The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea.
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ABSTRACT: Purpose
The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications.Materials and methods
A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used.Results
Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%.Conclusions
This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions.
SUBMITTER: Oh Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5671958 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:PurposeThis study aimed to provide the basic data needed to estimate future urologist supply and demand by applying various statistical models related to healthcare utilization.Materials and methodsData from multiple sources, including the Yearbook of Health and Welfare Statistics, Korean Hospital Association, Korean Medical Association, and the Korean Urological Association, were used for supply estimation. Demand estimation incorporated data on both clinical and non-clinical urologists, along with future population estimates. In-and-out moves and demographic methods were employed for supply estimation, while the Bureau of Health Professions model was utilized for demand estimation. Supply estimation assumptions included fixed resident quotas, age-specific death rates, migration rates, and retirement age considerations. Demand estimation assumptions included combining clinical and nonclinical urologist demands, adjusting population size for age-related healthcare usage variations. Urologist productivity was determined by adjusting productivity levels to 100%, 90%, and 80% of the base year based on actual clinical practice volumes.ResultsEstimations of both demand and supply consistently indicate an oversupply of urologists until 2025, followed by an expected shortage by 2035 owing to increased deaths and retirements attributed to the aging urologist population. This shortage becomes more pronounced when employing more reliable models, such as logit or ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average), underscoring the growing need for urologists in the future.ConclusionsAll estimation models estimated an oversupply of urologists until 2025, transitioning to a deficit due to reduced supply thereafter. However, considering potential unaccounted factors, greater effort is needed for accurate predictions and corresponding measures.
| S-EPMC11231656 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A growing global population, combined with factors such as changing socio-demographics, will place increased pressure on the world's resources to provide not only more but also different types of food. Increased demand for animal-based protein in particular is expected to have a negative environmental impact, generating greenhouse gas emissions, requiring more water and more land. Addressing this "perfect storm" will necessitate more sustainable production of existing sources of protein as well as alternative sources for direct human consumption. This paper outlines some potential demand scenarios and provides an overview of selected existing and novel protein sources in terms of their potential to sustainably deliver protein for the future, considering drivers and challenges relating to nutritional, environmental, and technological and market/consumer domains. It concludes that different factors influence the potential of existing and novel sources. Existing protein sources are primarily hindered by their negative environmental impacts with some concerns around health. However, they offer social and economic benefits, and have a high level of consumer acceptance. Furthermore, recent research emphasizes the role of livestock as part of the solution to greenhouse gas emissions, and indicates that animal-based protein has an important role as part of a sustainable diet and as a contributor to food security. Novel proteins require the development of new value chains, and attention to issues such as production costs, food safety, scalability and consumer acceptance. Furthermore, positive environmental impacts cannot be assumed with novel protein sources and care must be taken to ensure that comparisons between novel and existing protein sources are valid. Greater alignment of political forces, and the involvement of wider stakeholders in a governance role, as well as development/commercialization role, is required to address both sources of protein and ensure food security.
| S-EPMC5532560 | biostudies-other
Project description:ObjectiveThis study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025.MethodsA microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform.ResultsThe estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.ConclusionsIn the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.
| S-EPMC3776531 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO.MethodsNew data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000-2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models.ResultsDemand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists-roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not include any alterations based on changes in practice patterns, service use, or cancer treatments. Various alternate scenarios were also developed to show how supply and demand might change under different assumptions.ConclusionsASCO, policy makers, and the public have major challenges ahead of them to forestall likely shortages in the capacity to meet future demand for oncology services. A multifaceted strategy will be needed to ensure that Americans have access to oncology services in 2020, as no single action will fill the likely gap between supply and demand. Among the options to consider are increasing the number of oncology fellowship positions, increasing use of nonphysician clinicians, increasing the role of primary care physicians in the care of patients in remission, and redesigning service delivery.
| S-EPMC2793740 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe prevalence of obesity is increasing in developed countries, including Australia. There is evidence that bariatric surgery is effective in losing weight and reducing risk of chronic diseases. However, access to bariatric surgery remains limited in the public health sector.MethodWe modelled population-based estimates of the likely numbers of people eligible for bariatric surgery in Australia using the recent Australian New Zealand Metabolic and Obesity Surgery Society (ANZMOSS) framework and estimated the potential costs that would be incurred from primary and subsequent reoperations in both public and private sector.ResultsThe annual number of newly eligible patients is expected to rise, and hence the gap in demand is increasing relative to current baseline supply. If a 5-year program to treat all currently eligible patients was implemented, the maximum yearly demand is projected to be 341,343 primary surgeries, more than eight times the existing capacity of public and private sector, which can only offer 41,534 surgeries/year. A nine-fold increase is expected if we treat currently eligible patients over a 5-year program and all newly eligible patients as they occur each year.ConclusionOur results highlighted the currently highly skewed distribution of bariatric surgeries between the private and public sectors. Improving access would bring substantial benefits to many Australians, given the demonstrated cost-effectiveness and cost savings. This requires a major increase in resourcing for publicly-funded access to bariatric surgery in the first instance. A national review of priorities and resourcing for all modes of obesity treatment is required in Australia.
| S-EPMC9392713 | biostudies-literature
Project description:With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply-demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia's food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-024-01444-1.
| S-EPMC11102352 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ataxia-telangiectasia (A-T) is an autosomal recessive multi-system disorder caused by mutation in the ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene (ATM). ATM is a large serine/threonine protein kinase, a member of the phosphoinositide 3-kinase-related protein kinase (PIKK) family whose best-studied function is as master controller of signal transduction for the DNA damage response (DDR) in the event of double strand breaks (DSBs). The DDR rapidly recognizes DNA lesions and initiates the appropriate cellular programs to maintain genome integrity. This includes the coordination of cell-cycle checkpoints, transcription, translation, DNA repair, metabolism, and cell fate decisions, such as apoptosis or senescence. DSBs can be generated by exposure to ionizing radiation (IR) or various chemical compounds, such as topoisomerase inhibitors, or can be part of programmed generation and repair of DSBs via cellular enzymes needed for the generation of the antibody repertoire as well as the maturation of germ cells. AT patients have immunodeficiency, and are sterile with gonadal dysgenesis as a result of defect in meiotic recombination. In the cells of nervous system ATM has additional role in vesicle dynamics as well as in the maintenance of the epigenetic code of histone modifications. Moderate levels of ATM are associated with prolonged lifespan through resistance to oxidative stress. ATM inhibitors are being viewed as potential radiosensitizers as part of cancer radiotherapy. Though there is no cure for the disease at present, glucocorticoids have been shown to induce alternate splicing site in the gene for ATM partly restoring its activity, but their most effective timing in the disease natural history is not yet known. Gene therapy is promising but large size of the gene makes it technically difficult to be delivered across the blood-brain barrier at present. As of now, apart from glucocorticoids, use of histone deacetylase inhibitors/EZH2 to minimize effect of the absence of ATM, looks more promising.
| S-EPMC4173637 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management.
| S-EPMC5024990 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In addition to heme's role as the prosthetic group buried inside many different proteins that are ubiquitous in biology, there is new evidence that heme has substantive roles in cellular signaling and regulation. This means that heme must be available in locations distant from its place of synthesis (mitochondria) in response to transient cellular demands. A longstanding question has been to establish the mechanisms that control the supply and demand for cellular heme. By fusing a monomeric heme-binding peroxidase (ascorbate peroxidase, mAPX) to a monomeric form of green-fluorescent protein (mEGFP), we have developed a heme sensor (mAPXmEGFP) that can respond to heme availability. By means of fluorescence lifetime imaging, this heme sensor can be used to quantify heme concentrations; values of the mean fluorescence lifetime (τMean) for mAPX-mEGFP are shown to be responsive to changes in free (unbound) heme concentration in cells. The results demonstrate that concentrations are typically limited to one molecule or less within cellular compartments. These miniscule amounts of free heme are consistent with a system that sequesters the heme and is able to buffer changes in heme availability while retaining the capability to mobilize heme when and where it is needed. We propose that this exchangeable supply of heme can operate using mechanisms for heme transfer that are analogous to classical ligand-exchange mechanisms. This exquisite control, in which heme is made available for transfer one molecule at a time, protects the cell against the toxic effect of excess heme and offers a simple mechanism for heme-dependent regulation in single-molecule steps.
| S-EPMC8179208 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We have previously demonstrated that sickle cell disease (SCD) patients maintain normal global systemic and cerebral oxygen delivery by increasing cardiac output. However, ischemic end-organ injury remains common suggesting that tissue oxygen delivery may be impaired by microvascular dysregulation or damage. To test this hypothesis, we performed fingertip laser Doppler flowmetry measurements at the base of the nailbed and regional oxygen saturation (rSO2 ) on the dorsal surface of the same hand. This was done during flow mediated dilation (FMD) studies in 26 chronically transfused SCD, 75 non-transfused SCD, and 18 control subjects. Chronically transfused SCD patients were studied prior to and following a single transfusion and there was no acute change in rSO2 or perfusion. Laser Doppler estimates of resting perfusion were 76% higher in non-transfused and 110% higher in transfused SCD patients, compared to control subjects. In contrast, rSO2 was 12 saturation points lower in non-transfused SCD patients, but normal in the transfused SCD patients. During cuff occlusion, rSO2 declined at the same rate in all subjects suggesting similar intrinsic oxygen consumption rates. Upon cuff release, laser doppler post occlusive hyperemia was blunted in SCD patients in proportion to their resting perfusion values. Transfusion therapy did not improve the hyperemia response. FMD was impaired in SCD subjects but partially ameliorated in transfused SCD subjects. Taken together, non-transfused SCD subjects demonstrate impaired conduit artery FMD, impaired microcirculatory post-occlusive hyperemia, and resting hypoxia in the hand despite compensated oxygen delivery, suggesting impaired oxygen supply-demand matching. Transfusion improves FMD and oxygen supply-demand matching but not microcirculation hyperemic response.
| S-EPMC6744275 | biostudies-literature