Dataset Information

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity.

ABSTRACT: Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world.

SUBMITTER: Perez-Saez J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5654324 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity.

Perez-Saez Javier J King Aaron A AA Rinaldo Andrea A Yunus Mohammad M Faruque Abu S G ASG Pascual Mercedes M

Advances in water resources 20161127

Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on ...[more]

PMID: 29081572

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Project description:BackgroundCholera mainly affects developing countries where safe water supply and sanitation infrastructure are often rudimentary. Sub-Saharan Africa is a cholera hotspot. Effective cholera control requires not only a professional assessment, but also consideration of community-based priorities. The present work compares local sociocultural features of endemic cholera in urban and rural sites from three field studies in southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (SE-DRC), western Kenya and Zanzibar.MethodsA vignette-based semistructured interview was used in 2008 in Zanzibar to study sociocultural features of cholera-related illness among 356 men and women from urban and rural communities. Similar cross-sectional surveys were performed in western Kenya (n = 379) and in SE-DRC (n = 360) in 2010. Systematic comparison across all settings considered the following domains: illness identification; perceived seriousness, potential fatality and past household episodes; illness-related experience; meaning; knowledge of prevention; help-seeking behavior; and perceived vulnerability.ResultsCholera is well known in all three settings and is understood to have a significant impact on people's lives. Its social impact was mainly characterized by financial concerns. Problems with unsafe water, sanitation and dirty environments were the most common perceived causes across settings; nonetheless, non-biomedical explanations were widespread in rural areas of SE-DRC and Zanzibar. Safe food and water and vaccines were prioritized for prevention in SE-DRC. Safe water was prioritized in western Kenya along with sanitation and health education. The latter two were also prioritized in Zanzibar. Use of oral rehydration solutions and rehydration was a top priority everywhere; healthcare facilities were universally reported as a primary source of help. Respondents in SE-DRC and Zanzibar reported cholera as affecting almost everybody without differentiating much for gender, age and class. In contrast, in western Kenya, gender differentiation was pronounced, and children and the poor were regarded as most vulnerable to cholera.ConclusionsThis comprehensive review identified common and distinctive features of local understandings of cholera. Classical treatment (that is, rehydration) was highlighted as a priority for control in the three African study settings and is likely to be identified in the region beyond. Findings indicate the value of insight from community studies to guide local program planning for cholera control and elimination.

Project description:BackgroundThe spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases that are environmentally driven reflect the combined effects of transmission dynamics and environmental heterogeneity. They contain important information on different routes of transmission, including the role of environmental reservoirs. Consideration of the spatial component in infectious disease dynamics has led to insights on the propagation of fronts at the level of counties in rabies in the US, and the metapopulation behavior at the level of cities in childhood diseases such as measles in the UK, both at relatively coarse scales. As epidemiological data on individual infections become available, spatio-temporal patterns can be examined at higher resolutions.MethodsThe extensive spatio-temporal data set for cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh, maps the individual location of cases from 1983 to 2003. This unique record allows us to examine the spatial structure of cholera outbreaks, to address the role of primary transmission, occurring from an aquatic reservoir to the human host, and that of secondary transmission, involving a feedback between current and past levels of infection. We use Ripley's K and L indices and bootstrapping methods to evaluate the occurrence of spatial clustering in the cases during outbreaks using different temporal windows. The spatial location of cases was also confronted against the spatial location of water sources.ResultsSpatial clustering of cholera cases was detected at different temporal and spatial scales. Cases relative to water sources also exhibit spatial clustering.ConclusionsThe clustering of cases supports an important role of secondary transmission in the dynamics of cholera epidemics in Matlab, Bangladesh. The spatial clustering of cases relative to water sources, and its timing, suggests an effective role of water reservoirs during the onset of cholera outbreaks. Once primary transmission has initiated an outbreak, secondary transmission takes over and plays a fundamental role in shaping the epidemics in this endemic area.

Project description:BackgroundThe reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region's urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced.Methodology/principal findingsHaving collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti's distribution under today's climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months.Conclusions/significanceIn the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying through the installation of large domestic water storing containers. The expansion of this efficient dengue vector presents both an emerging and re-emerging disease risk to Australia. Therefore, if the installation and maintenance of domestic water storage tanks is not tightly controlled, Ae. aegypti could expand its range again and cohabit with the majority of Australia's population, presenting a high potential dengue transmission risk during our warm summers.

Dataset Information

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity.

Publications

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity.

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