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Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study.

ABSTRACT: Cardiovascular mortality risk is high for peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients but it varies considerably among individuals. There is no clinical tool to predict cardiovascular mortality for PD patients yet. Therefore, we developed a cardiovascular mortality risk nomogram in a PD patient cohort. We derived and internally validated the nomogram in incident adult PD patients randomly assigned to a training (N?=?918) or a validation (N?=?460) dataset. The nomogram was built using the LASSO Cox regression model. Increasing age, history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes were consistent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Low hemoglobin and serum albumin, high hypersensitive C-reactive protein and decreasing 24?hours urine output were identified as non-traditional cardiovascular risk predictors. In the validation dataset, the above nomogram performed good discrimination (1 year c-statistic?=?0.83; 3 year c-statistic?=?0.78) and calibration. This tool can classify patients between those at high risk of cardiovascular mortality (high-risk group) and those of low risk (low-risk group). Cardiovascular mortality was significantly different in the internal validation set of patients for the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (HR 3.77, 2.14-6.64; p?

SUBMITTER: Xia X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5654762 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study.

Xia Xi X Zhao Chen C Luo Qimei Q Zhou Qian Q Lin Zhenchuan Z Guo Xiaobo X Wang Xueqin X Lin Jianxiong J Yang Xiao X Yu Xueqing X Huang Fengxian F

Scientific reports 20171024 1

Cardiovascular mortality risk is high for peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients but it varies considerably among individuals. There is no clinical tool to predict cardiovascular mortality for PD patients yet. Therefore, we developed a cardiovascular mortality risk nomogram in a PD patient cohort. We derived and internally validated the nomogram in incident adult PD patients randomly assigned to a training (N = 918) or a validation (N = 460) dataset. The nomogram was built using the LASSO Cox regress ...[more]

PMID: 29066841

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Project description:BackgroundStudies on the association between iron supplementation and mortality in dialysis patients are rare and conflicting.MethodsIn our observational single-center cohort study (INVOR study) we prospectively studied 235 incident dialysis patients. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models using all measured laboratory values for up to 7.6 years were applied to study the association between iron supplementation and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and sepsis-related mortality. Furthermore, the time-dependent association of ferritin levels with mortality in patients with normal C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (<0.5 mg/dL) and elevated CRP levels (≧0.5 mg/dL) was evaluated by using non-linear P-splines to allow flexible modeling of the association.ResultsOne hundred and ninety-one (81.3%) patients received intravenous iron, 13 (5.5%) patients oral iron, whereas 31 (13.2%) patients were never supplemented with iron throughout the observation period. Eighty-two (35%) patients died during a median follow-up of 34 months, 38 patients due to cardiovascular events and 21 patients from sepsis. Baseline CRP levels were not different between patients with and without iron supplementation. However, baseline serum ferritin levels were lower in patients receiving iron during follow up (median 93 vs 251 ng/mL, p<0.001). Iron supplementation was associated with a significantly reduced all-cause mortality [HR (95%CI): 0.22 (0.08-0.58); p = 0.002] and a reduced cardiovascular and sepsis-related mortality [HR (95%CI): 0.31 (0.09-1.04); p = 0.06]. Increasing ferritin concentrations in patients with normal CRP were associated with a decreasing mortality, whereas in patients with elevated CRP values ferritin levels>800 ng/mL were linked with increased mortality.ConclusionsIron supplementation is associated with reduced all-cause mortality in incident dialysis patients. While serum ferritin levels up to 800 ng/mL appear to be safe, higher ferritin levels are associated with increased mortality in the setting of concomitant inflammation.

Project description:Objectives:The monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), as a new marker of the systemic inflammatory response, is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the general population and hemodialysis patients. However, the association between the MLR and CVD mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) has received little attention. Methods:In this multicenter retrospective cohort study, 1753 incident PD patients from November 1, 2005, to June 30, 2017, with a baseline MLR were enrolled. The primary endpoint was CVD mortality. The association of MLR with CVD mortality was assessed using a multivariable-adjusted Cox model and the Fine and Gray competing risk model. Results:Of 1753 patients, the mean age was 51.1 ± 14.9 years, 56.9% of patients were male, and the Charlson comorbidity index was 4.29 ± 1.75. During the follow-up period of 31.2 ± 18.4 months, 368 patients died, of which 200 (54.3%) deaths were caused by CVD events. CVD mortality rates for the lowest, middle, and highest MLR tertiles were 70.6, 78.4, and 88.9 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that survival rates were significantly different among the three MLR groups (log?rank = 22.41, P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that survival rates were significantly different among the three MLR groups (log?rank = 22.41, P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that survival rates were significantly different among the three MLR groups (log?rank = 22.41, P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that survival rates were significantly different among the three MLR groups (log?rank = 22.41, P < 0.001). After adjusting for confounding factors, the highest MLR tertile was significantly associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for CVD mortality of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.51, P = 0.016). The Fine and Gray method analysis showed that using all-cause mortality as competing risk, the highest MLR tertile remained an independent predictor of CVD mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.10-2.47, P = 0.021). Conclusions:Higher MLR levels at the commencement of PD may be independently associated with increased CVD mortality in PD patients.

Dataset Information

Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study.

Publications

Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study.

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