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Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced.

ABSTRACT: Population genomic surveys suggest that climate-associated genetic variation occurs widely across species, but whether it is sufficient to allow population persistence via evolutionary adaptation has seldom been quantified. To ask whether rapid adaptation in reef-building corals can keep pace with future ocean warming, we measured genetic variation at predicted warm-adapted loci and simulated future evolution and persistence in a high-latitude population of corals from Rarotonga, Cook Islands. Alleles associated with thermal tolerance were present but at low frequencies in this cooler, southerly locality. Simulations based on predicted ocean warming in Rarotonga showed rapid evolution of heat tolerance resulting in population persistence under mild warming scenarios consistent with low CO₂ emission plans, RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. Under more severe scenarios, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, adaptation was not rapid enough to prevent extinction. Population adaptation was faster for models based on smaller numbers of additive loci that determine thermal tolerance and for higher population growth rates. Finally, accelerated migration via transplantation of thermally tolerant individuals (1 to 5%/year) sped adaptation. These results show that cool-water corals can adapt to warmer oceans but only under mild scenarios resulting from international emissions controls. Incorporation of genomic data into models of species response to climate change offers a promising method for estimating future adaptive processes.

SUBMITTER: Bay RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5665595 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced.

Bay Rachael A RA Rose Noah H NH Logan Cheryl A CA Palumbi Stephen R SR

Science advances 20171101 11

Population genomic surveys suggest that climate-associated genetic variation occurs widely across species, but whether it is sufficient to allow population persistence via evolutionary adaptation has seldom been quantified. To ask whether rapid adaptation in reef-building corals can keep pace with future ocean warming, we measured genetic variation at predicted warm-adapted loci and simulated future evolution and persistence in a high-latitude population of corals from Rarotonga, Cook Islands. A ...[more]

PMID: 29109975

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Project description:Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.

Project description:Rising seawater temperature and ocean acidification threaten the survival of coral reefs. The relationship between coral physiology and its microbiome may reveal why some corals are more resilient to these global change conditions. Here, we conducted the first experiment to simultaneously investigate changes in the coral microbiome and coral physiology in response to the dual stress of elevated seawater temperature and ocean acidification expected by the end of this century. Two species of corals, Acropora millepora containing the thermally sensitive endosymbiont C21a and Turbinaria reniformis containing the thermally tolerant endosymbiont Symbiodinium trenchi, were exposed to control (26.5°C and pCO2 of 364 μatm) and treatment (29.0°C and pCO2 of 750 μatm) conditions for 24 days, after which we measured the microbial community composition. These microbial findings were interpreted within the context of previously published physiological measurements from the exact same corals in this study (calcification, organic carbon flux, ratio of photosynthesis to respiration, photosystem II maximal efficiency, total lipids, soluble animal protein, soluble animal carbohydrates, soluble algal protein, soluble algal carbohydrate, biomass, endosymbiotic algal density, and chlorophyll a). Overall, dually stressed A. millepora had reduced microbial diversity, experienced large changes in microbial community composition, and experienced dramatic physiological declines in calcification, photosystem II maximal efficiency, and algal carbohydrates. In contrast, the dually stressed coral T. reniformis experienced a stable and more diverse microbiome community with minimal physiological decline, coupled with very high total energy reserves and particulate organic carbon release rates. Thus, the microbiome changed and microbial diversity decreased in the physiologically sensitive coral with the thermally sensitive endosymbiotic algae but not in the physiologically tolerant coral with the thermally tolerant endosymbiont. Our results confirm recent findings that temperature-stress tolerant corals have a more stable microbiome, and demonstrate for the first time that this is also the case under the dual stresses of ocean warming and acidification. We propose that coral with a stable microbiome are also more physiologically resilient and thus more likely to persist in the future, and shape the coral species diversity of future reef ecosystems.

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Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced.

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Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced.

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