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Predictive and concurrent validity of cartilage thickness change as a marker of knee osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To investigate the predictive and concurrent validity of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based cartilage thickness change between baseline (BL) and year-two (Y2) follow-up (predictive validity) and between Y2 and Y4 follow-up (concurrent validity) for symptomatic and radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression during Y2?Y4. METHODS:777 knees from 777 Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants (age: 61.3 ± 9.0 years, BMI: 30.1 ± 4.8 kg/m2) with Kellgren Lawrence (KL) grade 1-3 at Y2 (visit before progression interval) had cartilage thickness measurements from 3T MRI at BL, Y2 (n = 777), and Y4 (n = 708). Analysis of covariance and logistic regression were used to assess the association of pain progression (?9 WOMAC units [scale 0-100], n = 205/572 with/without progression) and radiographic progression (?0.7 mm minimum joint space width (mJSW) loss, n = 166/611 with/without progression) between Y2 and Y4 with preceding (BL?Y2) and concurrent (Y2?Y4) change in central medial femorotibial (cMFTC) compartment cartilage thickness. RESULTS:Symptomatic progression was associated with concurrent (Y2?Y4: -305 ± 470 ?m vs -155 ± 346 ?m, Odds ratios (OR) = 1.5 [1.2, 1.7]) but not with preceding cartilage thickness loss in cMFTC (-150 ± 276 ?m vs -151 ± 299 ?m, OR = 0.9 95% CI: [0.8, 1.1]). Radiographic progression, in contrast, was significantly associated with both concurrent (-542 ± 550 ?m vs -98 ± 255 ?m, OR = 3.4 [2.6, 4.3]) and preceding cMFTC thickness loss (-229 ± 355 ?m vs -130 ± 270 ?m, OR = 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]). CONCLUSIONS:These results extend previous reports that did not discern predictive vs concurrent associations of cartilage thickness loss with OA progression. The observed predictive and concurrent validity of cartilage thickness loss for radiographic progression and observed concurrent validity for symptomatic progression provide an important step in qualifying cartilage thickness loss as a biomarker of knee OA progression. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV IDENTIFICATION:NCT00080171.

SUBMITTER: Wirth W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5688009 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive and concurrent validity of cartilage thickness change as a marker of knee osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

Wirth W W Hunter D J DJ Nevitt M C MC Sharma L L Kwoh C K CK Ladel C C Eckstein F F

Osteoarthritis and cartilage 20170831 12

<h4>Objective</h4>To investigate the predictive and concurrent validity of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based cartilage thickness change between baseline (BL) and year-two (Y2) follow-up (predictive validity) and between Y2 and Y4 follow-up (concurrent validity) for symptomatic and radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression during Y2→Y4.<h4>Methods</h4>777 knees from 777 Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants (age: 61.3 ± 9.0 years, BMI: 30.1 ± 4.8 kg/m<sup>2</sup>) with Kellgre ...[more]

PMID: 28838858

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the association of cartilage thickness change over 24 months, as determined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), with knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression at 24-48 months. METHODS:This nested case-control study included 600 knees with a baseline Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grade of 1-3 from 600 Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants. Case knees (n?=?194) had both medial tibiofemoral radiographic joint space loss (?0.7 mm) and a persistent increase in the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain score (?9 on a 0-100 scale) 24-48 months from baseline. Control knees (n?=?406) included 200 with neither radiographic nor pain progression, 103 with radiographic progression only, and 103 with pain progression only. Medial and lateral femorotibial cartilage was segmented from sagittal 3T MRIs at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of change in cartilage thickness, with a focus on the central medial femorotibial compartment, and OA progression. RESULTS:Central medial femorotibial compartment thickness loss was significantly associated with case status, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.6-2.3) (P < 0.0001). Association with case status reached P < 0.05 for both the central femur (OR 1.8 [95% CI 1.5-2.2]) and the central tibia (OR 1.6 [95% CI 1.3-1.9]). Lateral femorotibial compartment cartilage thickness loss, in contrast, was not significantly associated with case status. A reduction in central medial femorotibial compartment cartilage thickness was strongly associated with radiographic progression (OR 4.0 [95% CI 2.9-5.3]; P < 0.0001) and only weakly associated with pain progression (OR 1.3 [95% CI 1.1-1.6]; P < 0.01). CONCLUSION:Our findings indicate that loss of medial femorotibial cartilage thickness over 24 months is associated with the combination of radiographic and pain progression in the knee, with a stronger association for radiographic progression.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:The performance characteristics of hyaline articular cartilage measurement on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) need to be accurately delineated before widespread application of this technology. Our objective was to assess the rate of natural disease progression of cartilage morphometry measures from baseline to 1 year in knees with osteoarthritis (OA) from a subset of participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). METHODS:Subjects included for this exploratory analysis are a subset of the approximately 4700 participants in the OAI Study. Bilateral radiographs and 3T MRI (Siemans Trio) of the knees and clinical data were obtained at baseline and annually in all participants. 160 subjects from the OAI Progression subcohort all of whom had both frequent symptoms and, in the same knee, radiographic OA based on a screening reading done at the OAI clinics were eligible for this exploratory analysis. One knee from each subject was selected for analysis. 150 participants were included. Using sagittal 3D DESSwe (double echo, steady-state sequence with water excitation) MR images from the baseline and 12 follow-up month visit, a segmentation algorithm was applied to the cartilage plates of the index knee to compute the cartilage volume, normalised cartilage volume (volume normalised to bone surface interface area), and percentage denuded area (total cartilage bone interface area denuded of cartilage). RESULTS:Summary statistics of the changes (absolute and percentage) from baseline at 1 year and the standardised response mean (SRM), ie, mean change divided by the SD change were calculated. On average the subjects were 60.9 years of age and obese, with a mean body mass index of 30.3 kg/m2. The SRMs for cartilage volume of various locations are: central medial tibia -0.096; central medial femur -0.394; and patella -0.198. The SRMs for normalised cartilage volume of the various locations are central medial tibia -0.044, central medial femur -0.338 and patella -0.193. The majority of participants had a denuded area at baseline in the central medial femur (62%) and central medial tibia (60%). In general, the SRMs were small. CONCLUSIONS:These descriptive results of cartilage morphometry and its change at the 1-year time point from the first substantive MRI data release from the OAI Progression subcohort indicate that the annualised rates of change are small with the central medial femur showing the greatest consistent change.

Dataset Information

Predictive and concurrent validity of cartilage thickness change as a marker of knee osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

Publications

Predictive and concurrent validity of cartilage thickness change as a marker of knee osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

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