Recent loss of closed forests is associated with Ebola virus disease outbreaks.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Olivero J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5662765 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Outbreaks of Ebola virus can cause substantial morbidity and mortality in affected regions. The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014. To develop a better understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics, we revisited data from the first known Ebola outbreak, which occurred in 1976 in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo). By fitting a mathematical model to time series stratified by disease onset, outcome and source of infection, we were able to estimate several epidemiological quantities that have previously proved challenging to measure, including the contribution of hospital and community infection to transmission. We found evidence that transmission decreased considerably before the closure of the hospital, suggesting that the decline of the outbreak was most likely the result of changes in host behaviour. Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak. Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance. At the same time, the relatively high person-to-person basic reproduction number suggests that Ebola would have been difficult to control through hospital-based infection control measures alone.
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Project description:The average time required to detect an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak following spillover of Ebola virus (EBOV) to a primary human case has remained essentially unchanged for over 40 years, with some of the longest delays in detection occurring in recent decades. In this review, our aim was to examine the relationship between delays in detection of EVD and the duration and size of outbreaks, and we report that longer delays are associated with longer and larger EVD outbreaks. Historically, EVD outbreaks have typically been comprised of less than 100 cases (median?=?60) and have lasted less than 4 months (median?=?118 days). The ongoing outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo, together with the 2013-2016 west Africa outbreak, are stark outliers amidst these trends and had two of the longest delays in detection on record. While significant progress has been made in the development of EVD countermeasures, implementation during EVD outbreaks is problematic. Thus, EVD surveillance must be improved by the broad deployment of modern diagnostic tools, as prompt recognition of EVD has the potential to stem early transmission and ultimately limit the duration and size of outbreaks.
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Project description:Tropical forests are undergoing land use change in many regions of the world, including the African continent. Human populations living close to forest margins fragmented and disturbed by deforestation may be particularly exposed to zoonotic infections because of the higher likelihood for humans to be in contact with disease reservoirs. Quantitative analysis of the nexus between deforestation and the emergence of Ebola virus disease (EVD), however, is still missing. Here we use land cover change data in conjunction with EVD outbreak records to investigate the association between recent (2004-2014) outbreaks in West and Central Africa, and patterns of land use change in the region. We show how in these EVD outbreaks the index cases in humans (i.e. spillover from wildlife reservoirs) occurred mostly in hotspots of forest fragmentation.
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Project description:BackgroundThe origins of Ebola disease outbreaks remain enigmatic. Historically outbreaks have been attributed to spillover events from wildlife. However, recent data suggest that some outbreaks may originate from human-to-human transmission of prior outbreak strains instead of spillover. Clarifying the origins of Ebola disease outbreaks could improve detection and mitigation of future outbreaks.MethodsWe reviewed the origins of all Ebola disease outbreaks from 1976-2022 to analyze the earliest cases and characteristics of each outbreak. The epidemiology and phylogenetic relationships of outbreak strains were used to further identify the likely source of each outbreak.ResultsFrom 1976-2022 there were 35 Ebola disease outbreaks with 48 primary/index cases. While the majority of outbreaks were associated with wildlife spillover, resurgence of human-to-human transmission could account for roughly a quarter of outbreaks caused by Ebola virus. Larger outbreaks were more likely to lead to possible resurgence, and nosocomial transmission was associated with the majority of outbreaks.ConclusionWhile spillover from wildlife has been a source for many Ebola disease outbreaks, multiple outbreaks may have originated from flare-ups of prior outbreak strains. Improving access to diagnostics as well as identifying groups at risk for resurgence of ebolaviruses will be crucial to preventing future outbreaks.
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Project description:ImportanceSurvivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD) may experience ocular sequelae. Comparison with antibody-negative individuals from the local population is required to characterize the disease.ObjectiveTo assess features of ophthalmic disease specific to EVD.Design, setting, and participantsThis baseline cross-sectional analysis of survivors of EVD and their close contacts was conducted within PREVAIL III, a 5-year, longitudinal cohort study. Participants who enrolled at John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Liberia, West Africa from June 2015 to March 2016 were included in this analysis. Close contacts were defined as household members or sex partners of survivors of EVD. Data were analyzed from July 2016 to July 2020.ExposuresAll participants, both survivors and close contacts, underwent testing of IgG antibody levels against Ebola virus surface glycoprotein.Main outcomes and measuresOcular symptoms, anterior and posterior ophthalmologic examination findings, and optical coherence tomography images were compared between antibody-positive survivors and antibody-negative close contacts.ResultsA total of 564 antibody-positive survivors (320 [56.7%] female; mean [SD] age, 30.3 [14.0] years) and 635 antibody-negative close contacts (347 [54.6%] female; mean [SD] age, 25.8 [15.5] years) were enrolled in this study. Survivors were more likely to demonstrate color vision deficit (28.9% vs 19.0%, odds ratio [OR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.1) and lower intraocular pressure (12.4 vs 13.5 mm Hg; mean difference, -1.2 mm Hg; 95% CI, -1.6 to -0.8 mm Hg) compared with close contacts. Dilated fundus examination revealed a higher percentage of vitreous cells (7.8% vs 0.5%; OR, 16.6; 95% CI, 5.0-55.2) and macular scars (4.6% vs 1.6%; OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.4-5.5) in survivors than in close contacts. Uveitis was present in 26.4% of survivors and 12.1% of close contacts (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8-3.2). Among all participants with uveitis, survivors were more likely than close contacts to have intermediate uveitis (34.2% vs 6.5% of all cases; OR, 7.8; 95% CI, 3.1-19.7) and had thicker mean central subfield thickness on optical coherence tomography (222 vs 212 μm; mean difference, 14.4 μm; 95% CI, 1.9-26.9 μm).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, survivors of EVD had a distinct spectrum of ocular and neuro-ophthalmologic findings compared with close contacts that potentially require medical and surgical treatment.
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Project description:The 2013-2016 Ebola Zaire virus (EBV) outbreak in West Africa resulted in over 28,000 cases and 11,000 deaths. Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a highly virulent systemic disease with a high case fatality rate of ~ 50%. EVD results in hemorrhagic fever marked by an exaggerated systemic inflammatory response, and impaired vascular and coagulation systems. The immune response of patients who either survived or died is characterized by strong differences. Notably, fatalities showed a diminished capacity to mount an appropriate immune response, resulting in high viremia and increased pro-inflammatory cytokine production. In this study, we analyzed 38 sequential samples collected from 12 patients: 8 survivors and 4 fatalities. Our analytical strategy combined three protein-based platforms covering three different fractions of the plasma proteome: the undepleted classical plasma proteome, the depleted plasma proteome, and cytokines/chemokines, using LC/MS- and antibody-based assays, resulting in over 1000 quantified host and pathogen proteins. For depletion of the most abundant plasma proteins, we advanced a perchloric acid-based precipitation method. This method is low cost, high-throughput and robust.
2022-03-29 | PXD030260 | Pride
Project description:Here, we report the closed genome sequences of two representative Listeria monocytogenes strains belonging to PCR serogroup IVb, which are related to two large outbreaks of human listeriosis that affected Germany in 2015 (Eta1) and 2018 to 2019 (Epsilon1a).
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Project description:Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe and frequently lethal disease caused by Ebola virus (EBOV). EVD outbreaks typically start from a single case of probable zoonotic transmission, followed by human-to-human transmission via direct contact or contact with infected bodily fluids or contaminated fomites. EVD has a high case-fatality rate; it is characterized by fever, gastrointestinal signs and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Diagnosis requires a combination of case definition and laboratory tests, typically real-time reverse transcription PCR to detect viral RNA or rapid diagnostic tests based on immunoassays to detect EBOV antigens. Recent advances in medical countermeasure research resulted in the recent approval of an EBOV-targeted vaccine by European and US regulatory agencies. The results of a randomized clinical trial of investigational therapeutics for EVD demonstrated survival benefits from two monoclonal antibody products targeting the EBOV membrane glycoprotein. New observations emerging from the unprecedented 2013-2016 Western African EVD outbreak (the largest in history) and the ongoing EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have substantially improved the understanding of EVD and viral persistence in survivors of EVD, resulting in new strategies toward prevention of infection and optimization of clinical management, acute illness outcomes and attendance to the clinical care needs of patients.
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Project description:Uganda has reported eight outbreaks caused by filoviruses between 2000 to 2016, more than any other country in the world. We used species distribution modeling to predict where filovirus outbreaks are likely to occur in Uganda to help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance. The MaxEnt software, a machine learning modeling approach that uses presence-only data was used to establish filovirus - environmental relationships. Presence-only data for filovirus outbreaks were collected from the field and online sources. Environmental covariates from Africlim that have been downscaled to a nominal resolution of 1km x 1km were used. The final model gave the relative probability of the presence of filoviruses in the study area obtained from an average of 100 bootstrap runs. Model evaluation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. Maps were created using ArcGIS 10.3 mapping software. We showed that bats as potential reservoirs of filoviruses are distributed all over Uganda. Potential outbreak areas for Ebola and Marburg virus disease were predicted in West, Southwest and Central parts of Uganda, which corresponds to bat distribution and previous filovirus outbreaks areas. Additionally, the models predicted the Eastern Uganda region and other areas that have not reported outbreaks before to be potential outbreak hotspots. Rainfall variables were the most important in influencing model prediction compared to temperature variables. Despite the limitations in the prediction model due to lack of adequate sample records for outbreaks, especially for the Marburg cases, the models provided risk maps to the Uganda surveillance system on filovirus outbreaks. The risk maps will aid in identifying areas to focus the filovirus surveillance for early detection and responses hence curtailing a pandemic. The results from this study also confirm previous findings that suggest that filoviruses are mainly limited by the amount of rainfall received in an area.
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Project description:The filoviruses Ebola virus and Marburg virus are among the most dangerous pathogens in the world. Both viruses cause viral hemorrhagic fever, with case fatality rates of up to 90%. Historically, filovirus outbreaks had been relatively small, with only a few hundred cases reported. However, the recent West African Ebola virus outbreak underscored the threat that filoviruses pose. The three year-long outbreak resulted in 28,646 Ebola virus infections and 11,323 deaths. The lack of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensed vaccines and antiviral drugs hindered early efforts to contain the outbreak. In response, the global scientific community has spurred the advanced development of many filovirus vaccine candidates. Novel vaccine platforms, such as viral vectors and DNA vaccines, have emerged, leading to the investigation of candidate vaccines that have demonstrated protective efficacy in small animal and nonhuman primate studies. Here, we will discuss several of these vaccine platforms with a particular focus on approaches that have advanced into clinical development.
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