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Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.

ABSTRACT: Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a longer growing season and larger body masses before hibernation. The resulting shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of environmental change made comparable contributions to the observed marked increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments.

SUBMITTER: Ozgul A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5677226 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.

Ozgul Arpat A Childs Dylan Z DZ Oli Madan K MK Armitage Kenneth B KB Blumstein Daniel T DT Olson Lucretia E LE Tuljapurkar Shripad S Coulson Tim T

Nature 20100701 7305

Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a ...[more]

PMID: 20651690

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Project description:ImportanceThe incidence of ischemic stroke among young adults is rising and is potentially due to an increase in stroke risk factors occurring at younger ages, such as obesity.ObjectivesTo investigate whether childhood body mass index (BMI) and change in BMI are associated with adult ischemic stroke and to assess whether the associations are age dependent or influenced by birth weight.Design, setting, and participantsThis investigation was a population-based cohort study of schoolchildren born from 1930 to 1987, with follow-up through national health registers from 1977 to 2012 in Denmark. Participants were 307?677 individuals (8899 ischemic stroke cases) with measured weight and height at ages 7 to 13 years. The dates of the analysis were September 1, 2015, to May 27, 2016.Main outcomes and measuresChildhood BMI, change in BMI, and birth weight. Ischemic stroke events were divided into early (?55 years) or late (>55 years) age at diagnosis.ResultsThe study cohort comprised 307?677 participants (approximately 49% female and 51% male). During the study period, 3529 women and 5370 men experienced an ischemic stroke. At all ages from 7 to 13 years, an above-average BMI z score was positively associated with early ischemic stroke. At age 13 years, a BMI z score of 1 was associated with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.11-1.43) in women and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.10-1.33) in men. No significant associations were found for below-average BMI z scores. Among children with above-average BMI z scores at age 7 years, a score increase of 0.5 from ages 7 to 13 years was positively associated with early ischemic stroke in women (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01-1.20) and in men (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.00-1.16). Similarly, among children with below-average BMI z scores at age 7 years, a score increase of 0.5 from ages 7 to 13 years was positively associated with early ischemic stroke in women (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06-1.23) and in men (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.18). Adjusting for birth weight minimally affected the associations.Conclusions and relevanceIndependent of birth weight, above-average childhood BMI and increases in BMI during childhood are positively associated with early adult ischemic stroke. To avoid the occurrence of early ischemic stroke associated with childhood overweight and obesity, these results suggest that all children should be helped to attain and maintain healthy weights.

Dataset Information

Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.

Publications

Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.

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