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Combinations of interventions to achieve a national HIV incidence reduction goal: insights from an agent-based model.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Analyzing HIV care service targets for achieving a national goal of a 25% reduction in annual HIV incidence and evaluating the use of annual HIV diagnoses to measure progress in incidence reduction. DESIGN:Because there are considerable interactions among HIV care services, we model the dynamics of 'combinations' of increases in HIV care continuum targets to identify those that would achieve 25% reductions in annual incidence and diagnoses. METHODS:We used Progression and Transmission of HIV/AIDS 2.0, an agent-based dynamic stochastic simulation of HIV in the United States. RESULTS:A 25% reduction in annual incidence could be achieved by multiple alternative combinations of percentages of persons with diagnosed infection and persons with viral suppression including 85 and 68%, respectively, and 90 and 59%, respectively. The first combination corresponded to an 18% reduction in annual diagnoses, and infections being diagnosed at a median CD4 cell count of 372 cells/?l or approximately 3.8 years from time of infection. The corresponding values on the second combination are 4%, 462 cells/?l, and 2.0 years, respectively. CONCLUSION:Our analysis provides policy makers with specific targets and alternative choices to achieve the goal of a 25% reduction in HIV incidence. Reducing annual diagnoses does not equate to reducing annual incidence. Instead, progress toward reducing incidence can be measured by monitoring HIV surveillance data trends in CD4 cell count at diagnosis along with the proportion who have achieved viral suppression to determine where to focus local programmatic efforts.

SUBMITTER: Gopalappa C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5680124 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Combinations of interventions to achieve a national HIV incidence reduction goal: insights from an agent-based model.

Gopalappa Chaitra C Sansom Stephanie L SL Farnham Paul G PG Chen Yao-Hsuan YH

AIDS (London, England) 20171101 18

<h4>Objective</h4>Analyzing HIV care service targets for achieving a national goal of a 25% reduction in annual HIV incidence and evaluating the use of annual HIV diagnoses to measure progress in incidence reduction.<h4>Design</h4>Because there are considerable interactions among HIV care services, we model the dynamics of 'combinations' of increases in HIV care continuum targets to identify those that would achieve 25% reductions in annual incidence and diagnoses.<h4>Methods</h4>We used Progres ...[more]

PMID: 29028657

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Project description:BackgroundGovernment policy has precipitated recent changes in the provision of harm reduction interventions - injecting equipment provision (IEP) and opiate substitution therapy (OST) - for people who inject drugs (PWID) in Scotland. We sought to examine the potential impact of these changes on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among PWID.Methods and findingsWe used a framework to triangulate different types of evidence: 'group-level/ecological' and 'individual-level'. Evidence was primarily generated from bio-behavioural cross-sectional surveys of PWID, undertaken during 2008-2012. Individuals in the window period (1-2 months) where the virus is present, but antibodies have not yet been formed, were considered to have recent infection. The survey data were supplemented with service data on the provision of injecting equipment and OST. Ecological analyses examined changes in intervention provision, self-reported intervention uptake, self-reported risk behaviour and HCV incidence; individual-level analyses investigated relationships within the pooled survey data. Nearly 8,000 PWID were recruited in the surveys. We observed a decline in HCV incidence, per 100 person-years, from 13.6 (95% CI: 8.1-20.1) in 2008-09 to 7.3 (3.0-12.9) in 2011-12; a period during which increases in the coverage of OST and IEP, and decreases in the frequency of injecting and sharing of injecting equipment, were observed. Individual-level evidence demonstrated that combined high coverage of needles/syringes and OST were associated with reduced risk of recent HCV in analyses that were unweighted (AOR 0.29, 95%CI 0.11-0.74) and weighted for frequency of injecting (AORw 0.05, 95%CI 0.01-0.18). We estimate the combination of harm reduction interventions may have averted 1400 new HCV infections during 2008-2012.ConclusionsThis is the first study to demonstrate that impressive reductions in HCV incidence can be achieved among PWID over a relatively short time period through high coverage of a combination of interventions.

Project description:ImportanceHow clinicians communicate about deprescribing, the structured process of reducing or stopping unnecessary, potentially harmful, or goal-discordant medicines, may be associated with the extent to which older adults are willing to do it.ObjectiveTo examine older adults' preferences regarding different rationales a clinician may use to explain why a patient should stop an unnecessary or potentially harmful medication.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional survey study was conducted from March 25 to April 19, 2020, among a nationally representative, probability-based online survey panel (KnowledgePanel). KnowledgePanel members aged 65 years and older were recruited by random digit dialing and address-based sampling. Data were analyzed from May 4 to July 8, 2020.ExposuresThe survey presented 2 vignettes involving hypothetical older adults. One described a statin being used for primary prevention by a person with functional impairment and polypharmacy. The second described a sedative-hypnotic, such as zolpidem, being used for insomnia by a person with good functional status.Main outcomes and measuresAfter each vignette, participants expressed preferences using a best-worst scaling method for 7 different phrases a clinician may use to explain why they should reduce or stop the medication. Conditional logistic regression was used to quantify respondents' relative preferences.ResultsA total of 1193 KnowledgePanel members were invited, and 835 respondents (70.0%) completed the survey. The mean (SD) age was 73 (6) years, 414 (49.6%) were women, and 671 (80.4%) self-identified as White individuals. A total of 496 respondents (59.8%) had ever used a statin, and 124 respondents (14.9%) had ever used a sedative-hypnotic. For both medications, the most preferred phrase to explain deprescribing focused on the risk of side effects. For statins, this phrase was 5.8-fold (95% CI, 5.3-6.3) more preferred than the least preferred option, which focused on the effort (treatment burden) involved in taking the medicine. For sedative-hypnotics, the phrase about side effects was 8.6-fold (95% CI, 7.9-9.5) more preferred over the least preferred option, "This medicine is unlikely to help you function better."Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that among older adults, the most preferred rationale for deprescribing both preventive and symptom-relief medicines focused on the risk of side effects. These results could be used to inform clinical practice and improve effective communications around deprescribing in older adults.

Project description:ObjectivesThis article reports results of the first National Institutes of Health-funded prospective interfacility transport study to determine the effect of goal-directed therapy administered by a specialized pediatric team to critically ill children with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome. We hypothesized that goal-directed therapy during interfacility transport would decrease hospital length of stay, prevent multiple organ dysfunction, and reduce subsequent ICU interventions.DesignBefore-and-after intervention trial.SettingDuring interfacility transport of critically ill patients by a specialized pediatric transport team, back to a tertiary care children's hospital.PatientsBefore-and-after intervention trial.DesignInterfacility pediatric transport patients, age 1 month to 17 years, with systemic inflammatory response syndrome.InterventionsProspective data were collected on all pediatric interfacility transport patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome transported by the Angel One Transport team at Arkansas Children's Hospital. A 10-month data collection period was followed by institution of a goal-directed resuscitation protocol. Data were subsequently collected for 10 additional months followed by comparison of pre- and postintervention groups. All transport personnel underwent training with didactics and high-fidelity simulation until mastery with goal-directed resuscitation was achieved.Measurements and main resultsAll transport patients were screened for systemic inflammatory response syndrome using established variables and 235 (123 preintervention and 112 postintervention) were enrolled. Univariate analysis revealed shorter hospital stay (11 ± 15 d vs 7 ± 10 d; p = 0.02) and fewer required therapeutic ICU interventions in the postintervention group (Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System-28 Scores, 19.4 ± 6.8 vs 17.3 ± 6.6; p = 0.04). ICU stay and prevalence of organ dysfunction were not statistically different. Multivariable analysis showed a 1.6-day (95% CI, 1.3-2.03; p = 0.02) decrease in hospital stay in the postintervention group.ConclusionsThis study suggests that goal-directed therapy administered by a specialized pediatric transport team has the potential to impact the outcomes of critically ill children. Findings from this study should be confirmed across multiple institutions, but have the potential to impact the clinical outcomes of critically ill children with systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Targeting combination HIV interventions to locations and populations with high HIV burden is a global priority, but the impact of these strategies on HIV incidence is unclear. We assessed the impact of combination HIV interventions on HIV incidence in four HIV-hyperendemic communities in Uganda. METHODS:We did an open population-based cohort study of people aged 15-49 years residing in four fishing communities on Lake Victoria. The communities were surveyed five times to collect self-reported demographic, behavioural, and service-uptake data. Free HIV testing was provided at each interview, with referral to combination HIV intervention services as appropriate. From November, 2011, combination HIV intervention services were rapidly expanded in these geographical areas. We evaluated trends in HIV testing coverage among all participants, circumcision coverage among male participants, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and HIV viral load among HIV-positive participants, and sexual behaviours and HIV incidence among HIV-negative participants. FINDINGS:From Nov 4, 2011, to Aug 16, 2017, data were collected from five surveys. Overall, 8942 participants contributed 20?721 person-visits; 4619 (52%) of 8942 participants were male. HIV prevalence was 41% (1598 of 3870) in the 2011-12 baseline survey and declined to 37% (1740 of 4738) at the final survey (p<0·0001). 3222 participants who were HIV-negative at baseline, and who had at least one repeat visit, contributed 9477 person-years of follow-up, and 230 incident HIV infections occurred. From the first survey in 2011-12 to the last survey in 2016-17, HIV testing coverage increased from 68% (2613 of 3870) to 96% (4526 of 4738; p<0·0001); male circumcision coverage increased from 35% (698 of 2011) to 65% (1630 of 2525; p<0·0001); ART coverage increased from 16% (254 of 1598) to 82% (1420 of 1740; p<0·0001); and population HIV viral load suppression in all HIV-positive participants increased from 34% (546 of 1596) to 80% (1383 of 1734; p<0·0001). Risky sexual behaviours did not decrease over this period. HIV incidence decreased from 3·43 per 100 person-years (95% CI 2·45-4·67) in 2011-12 to 1·59 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1·19-2·07) in 2016-17; adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0·52 (95% CI 0·34-0·79). Declines in HIV incidence were similar among men (adjusted IRR 0·53, 95% CI 0·30-0·93) and women (0·51, 0·27-0·96). The risk of incident HIV infection was lower in circumcised men than in uncircumcised men (0·46, 0·32-0·67). INTERPRETATION:Rapid expansion of combination HIV interventions in HIV-hyperendemic fishing communities is feasible and could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. However, incidence remains higher than HIV epidemic control targets, and additional efforts will be needed to achieve this global health priority. FUNDING:The National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, the National Cancer Institute, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Division of Intramural Research, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Uganda, Karolinska Institutet, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research.

Project description:Background. A culture of stringent drug policy, one-size-fits-all treatment approaches, and drug-related stigma has clouded clinical HIV practice in the United States. The result is a series of missed opportunities in the HIV care environment. An approach which may address the broken relationship between patient and provider is harm reduction-which removes judgment and operates at the patient's stage of readiness. Harm reduction is not a routine part of care; rather, it exists outside clinic walls, exacerbating the divide between compassionate, stigma-free services and the medical system. Methods. Qualitative, phenomenological, semi-structured, individual interviews with patients and providers were conducted in three publicly-funded clinics in Chicago, located in areas of high HIV prevalence and drug use and serving African-American patients (N = 38). A deductive thematic analysis guided the process, including: the creation of an index code list, transcription and verification of interviews, manual coding, notation of emerging themes and refinement of code definitions, two more rounds of coding within AtlasTi, calculation of Cohen's Kappa for interrater reliability, queries of major codes and analysis of additional common themes. Results. Thematic analysis of findings indicated that the majority of patients felt receptive to harm reduction interventions (safer injection counseling, safer stimulant use counseling, overdose prevention information, supply provision) from their provider, and expressed anticipated gratitude for harm reduction information and/or supplies within the HIV care visit, although some were reluctant to talk openly about their drug use. Provider results were mixed, with more receptivity reported by advanced practice nurses, and more barriers cited by physicians. Notable barriers included: role-perceptions, limited time, inadequate training, and the patients themselves. Discussion. Patients are willing to receive harm reduction interventions from their HIV care providers, while provider receptiveness is mixed. The findings reveal critical implications for diffusion of harm reduction into HIV care, including the need to address cited barriers for both patients and providers to ensure feasibility of implementation. Strategies to address these barriers are discussed, and recommendations for further research are also shared.

Dataset Information

Combinations of interventions to achieve a national HIV incidence reduction goal: insights from an agent-based model.

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Combinations of interventions to achieve a national HIV incidence reduction goal: insights from an agent-based model.

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