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Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. METHODS:We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother's age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. RESULTS:We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother's age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. CONCLUSIONS:Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in determining the effects of family planning on changes in distribution of high-risk births. The best predictions for how birth risk changes with increased modern contraception and for different contraception methods allow for more nuanced predictions specific to each country and can aid better planning for the scaling up of modern contraception.

SUBMITTER: Perin J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5688497 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

Perin Jamie J Amouzou Agbessi A Walker Neff N

BMC public health 20171107 Suppl 4

<h4>Background</h4>Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change ...[more]

PMID: 29143633

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Project description:ContextImproving contraceptive method choice is a goal of international family planning. Method mix-the percentage distribution of total contraceptive use across various methods-reflects both supply (availability of affordable methods) and demand (client preferences). We analyze changes in method mix, regional contrasts, and the relationship of the mix to contraceptive prevalence.MethodsWe use 789 national surveys from the 1960s through 2019, from 113 developing countries with at least 1 million people and with data on use of 8 contraceptive methods. Two measures assess the "evenness" of the mix: method skew (more than 50% use is by 1 method), and the average deviation (AD) of the 8 methods' shares from their mean value. Population weighted and unweighted results are compared because they can differ substantially.ResultsUse of traditional methods has declined but still represents 11% of all use (population weighted) or 17% (unweighted country average). Vasectomy's share was historically low with the exception of a few countries but is now even lower. The previous trend toward greater overall evenness in the mix has slowed recently. Sub-Saharan Africa shows a hormonal method progression from oral contraceptives to injectables to implants in a substantial number of countries. In some countries with high HIV prevalence, the condom share has increased. The leading method's share differs by region: female sterilization in Asia (39%) and in Latin America (31%), the pill in the Middle East/North Africa (32%), and the injectable in sub-Saharan Africa (36%). Method skew persists in 30% of countries. "Evenness" of mix is not related to contraceptive prevalence.ConclusionThe marked diversity in predominant methods underscores the conclusion that no single method mix is ideal or appropriate everywhere. But that diversity across countries, coupled with the persisting high degree of extreme skewness in many of them, argues for continued concerted efforts for programs to increase method choice.

Project description:BackgroundYouth ages 15 to 24, who comprise a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa, face a higher burden of unmet contraceptive need than adults. Despite increased international and national commitments to improving young people's access to contraception, significant barriers impede their access to a full range of methods. To further explore these barriers among youth in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda, we conducted a qualitative study to capture the challenges that affect contraceptive method decisionmaking and complicate youth access to the full method mix.MethodsTo understand factors that impact young people's contraceptive decisionmaking process across all three countries, we conducted a total of 35 focus group discussions with 171 youth ages 15 to 24 and 130 in-depth interviews with key stakeholders working in youth family planning. Questionnaires aligned with the High Impact Practices in Family Planning's elements of adolescent-friendly contraceptive services. Data were coded with MAXQDA and analyzed using a framework for contraceptive decisionmaking to identify relevant patterns and themes.ResultsIn all three countries, youth reported that condoms are the most commonly sought contraceptive method because they are easiest to access and because youth have limited knowledge of other methods. Youth from diverse settings shared uncertainty and concern about the safety and side effects of many methods other than condoms, complicating their ability to take full advantage of other available methods. While most youth in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda reported at least moderate confidence in obtaining the information needed to help choose a method, and only a few youth reported that they are completely unable to access contraceptives, other barriers still present a major deterrent for youth, including cost, inconvenient facility hours and long wait times, and stigma from family, community members, and providers.ConclusionsYoung people's ability to fully exercise their method choice remains limited despite availability of services, leading them to take the path of least resistance. Program implementers and policymakers should consider the diverse and often interconnected barriers that youth face in attempting to enjoy the benefits of a full spectrum of contraceptive methods and design multi-level interventions to mitigate such barriers.

Project description:ObjectiveWe developed and validated a pragmatic risk assessment tool for identifying contraceptive discontinuation among Kenyan women who do not desire pregnancy.Study designWithin a prospective cohort of contraceptive users, participants were randomly allocated to derivation (n = 558) and validation (n = 186) cohorts. Risk scores were developed by selecting the Cox proportional hazards model with the minimum Akaike information criterion. Predictive performance was evaluated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curve (AUC).ResultsThe overall contraceptive discontinuation rate was 36.9 per 100 woman-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 30.3-44.9). The predictors of discontinuation selected for the risk score included use of a short-term method or copper intrauterine device (vs. injectable or implant), method continuation or switch (vs. initiation), < 9 years of completed education, not having a child aged < 6 months, and having no spouse or a spouse supportive of family planning (vs. having a spouse who has unsupportive or uncertain attitudes towards family planning). AUC at 24 weeks was 0.76 (95% CI 0.64-0.87) with 70.0% sensitivity and 78.6% specificity at the optimal cut point in the derivation cohort. Discontinuation was 3.8-fold higher among high- vs. low-risk women (95% CI 2.33-6.30). AUC was 0.68 (95% CI 0.47-0.90) in the validation cohort. A simplified score comprising routinely collected variables demonstrated similar performance (derivation-AUC: 0.73 [95% CI 0.60-0.85]; validation-AUC: 0.73 [95% CI 0.51-0.94]). Positive predictive value in the derivation cohort was 31.4% for the full and 28.1% for the simplified score.ConclusionsThe risk scores demonstrated moderate predictive ability but identified large proportions of women as high risk. Future research is needed to improve sensitivity and specificity of a clinical tool to identify women at high risk for experiencing method-related challenges.ImplicationsContraceptive discontinuation is a major driver of unmet contraceptive need globally. Few tools exist for identifying women who may benefit most from additional support in order to meet their contraceptive needs and preferences. This study developed and assessed the validity of a provider-focused risk prediction tool for contraceptive discontinuation among Kenyan women using modern contraception. High rates of early discontinuation observed in this study emphasize the necessity of investing in efforts to develop new contraceptive technologies and stronger delivery systems to better align with women's needs and preferences for voluntary family planning.

Project description:BackgroundIn sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births.ObjectiveThis paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso.DesignThe last three Demographic and Health Surveys - conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 - enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR), and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR).ResultsOverall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010), despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children.ConclusionsProgrammes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving the demand satisfied for modern contraception may result in a reduction in the percentage of women experiencing high-risk births and may also reduce child mortality.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Meeting targets of the Sustainable Development Goals in the domain of maternal health and the Family Planning 2020 commitments for Cameroon requires an increased use of modern contraception. Long acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) are methods which have been proven highly efficient with contraceptive failure rates of less than 1%. The objective of this survey was to determine the contraceptive method mix in the Biyem-Assi Health District and identify factors associated to the use of LARCs. METHODOLOGY:A cross-sectional community-based study was conducted from March 2015 to April 2015 targeting current female contraceptive users of childbearing age in the Biyem-Assi Health District. A multistep cluster sampling was used and data collected by trained surveyors using a pretested and validated questionnaire. Data were analysed using the statistical software Epi-Info version 3.5.4. Logistic regressions were used to identify associations between the use of LARCs and selected covariates and the strength of association measured with the odds ratio. RESULTS:A total of 437 eligible women were included in the survey. Their mean age was 26.7±5.8 years and 45.8% were in a union. The contraceptive method mix decreased in this order; male condoms (76.0%), female condoms (7.6%), oral contraceptive pills (5.0%), implants (4.6%), and intrauterine devices (3.4%) giving us a LARC rate of 8%. Only 54.0% and 46.9% of the participants reported to be knowledgeable of the implant and intrauterine device respectively. Their contraceptive choices were determined principally by perceived efficiency and accessibility. The major factor significantly associated to LARC use was the number of living children above 2 (AOR = 3.90[1.53-9.94], p-value = 0.004). Though not statistically significant, associations were found between LARC use and other factors like marital status, level of education, religion and future fertility desire. CONCLUSION:The rate of use of LARCs is still very low among these women. The number of living children is significantly associated with the use of LARCs. The local family planning policy makers should intensify sensitization on the benefits and side effects of modern contraception and LARCs in order to create more awareness and improve contraceptive uptake.

Project description:BackgroundEvidence shows that family planning contributes to the decline in child mortality by decreasing the proportions of births that are considered high risk. The main objective of the present analysis was to examine the trends in use of modern contraceptives and their relationship with total fertility rate (TFR) and distribution of births by demographic risk factors as defined by mother's age, birth interval, and birth order at the sub-national level in Ethiopia.DesignAnalyses used data from three Demographic and Health Surveys in Ethiopia (2000, 2005, and 2011), which are nationally representative data collected through questionnaire-based interviews from women 15-49 using a stratified, two-stage cluster sampling. First, we examined the trends of and relationship between TFR (in the 3 years before each survey) and modern contraceptive use among currently married women in all administrative regions over the time period 2000-2011 using linear regression analysis. We also examined the relationship between birth risks and under-five mortality using the no-risk group as a reference. Finally, multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the relationship between the effect of being a resident in one of the regions and having an avoidable birth risk (which includes births to mothers younger than 18 and older than 34 years, birth interval of less than 24 months and birth order higher than third) after adjusting for select covariates including wealth, educational status, residence, religion and exposure to family planning information.ResultsSub-national-level regression analysis showed an inverse relationship between modern contraceptive use among married women and the TFR, with an average decrease of TFR by one child per woman associated with a 13 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive use between 2000 and 2011. A high percentage of births in Ethiopia (62%) fall in one of the risk categories (excluding first births), with wide regional variation from 55% in Gambela to 72% in the Somali region. The multivariate analysis showed women living in the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions had significantly higher odds of having avoidable birth risk compared to those in Addis Ababa after controlling for observed covariates. The trend analysis showed there was a significant drop in the proportion of births from women above 34 years between 2000 and 2011. There was no significant decline in births to women less than 18 years between 2000 and 2011.ConclusionsA majority of births in Ethiopia fall in one of the risk categories, with substantial region-to-region variation in the percentage of births with avoidable risk factors, Somali and Afar having the highest burden. The analysis indicated that births in the three regions had significantly higher odds of having one of the avoidable risk factors compared to Addis Ababa, and we suggest family planning programmes need to identify differentials of modern contraceptive use at the sub-national level in order to better address coverage and equity issues.

Project description:BackgroundMeeting the contraceptive needs of women of reproductive age is beneficial for the health of women and children, and the economic and social empowerment of women. Higher rates of contraceptive coverage have been linked to the availability of a more diverse range of contraceptive methods. We present estimates of the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), demand satisfied, and the method of contraception used for both partnered and unpartnered women for 5-year age groups in 204 countries and territories between 1970 and 2019.MethodsWe used 1162 population-based surveys capturing contraceptive use among women between 1970 and 2019, in which women of reproductive age (15-49 years) self-reported their, or their partner's, current use of contraception for family planning purposes. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of the CPR, mCPR, demand satisfied, and method mix by age and marital status. We assessed how age-specific mCPR and demand satisfied changed with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of social and economic development, using the meta-regression Bayesian, regularised, trimmed method from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.FindingsIn 2019, 162·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155·6-170·2) women had unmet need for contraception, of whom 29·3% (27·9-30·6) resided in sub-Saharan Africa and 27·2% (24·4-30·3) resided in south Asia. Women aged 15-19 years (64·8% [62·9-66·7]) and 20-24 years (71·9% [68·9-74·2]) had the lowest rates of demand satisfied, with 43·2 million (95% UI 39·3-48·0) women aged 15-24 years with unmet need in 2019. The mCPR and demand satisfied among women aged 15-19 years were substantially lower than among women aged 20-49 years at SDI values below 60 (on a 0-100 scale), but began to equalise as SDI increased above 60. Between 1970 and 2019, the global mCPR increased by 20·1 percentage points (95% UI 18·7-21·6). During this time, traditional methods declined as a proportion of all contraceptive methods, whereas the use of implants, injections, female sterilisation, and condoms increased. Method mix differs substantially depending on age and geography, with the share of female sterilisation increasing with age and comprising more than 50% of methods in use in south Asia. In 28 countries, one method was used by more than 50% of users in 2019.InterpretationThe dominance of one contraceptive method in some locations raises the question of whether family planning policies should aim to expand method mix or invest in making existing methods more accessible. Lower rates of demand satisfied among women aged 15-24 years are also concerning because unintended pregnancies before age 25 years can forestall or eliminate education and employment opportunities that lead to social and economic empowerment. Policy makers should strive to tailor family planning programmes to the preferences of the groups with the most need, while maintaining the programmes used by existing users.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dataset Information

Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

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Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

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