Dataset Information

Temporal and spatial distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia in the period 2000 to 2015.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious viral disease of cattle caused by a virus of the genus Capripoxvirus. LSD was reported for the first time in Ethiopia in 1981 and subsequently became endemic. This time series study was undertaken with the aims of identifying the spatial and temporal distribution of LSD outbreaks and to forecast the future pattern of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia.

Results

A total of 3811 LSD outbreaks were reported in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2015. In this period, LSD was reported at least once in 82% of the districts (n = 683), 88% of the administrative zones (n = 77), and all of the regional states or city administrations (n = 9 and n = 2) in the country. The average incidence of LSD outbreaks at district level was 5.58 per 16 years (0.35 year^-1). The incidence differed between areas, being the lowest in hot dry lowlands and highest in warm moist highland. The occurrence of LSD outbreaks was found to be seasonal. LSD outbreaks generally have a peak in October and a low in May. The trend of LSD outbreaks indicates a slight, but statistically significant increase over the study period. The monthly precipitation pattern is the reverse of LSD outbreak pattern and they are negatively but non-significantly correlated at lag 0 (r = -0.05, p = 0.49, Spearman rank correlation) but the correlation becomes positive and significant when the series are lagged by 1 to 6 months, being the highest at lag 3 (r = 0.55, p < 0.001). The forecast for the period 2016-2018 revealed that the highest number of LSD outbreaks will occur in October for all the 3 years and the lowest in April for the year 2016 and in May for 2017 and 2018.

Conclusion

LSD occurred in all major parts of the country. Outbreaks were high at the end of the long rainy season. Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of LSD and forecasting future occurrences are useful for indicating periods when particular attention should be paid to prevent and control the disease.

SUBMITTER: Molla W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5674741 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Temporal and spatial distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia in the period 2000 to 2015.

Molla W W de Jong M C M MCM Frankena K K

BMC veterinary research 20171106 1

<h4>Background</h4>Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious viral disease of cattle caused by a virus of the genus Capripoxvirus. LSD was reported for the first time in Ethiopia in 1981 and subsequently became endemic. This time series study was undertaken with the aims of identifying the spatial and temporal distribution of LSD outbreaks and to forecast the future pattern of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia.<h4>Results</h4>A total of 3811 LSD outbreaks were reported in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2015. ...[more]

PMID: 29110713

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a devastating transboundary viral disease of cattle which causes significant loss in production. Although this disease has been reported in Uganda and throughout East Africa, there is almost no information about its epidemiology, spatial or spatio-temporal distribution. We carried out a retrospective study on the epidemiology of LSD in Uganda between the years 2002 and 2016, using data on reported outbreaks collected monthly by the central government veterinary administration. Descriptive statistics were computed on frequency of outbreaks, number of cases, vaccinations and deaths. We evaluated differences in the number of reported outbreaks across different regions (agro-ecological zones), districts, months and years. Spatial, temporal and space-time scan statistics were used to identify possible epidemiological clusters of LSD outbreaks. RESULTS:A total of 1161 outbreaks and 319,355 cases of LSD were reported from 55 out of 56 districts of Uganda. There was a significant difference in incidence between years (P?=?0.007) and across different regions. However, there was no significant difference in the number of outbreaks per month (P?=?0.443). The Central region reported the highest number of outbreaks (n?=?418, 36%) followed by Eastern (n?=?372, 32%), Southwestern (n?=?140, 12%), Northern (n?=?131, 11%), Northeastern (n?=?37, 3%), Western (n?=?41, 4%) and Northwestern (n?=?22, 2%) regions. Several endemic hotspots for the circulation of LSD were identified in the Central and Eastern regions using spatial cluster analyses. Outbreaks in endemic hotspots were less seasonal and had strikingly lower mortality and case-fatality rates than the other regions, suggesting an underlying difference in the epidemiology and impact of LSD in these different zones. CONCLUSION:Lumpy Skin disease is endemic in Uganda, with outbreaks occurring annually in all regions of the country. We identified potential spatial hotspots for LSD outbreaks, underlining the need for risk-based surveillance to establish the actual disease prevalence and risk factors for disease maintenance. Space-time analysis revealed that sporadic LSD outbreaks tend to occur both within and outside of endemic areas. The findings from this study will be used as a baseline for further epidemiological studies for the development of sustainable programmes towards the control of LSD in Uganda.

Project description:Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle that can have severe economic implications. New LSD outbreaks are currently circulating in the Middle East (ME). Since 2012, severe outbreaks were reported in cattle across the region. Characterizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of LSDV in cattle populations is prerequisite for guiding successful surveillance and control efforts at a regional level in the ME. Here, we aim to model the ecological niche of LSDV and identify epidemic progression patterns over the course of the epidemic. We analyzed publically available outbreak data from the ME for the period 2012-2015 using presence-only maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and the time-dependent method for the estimation of the effective reproductive number (R-TD). High-risk areas (probability >0.60) for LSDV identified by ecological niche modeling included parts of many northeastern ME countries, though Israel and Turkey were estimated to be the most suitable locations for occurrence of LSDV outbreaks. The most important environmental predictors that contributed to the ecological niche of LSDV included annual precipitation, land cover, mean diurnal range, type of livestock production system, and global livestock densities. Average monthly effective R-TD was equal to 2.2 (95% CI: 1.2, 3.5), whereas the largest R-TD was estimated in Israel (R-TD?=?22.2, 95 CI: 15.2, 31.5) in September 2013, which indicated that the demographic and environmental conditions during this period were suitable to LSDV super-spreading events. The sharp drop of Isreal's inferred R-TD in the following month reflected the success of their 2013 vaccination campaign in controlling the disease. Our results identified areas in which underreporting of LSDV outbreaks may have occurred. More epidemiological information related to cattle populations are needed to further improve the inferred spatial and temporal characteristics of currently circulating LSDV. However, the methodology presented here may be useful in guiding the design of risk-based surveillance and control programs in the region as well as aid in the formulation of epidemic preparedness plans in neighboring LSDV-free countries.

Project description:IntroductionLumpy skin disease is a viral disease that affects cattle belonging to genus Capripoxvirus (Poxviridae) and lead to significant economic losses.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to evaluate the distribution of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks and predict future patterns based on retrospective outbreak reports in Ethiopia.MethodsData were collected through direct communication with regional laboratories and a hierarchical reporting system from the Peasant Associations to Ministry of Agriculture. Time-series data for the LSD outbreaks were analyzed using classical additive time-series decomposition and STL decomposition. Four models (ARIMA, SARIMA, ETS, STLF) were also used to forecast the number of LSD outbreaks that occurred each month for the years (2021-2025) after the models' accuracy test was performed. Additionally, the space-time permutation model (STP) were also used to study retrospective space-time cluster analysis of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia.ResultsThis study examined the geographical and temporal distribution of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia from 2008 to 2020, reporting a total of 3,256 LSD outbreaks, 14,754 LSD-positive cases, 7,758 deaths, and 289 slaughters. It also covered approximately 68% of Ethiopia's districts, with Oromia reporting the highest LSD outbreaks. In the LSD's temporal distribution, the highest peak was reported following the rainy season in September to December and its lowest peak in the dry months of April and May. Out of the four models tested for forecasting, the SARIMA (3, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0) [12] model performed well for the validation data, while the STLF+Random Walk had a robust prediction for the training data. Thus, the SARIMA and STLF+Random Walk models produced a more accurate forecast of LSD outbreaks between 2020 and 2025. From retrospective Space-Time Cluster Analysis of LSD, eight possible clusters were also identified, with five of them located in central part of Ethiopia.ConclusionThe study's time series and ST-cluster analysis of LSD outbreak data provide valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of the disease in Ethiopia. These insights can aid in the development of effective strategies to control and prevent the spread of the disease and holds great potential for improving efforts to combat LSD in the country.

Project description:Knowledge of the dynamics of vegetation phenology is essential for the understanding of vegetation-climate interactions. Although the interest in phenology study is growing, vegetation phenology in Africa received far less attention compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Africa straddles the northern and southern hemispheres, and the climate has a clear latitudinal gradient, which facilitates the study of the interaction between phenology and climate. In this study, the latitudinal and longitudinal gradients and temporal trends of start of growing season (SOS), peak of growing season (POS), and end of growing season (EOS) were examined using long-term satellite dataset during 1982-2015. The latitudinal variations in these phenology metrics were larger in the northern than those in the southern Africa, especially from 6°N northwards to 16°N. The latitudinal variations in southern Africa had no clear patterns due to the more complex climate systems. For the longitudinal variation, the temporal trends in POS and EOS exhibited a gradient-decreasing rate in northern Africa. Over the period from 1982 to 2015, the overall trends of the phenology in Africa were 'later SOS', 'later POS', and 'later EOS'. The faster rate of delay in EOS than in SOS resulted in a prolonged length of growing season (LOS) with 0.50 days/year on average in northern Africa, while a slower rate of delay in EOS than in SOS resulted in a shorter LOS with -0.12 days/year in southern Africa. The prolonged LOS in northern Africa contributes to the increase in the yearly-averaged Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2000. Nevertheless, the NDVI appeared to have reached saturation around the 2000s, although the LOS was still extending after 2000s. Overall, the findings of this study provide an overall view of the spatial and temporal patterns of land surface phenology in the African continent, and a necessary component for future studies on the response of phenology to climate.

Project description:AimThis study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of emerging airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks worldwide.Subject and methodsWe conducted a systematic literature review on outbreaks of emerging airborne viral infectious diseases and calculated outbreak number and intensity at the country level. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the viral infectious diseases outbreaks in different income-level regions. To identify the major airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks, we ranked and extracted the leading viral infectious diseases in outbreak number and intensity in each country by year.ResultsA total of 2505 outbreaks were reported from 1873 to 2021 across 2010 studies. There were 47 countries (47/130, 36.15%) with more frequent emerging airborne viral infectious disease outbreaks (more than nine outbreaks), and these countries mainly distributed in high-income regions (22/47 countries, 46.81%, p < 0.05), especially in Western Europe (14/47 countries, 29.79%, p < 0.05). The number of overall outbreaks was more in the United States and China than in other countries in different years. Outbreaks of measles and influenza are always frequent and intense. Highly pathogenic human coronaviruses infection caused short-term pandemics during which their outbreak number and intensity exceeded other viruses. Rift valley fever outbreaks in the human population are spreading outside of Africa through the flow of goods and travelers.ConclusionCountries in high-income regions reported more emerging airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks, especially in the Western European region, the United States, and China. It is urgent to strengthen collaborative surveillance of emerging airborne viruses, cross-border flow of goods and travelers, and ecological environment to avoid the spread of viral infectious diseases outbreaks worldwide.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01850-3.

Dataset Information

Temporal and spatial distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia in the period 2000 to 2015.

Background

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Temporal and spatial distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia in the period 2000 to 2015.

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