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Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool.

ABSTRACT: The worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ?12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths in the Lives Saved tool (LiST), and potential future refinements.The specific application to stillbirths of the general method for modelling the impact of interventions in LiST is described. The evidence for the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce stillbirths are reviewed and the assumptions of the affected fraction of stillbirths who could potentially benefit from these interventions are presented. The current assumptions and their effects on stillbirth reduction are described and potential future improvements discussed.High quality evidence are not available for all parameters in the LiST stillbirth model. Cause-specific mortality data is not available for stillbirths, therefore stillbirths are modelled in LiST using an attributable fraction approach by timing of stillbirths (antepartum/ intrapartum). Of 35 potential interventions to reduce stillbirths identified, eight interventions are currently modelled in LiST. These include childbirth care, induction for prolonged pregnancy, multiple micronutrient and balanced energy supplementation, malaria prevention and detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes and syphilis. For three of the interventions, childbirth care, detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and diabetes the estimate of effectiveness is based on expert opinion through a Delphi process. Only for malaria is coverage information available, with coverage estimated using expert opinion for all other interventions. Going forward, potential improvements identified include improving of effectiveness and coverage estimates for included interventions and addition of further interventions.Known effective interventions have the potential to reduce stillbirths and can be modelled using the LiST tool. Data for stillbirths are improving. Going forward the LiST tool should seek, where possible, to incorporate these improving data, and to continually be refined to provide an increasingly reliable tool for policy and programming purposes.

SUBMITTER: Blencowe H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5688483 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool.

Blencowe Hannah H Chou Victoria B VB Lawn Joy E JE Bhutta Zulfiqar A ZA

BMC public health 20171107 Suppl 4

<h4>Background</h4>The worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ≤12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths i ...[more]

PMID: 29143647

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Project description:BackgroundDiarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five years of age. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a model used to calculate deaths averted or lives saved by past interventions and for the purposes of program planning when costly and time consuming impact studies are not possible.DiscussionLiST models the relationship between coverage of interventions and outputs, such as stunting, diarrhea incidence and diarrhea mortality. Each intervention directly prevents a proportion of diarrhea deaths such that the effect size of the intervention is multiplied by coverage to calculate lives saved. That is, the maximum effect size could be achieved at 100% coverage, but at 50% coverage only 50% of possible deaths are prevented. Diarrhea mortality is one of the most complex causes of death to be modeled. The complexity is driven by the combination of direct prevention and treatment interventions as well as interventions that operate indirectly via the reduction in risk factors, such as stunting and wasting. Published evidence is used to quantify the effect sizes for each direct and indirect relationship. Several studies have compared measured changes in mortality to LiST estimates of mortality change looking at different sets of interventions in different countries. While comparison work has generally found good agreement between the LiST estimates and measured mortality reduction, where data availability is weak, the model is less likely to produce accurate results. LiST can be used as a component of program evaluation, but should be coupled with more complete information on inputs, processes and outputs, not just outcomes and impact.SummaryLiST is an effective tool for modeling diarrhea mortality and can be a useful alternative to large and expensive mortality impact studies. Predicting the impact of interventions or comparing the impact of more than one intervention without having to wait for the results of large and expensive mortality studies is critical to keep programs focused and results oriented for continued reductions in diarrhea and all-cause mortality among children under five years of age.

Project description:BackgroundStrengthening the capacity of midwives to deliver high-quality maternal and newborn health services has been highlighted as a priority by global health organisations. To support low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in their decisions about investments in health, we aimed to estimate the potential impact of midwives on reducing maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths under several intervention coverage scenarios.MethodsFor this modelling study, we used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of deaths that would be averted by 2035, if coverage of health interventions that can be delivered by professional midwives were scaled up in 88 countries that account for the vast majority of the world's maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths. We used four scenarios to assess the effects of increasing the coverage of midwife-delivered interventions by a modest amount (10% every 5 years), a substantial amount (25% every 5 years), and the amount needed to reach universal coverage of these interventions (ie, to 95%); and the effects of coverage attrition (a 2% decrease every 5 years). We grouped countries in three equal-sized groups according to their Human Development Index. Group A included the 30 countries with the lowest HDI, group B included 29 low-to-medium HDI countries, and group C included 29 medium-to-high HDI countries.FindingsWe estimated that, relative to current coverage, a substantial increase in coverage of midwife-delivered interventions could avert 41% of maternal deaths, 39% of neonatal deaths, and 26% of stillbirths, equating to 2·2 million deaths averted per year by 2035. Even a modest increase in coverage of midwife-delivered interventions could avert 22% of maternal deaths, 23% of neonatal deaths, and 14% of stillbirths, equating to 1·3 million deaths averted per year by 2035. Relative to current coverage, universal coverage of midwife-delivered interventions would avert 67% of maternal deaths, 64% of neonatal deaths, and 65% of stillbirths, allowing 4·3 million lives to be saved annually by 2035. These deaths averted would be particularly concentrated in the group B countries, which currently account for a large proportion of the world's population and have high mortality rates compared with group C.InterpretationMidwives can help to substantially reduce maternal and neonatal mortality and stillbirths in LMICs. However, to realise this potential, midwives need to have skills and competencies in line with recommendations from the International Confederation of Midwives, to be part of a team of sufficient size and skill, and to work in an enabling environment. Our study highlights the potential of midwives but there are many challenges to the achievement of this potential. If increased coverage of midwife-delivered interventions can be achieved, health systems will be better able to provide effective coverage of essential sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, and adolescent health interventions.FundingNew Venture Fund.

Project description:Background:As one of several countries that pledged to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Mozambique sought to reduce child, neonatal, and maternal mortality by two thirds by 2015. This study examines the impact of Mozambique's efforts between 1997 and 2015, highlighting the increases in intervention coverage that contributed to saving the most lives. Methods:A retrospective analysis of available household survey data was conducted using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Baseline mortality rates, cause-of-death distributions, and coverage of child, neonatal, and maternal interventions were entered as inputs. Changes in mortality rates, causes of death, and additional lives saved were calculated as results. Due to limited coverage data for the year 2015, we reported most results for the period 1997-2011. For 2011-2015 we reported additional lives saved for a subset of interventions. All analyses were performed at national and provincial level. Results:Our modelled estimates show that increases in intervention coverage from 1997 to 2011 saved an additional 422?282 child lives (0-59 months), 85?450 neonatal lives (0-1 month), and 6528 maternal lives beyond those already being saved at baseline coverage levels in 1997. Malaria remained the leading cause of child mortality from 1997 to 2011; prematurity, asphyxia, and sepsis remained the leading causes of neonatal mortality; and hemorrhage remained the leading cause of maternal mortality. Interventions to reduce acute malnutrition and promote artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria were responsible for the largest number of additional child lives saved in the 1997-2011 period. Increases in coverage of delivery management were responsible for most additional newborn and maternal lives saved in both periods in Mozambique. Conclusion:Mozambique has made impressive gains in reducing child mortality since 1997. Additional effort is needed to further reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in all provinces. More lives can be saved by continuing to increase coverage of existing health interventions and exploring new ways to reach underserved populations.

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Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool.

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Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool.

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