Dataset Information

Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis.

ABSTRACT: Recently developed methods of longitudinal discriminant analysis allow for classification of subjects into prespecified prognostic groups using longitudinal history of both continuous and discrete biomarkers. The classification uses Bayesian estimates of the group membership probabilities for each prognostic group. These estimates are derived from a multivariate generalised linear mixed model of the biomarker's longitudinal evolution in each of the groups and can be updated each time new data is available for a patient, providing a dynamic (over time) allocation scheme. However, the precision of the estimated group probabilities differs for each patient and also over time. This precision can be assessed by looking at credible intervals for the group membership probabilities. In this paper, we propose a new allocation rule that incorporates credible intervals for use in context of a dynamic longitudinal discriminant analysis and show that this can decrease the number of false positives in a prognostic test, improving the positive predictive value. We also establish that by leaving some patients unclassified for a certain period, the classification accuracy of those patients who are classified can be improved, giving increased confidence to clinicians in their decision making. Finally, we show that determining a stopping rule dynamically can be more accurate than specifying a set time point at which to decide on a patient's status. We illustrate our methodology using data from patients with epilepsy and show how patients who fail to achieve adequate seizure control are more accurately identified using credible intervals compared to existing methods.

SUBMITTER: Hughes DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5655752 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis.

Hughes David M DM Komárek Arnošt A Bonnett Laura J LJ Czanner Gabriela G García-Fiñana Marta M

Statistics in medicine 20170801 24

Recently developed methods of longitudinal discriminant analysis allow for classification of subjects into prespecified prognostic groups using longitudinal history of both continuous and discrete biomarkers. The classification uses Bayesian estimates of the group membership probabilities for each prognostic group. These estimates are derived from a multivariate generalised linear mixed model of the biomarker's longitudinal evolution in each of the groups and can be updated each time new data is ...[more]

PMID: 28762546

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Project description:The cannabis community typically uses the terms "Sativa" and "Indica" to characterize drug strains with high tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) levels. Due to large scale, extensive, and unrecorded hybridization in the past 40 years, this vernacular naming convention has become unreliable and inadequate for identifying or selecting strains for clinical research and medicinal production. Additionally, cannabidiol (CBD) dominant strains and balanced strains (or intermediate strains, which have intermediate levels of THC and CBD), are not included in the current classification studies despite the increasing research interest in the therapeutic potential of CBD. This paper is the first in a series of studies proposing that a new classification system be established based on genome-wide variation and supplemented by data on secondary metabolites and morphological characteristics. This study performed a whole-genome sequencing of 23 cannabis strains marketed in Canada, aligned sequences to a reference genome, and, after filtering for minor allele frequency of 10%, identified 137,858 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) was applied to these SNPs and further identified 344 structural SNPs, which classified individual strains into five chemotype-aligned groups: one CBD dominant, one balanced, and three THC dominant clusters. These structural SNPs were all multiallelic and were predominantly tri-allelic (339/344). The largest portion of these SNPs (37%) occurred on the same chromosome containing genes for CBD acid synthases (CBDAS) and THC acid synthases (THCAS). The remainder (63%) were located on the other nine chromosomes. These results showed that the genetic differences between modern cannabis strains were at a whole-genome level and not limited to THC or CBD production. These SNPs contained enough genetic variation for classifying individual strains into corresponding chemotypes. In an effort to elucidate the confused genetic backgrounds of commercially available cannabis strains, this classification attempt investigated the utility of DAPC for classifying modern cannabis strains and for identifying structural SNPs.

Dataset Information

Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis.

Publications

Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis.

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