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An exploration of mortality risk factors in non-severe pneumonia in children using clinical data from Kenya.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Childhood pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years old. Recent updates to World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines recommend outpatient care for a population of children previously classified as high risk. This revision has been challenged by policymakers in Africa, where mortality related to pneumonia is higher than in other regions and often complicated by comorbidities. This study aimed to identify factors that best discriminate inpatient mortality risk in non-severe pneumonia and explore whether these factors offer any added benefit over the current criteria used to identify children with pneumonia requiring inpatient care.

Methods

We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children aged 2-59 months admitted with a clinical diagnosis of pneumonia at 14 public hospitals in Kenya between February 2014 and February 2016. Using machine learning techniques, we analysed whether clinical characteristics and common comorbidities increased the risk of inpatient mortality for non-severe pneumonia. The topmost risk factors were subjected to decision curve analysis to explore if using them as admission criteria had any net benefit above the current criteria.

Results

Out of 16,162 children admitted with pneumonia during the study period, 10,687 were eligible for subsequent analysis. Inpatient mortality within this non-severe group was 252/10,687 (2.36%). Models demonstrated moderately good performance; the partial least squares discriminant analysis model had higher sensitivity for predicting mortality in comparison to logistic regression. Elevated respiratory rate (?70 bpm), age 2-11 months and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ)?ConclusionsChildren with non-severe pneumonia aged 2-11 months or with respiratory rate???70 bpm or very low WAZ experience risks of inpatient mortality comparable to severe pneumonia. Inpatient care is warranted in these high-risk groups of children.

SUBMITTER: Tuti T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5682642 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

An exploration of mortality risk factors in non-severe pneumonia in children using clinical data from Kenya.

Tuti Timothy T Agweyu Ambrose A Mwaniki Paul P Peek Niels N English Mike M

BMC medicine 20171113 1

<h4>Background</h4>Childhood pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years old. Recent updates to World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines recommend outpatient care for a population of children previously classified as high risk. This revision has been challenged by policymakers in Africa, where mortality related to pneumonia is higher than in other regions and often complicated by comorbidities. This study aimed to identify factors that best discr ...[more]

PMID: 29129186

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Project description:Multidrug-resistant non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) infection has emerged as a prominent cause of invasive infections in Africa. We investigated the prevalence of ceftriaxone-resistant invasive NTS infections, conducted exploratory analysis of risk factors for resistance, and described antimicrobial use in western Kenya. We conducted a secondary analysis of existing laboratory, epidemiology, and clinical data from three independent projects, a malaria vaccine trial, a central nervous system (CNS) study, and the International Emerging Infections Program morbidity surveillance (surveillance program) during 2009-2014. We calculated odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ceftriaxone-resistant NTS infections compared with ceftriaxone-susceptible infections. We surveyed hospitals, pharmacies, and animal drug retailers about the availability and use of antimicrobials. In total, 286 invasive NTS infections were identified in the three projects; 43 NTS isolates were ceftriaxone-resistant. The absolute prevalence of ceftriaxone resistance varied among these methodologically diverse projects, with 18% (16/90) of isolates resistant to ceftriaxone in the vaccine trial, 89% (16/18) in the CNS study, and 6% (11/178) in the surveillance program. Invasive ceftriaxone-resistant infections increased over time. Most ceftriaxone-resistant isolates were co-resistant to multiple other antimicrobials. Having an HIV-positive mother (OR = 3.7; CI = 1.2-11.4) and taking trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole for the current illness (OR = 9.6, CI = 1.2-78.9) were significantly associated with acquiring ceftriaxone-resistant invasive NTS infection. Ceftriaxone and other antibiotics were widely prescribed; multiple issues related to prescription practices and misuse were identified. In summary, ceftriaxone-resistant invasive NTS infection is increasing and limiting treatment options for serious infections. Efforts are ongoing to address the urgent need for improved microbiologic diagnostic capacity and an antimicrobial surveillance system in Kenya.

Project description:Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012.Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi's Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children's clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2-11 months of age, and 12-59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models.Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113?154 pneumonia cases, 104?932 (92·7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6·6% (95% CI 6·4-6·7). The case fatality rate significantly decreased between 2001 (15·2% [13·4-17·1]) and 2012 (4·5% [4·1-4·9]; ptrend<0·0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors significantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2-11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11·8%), severe undernutrition (15·4%), severe acute malnutrition (34·8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9·0%).Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specific subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of sufficient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of effective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dataset Information

An exploration of mortality risk factors in non-severe pneumonia in children using clinical data from Kenya.

Background

Methods

Results

Publications

An exploration of mortality risk factors in non-severe pneumonia in children using clinical data from Kenya.

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