) (hypertension and dyslipidaemia), diabetes and malignancies in both countries. NCD treatment costs as a proportion of total direct HIV costs will increase from 11% to 23% in Italy and from 40% to 56% in the USA in 2015-2035.HIV patient profile in Italy and the USA is shifting to older patients diagnosed with multiple co-morbidity. This will increase NCD treatment costs and require multi-disciplinary patient management.

SUBMITTER: Smit M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5653300 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projections of non-communicable disease and health care costs among HIV-positive persons in Italy and the U.S.A.: A modelling study.

Smit Mikaela M Cassidy Rachel R Cozzi-Lepri Alessandro A Quiros-Roldan Eugenia E Girardi Enrico E Mammone Alessia A Antinori Andrea A Saracino Annalisa A Bai Francesca F Rusconi Stefano S Magnani Giacomo G Castelli Francesco F Hsue Priscilla P d'Arminio Monforte Antonella A Hallett Timothy B TB

PloS one 20171023 10

<h4>Background</h4>Country-specific forecasts of the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in ageing HIV-positive patients will be key to guide future HIV policies. We provided the first national forecasts for Italy and the Unites States of America (USA) and quantified direct cost of caring for these increasingly complex patients.<h4>Methods and setting</h4>We adapted an individual-based model of ageing HIV-positive patients to Italy and the USA, which followed patients on HIV-treatment ...[more]

PMID: 29059202

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Project description:ImportanceThe Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic has evolved, with an increasing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden emerging and need for long-term management, yet there are limited data to help delineate the optimal care model to screen for NCDs for this patient population.ObjectiveThe primary aim was to compare rates of NCD preventive screening in persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) by type of HIV care model, focusing on metabolic/cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer screening. We hypothesized that primary care models that included generalists would have higher preventive screening rates.DesignProspective observational cohort study.SettingPartners HealthCare System (PHS) encompassing Brigham & Women's Hospital, Massachusetts General Hospital, and affiliated community health centers.ParticipantsPLWHA age >18 engaged in active primary care at PHS.ExposureHIV care model categorized as infectious disease (ID) providers only, generalist providers only, or ID plus generalist providers.Main outcome(s) and measures(s)Odds of screening for metabolic/CVD outcomes including hypertension (HTN), obesity, hyperlipidemia (HL), and diabetes (DM) and cancer including colorectal cancer (CRC), cervical cancer, and breast cancer.ResultsIn a cohort of 1565 PLWHA, distribution by HIV care model was 875 ID (56%), 90 generalists (6%), and 600 ID plus generalists (38%). Patients in the generalist group had lower odds of viral suppression but similar CD4 counts and ART exposure as compared with ID and ID plus generalist groups. In analyses adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical covariates and clustering within provider, there were no significant differences in metabolic/CVD or cancer screening rates among the three HIV care models.ConclusionsThere were no notable differences in metabolic/CVD or cancer screening rates by HIV care model after adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. These findings suggest that HIV patients receive similar preventive health care for NCDs independent of HIV care model.

Project description:BackgroundMeeting the contraceptive needs of women living with HIV (WLHIV) has primary health benefits for women, in addition to being a key element to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission. This analysis will estimate the current number of infant HIV infections prevented by contraception in the era of increased HIV treatment coverage and; 2) model the additional HIV benefits of preventing unintended births to WLHIV.MethodsSecondary data analysis was conducted using publicly available data from the United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Population Division, Demographic Health Surveys, and peer-review literature. National data from 70 countries, that had a UNAIDS estimate for the number of WLHIV nationally, were combined into country-level models. Models estimated the current number of infant HIV infections averted by contraception annually and potentially averted if unintended births to WLHIV were prevented. Estimates take into account pregnancy and live birth rates, contraceptive coverage, contraceptive method mix and failure rates, and HIV treatment coverage during pregnancy to prevent mother to child transmission.ResultsContraception use among WLHIV prevents an estimated 43,559 new infant HIV infections annually across 70 countries. Countries with the largest number of infant infections averted by contraception included South Africa (9441), Nigeria (4195), Kenya (3508), Zimbabwe (2586), and India (2145). Preventing unintended births to WLHIV could avert an additional 43,768 new infant infections per year, with the greatest potential gains to be made in South Africa (12,036), Nigeria (2770), Uganda (2552), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2324).ConclusionsContraception continues to play an integral role in global HIV prevention efforts in the era of increasing HIV treatment coverage, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Broad contraceptive availability, increased contraceptive voluntarism and method mix are key components to preventing unintended births and ending new infant HIV infections worldwide.

Project description:IntroductionGreat strides in responding to the HIV epidemic have led to improved access to and uptake of HIV services in Guyana, a lower-middle-income country with a generalized HIV epidemic. Despite efforts to scale up HIV treatment and adopt the test and start strategy, little is known about costs of HIV services across the care cascade.MethodsWe collected cost data from the national laboratory and nine selected treatment facilities in five of the country's ten Regions, and estimated the costs associated with HIV testing and services (HTS) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) from a provider perspective from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016. We then used the unit costs to construct four resource allocation scenarios. In the first two scenarios, we calculated how close Guyana would currently be to its 2020 targets if the allocation of funding across programs and regions over 2017-2020 had (a) remained unchanged from latest-reported levels, or (b) been optimally distributed to minimize incidence and deaths. In the next two, we estimated the resources that would have been required to meet the 2020 targets if those resources had been distributed (a) according to latest-reported patterns, or (b) optimally to minimize incidence and deaths.ResultsThe mean cost per test was US$15 and the mean cost per person tested positive was US$796. The mean annual cost per of maintaining established adult and pediatric patients on ART were US$428 and US$410, respectively. The mean annual cost of maintaining virally suppressed patients was US$648. Cost variation across sites may suggest opportunities for improvements in efficiency, or may reflect variation in facility type and patient volume. There may also be scope for improvements in allocative efficiency; we estimated a 28% reduction in the total resources required to meet Guyana's 2020 targets if funds had been optimally distributed to minimize infections and deaths.ConclusionsWe provide the first estimates of costs along the HIV cascade in the Caribbean and assessed efficiencies using novel context-specific data on the costs associated with diagnostic, treatment, and viral suppression. The findings call for better targeting of services, and efficient service delivery models and resource allocation, while scaling up HIV services to maximize investment impact.

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Projections of non-communicable disease and health care costs among HIV-positive persons in Italy and the U.S.A.: A modelling study.

Publications

Projections of non-communicable disease and health care costs among HIV-positive persons in Italy and the U.S.A.: A modelling study.

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