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A novel, efficient method for estimating the prevalence of acute malnutrition in resource-constrained and crisis-affected settings: A simulation study.

ABSTRACT: The assessment of the prevalence of acute malnutrition in children under five is widely used for the detection of emergencies, planning interventions, advocacy, and monitoring and evaluation. This study examined PROBIT Methods which convert parameters (mean and standard deviation (SD)) of a normally distributed variable to a cumulative probability below any cut-off to estimate acute malnutrition in children under five using Middle-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC).We assessed the performance of: PROBIT Method I, with mean MUAC from the survey sample and MUAC SD from a database of previous surveys; and PROBIT Method II, with mean and SD of MUAC observed in the survey sample. Specifically, we generated sub-samples from 852 survey datasets, simulating 100 surveys for eight sample sizes. Overall the methods were tested on 681 600 simulated surveys.PROBIT methods relying on sample sizes as small as 50 had better performance than the classic method for estimating and classifying the prevalence of acute malnutrition. They had better precision in the estimation of acute malnutrition for all sample sizes and better coverage for smaller sample sizes, while having relatively little bias. They classified situations accurately for a threshold of 5% acute malnutrition. Both PROBIT methods had similar outcomes.PROBIT Methods have a clear advantage in the assessment of acute malnutrition prevalence based on MUAC, compared to the classic method. Their use would require much lower sample sizes, thus enable great time and resource savings and permit timely and/or locally relevant prevalence estimates of acute malnutrition for a swift and well-targeted response.

SUBMITTER: Frison S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5665500 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel, efficient method for estimating the prevalence of acute malnutrition in resource-constrained and crisis-affected settings: A simulation study.

Frison Severine S Kerac Marko M Checchi Francesco F Nicholas Jennifer J

PloS one 20171101 11

<h4>Introduction</h4>The assessment of the prevalence of acute malnutrition in children under five is widely used for the detection of emergencies, planning interventions, advocacy, and monitoring and evaluation. This study examined PROBIT Methods which convert parameters (mean and standard deviation (SD)) of a normally distributed variable to a cumulative probability below any cut-off to estimate acute malnutrition in children under five using Middle-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC).<h4>Methods</ ...[more]

PMID: 29091927

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Project description:IntroductionMortality data provide essential evidence on the health status of populations in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings and to guide and assess relief operations. Retrospective surveys are commonly used to collect mortality data in such populations, but require substantial resources and have important methodological limitations. We evaluated the feasibility of an alternative method for rapidly quantifying mortality (the informant method). The study objective was to assess the economic feasibility of the informant method.MethodsThe informant method captures deaths through an exhaustive search for all deaths occurring in a population over a defined and recent recall period, using key community informants and next-of-kin of decedents. Between July and October 2008, we implemented and evaluated the informant method in: Kabul, Afghanistan; Mae La camp for Karen refugees, Thai-Burma border; Chiradzulu District, Malawi; and Lugufu and Mtabila refugee camps, Tanzania. We documented the time and cost inputs for the informant method in each site, and compared these with projections for hypothetical retrospective mortality surveys implemented in the same site with a 6 month recall period and with a 30 day recall period.FindingsThe informant method was estimated to require an average of 29% less time inputs and 33% less monetary inputs across all four study sites when compared with retrospective surveys with a 6 month recall period, and 88% less time inputs and 86% less monetary inputs when compared with retrospective surveys with a 1 month recall period. Verbal autopsy questionnaires were feasible and efficient, constituting only 4% of total person-time for the informant method's implementation in Chiradzulu District.ConclusionsThe informant method requires fewer resources and incurs less respondent burden. The method's generally impressive feasibility and the near real-time mortality data it provides warrant further work to develop the method given the importance of mortality measurement in such settings.

Project description:IntroductionSexually transmitted infections (STIs) remain prevalent and are increasing in several populations. Appropriate STI diagnosis is crucial to prevent the transmission and sequelae of untreated infection. We reviewed the diagnostic accuracy of syndromic case management and existing point-of-care tests (POCTs), including those in the pipeline, to diagnose STIs in resource-constrained settings.MethodsWe prioritized updating the systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of vaginal discharge from 2001 to 2015 to include studies until 2018. We calculated the absolute effects of different vaginal flowcharts and the diagnostic performance of POCTs on important outcomes. We searched the peer-reviewed literature for previously conducted systematic reviews and articles from 1990 to 2018 on the diagnostic accuracy of syndromic management of vaginal and urethral discharge, genital ulcer and anorectal infections. We conducted literature reviews from 2000 to 2018 on the existing POCTs and those in the pipeline.Results and discussionsThe diagnostic accuracy of urethral discharge and genital ulcer disease syndromes is relatively adequate. Asymptomatic Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infections limit the use of vaginal discharge and anorectal syndromes. The pooled diagnostic accuracy of vaginal syndromic case management for CT/NG is low, resulting in high numbers of overtreatment and missed treatment. The absolute effect of POCTs was reduced overtreatment and missed treatment. Findings of the reviews on syndromic case management underscored the need for low-cost and accurate POCTs for the identification, first, of CT/NG, and, second, of Mycoplasma genitalium (MG) and Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) and NG and MG resistance/susceptibility testing. Near-patient POCT molecular assays for CT/NG/TV are commercially available. The prices of these POCTs remain the barrier for uptake in resource-constrained settings. This is driving the development of lower cost solutions.ConclusionsThe WHO syndromic case management guidelines should be updated to raise the quality of STI management through the integration of laboratory tests. STI screening strategies are needed to address asymptomatic STIs. POCTs that are accurate, rapid, simple and affordable are urgently needed in resource-constrained settings to support the uptake of aetiological diagnosis and treatment.

Dataset Information

A novel, efficient method for estimating the prevalence of acute malnutrition in resource-constrained and crisis-affected settings: A simulation study.

Publications

A novel, efficient method for estimating the prevalence of acute malnutrition in resource-constrained and crisis-affected settings: A simulation study.

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