Dataset Information

Is the EuroSCORE II reliable to estimate operative mortality among octogenarians?

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Concerns have been raised about the predictive performance (PP) of the EuroSCORE I (ES I) to estimate operative mortality (OM) of patients aged ?80. The EuroSCORE II (ES II) has been described to have better PP of OM but external validations are scarce. Furthermore, the PP of ES II has not been investigated among the octogenarians. The goal of the study was to compare the PP of ES II and ES I among the overall population and patients ? 80.

Methods

The ES I and ES II were computed for 7161 consecutive patients who underwent major cardiac surgery in a 7-year period. Discrimination was assessed by using the c- index and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) and calibration plot by comparing predicted and observed mortality.

Results

From the global cohort of 7161 patients, 832 (12%) were ?80. The mean values of ES I and ES II were 7.4±9.4 and 5.2±9.1 respectively for the whole cohort, 6.3±8.6 and 4.7±8.5 for the patients <80, 15.1±11.8 and 8.5±11.0 for the patients ?80. The mortality was 9.38% (?80) versus 5.18% (<80). The discriminatory power was good for the two algorithms among the whole population and the <80 but less satisfying among the ?80 (AUC 0.64 [0.58-0.71] for ES I and 0.67 [0.60-0.73] for the ES II without significant differences (p = 0.35) between the two scores. For the octogenarians, the ES II had a fair calibration until 10%-predicted values and over-predicted beyond.

Conclusions

The ES II has a better PP than the ES I among patients <80. Its discrimination and calibration are less satisfying in patients ?80, showing an overestimation in the elderly at very high-surgical risk. Nevertheless, it shows an acceptable calibration until 10%- predicted mortality.

SUBMITTER: Provenchere S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5690588 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Is the EuroSCORE II reliable to estimate operative mortality among octogenarians?

Provenchère Sophie S Chevalier Arnaud A Ghodbane Walid W Bouleti Claire C Montravers Philippe P Longrois Dan D Iung Bernard B

PloS one 20171116 11

<h4>Objectives</h4>Concerns have been raised about the predictive performance (PP) of the EuroSCORE I (ES I) to estimate operative mortality (OM) of patients aged ≥80. The EuroSCORE II (ES II) has been described to have better PP of OM but external validations are scarce. Furthermore, the PP of ES II has not been investigated among the octogenarians. The goal of the study was to compare the PP of ES II and ES I among the overall population and patients ≥ 80.<h4>Methods</h4>The ES I and ES II wer ...[more]

PMID: 29145434

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Project description:ObjectivesPlasma troponins, measured by fourth-generation assays, are associated with increased mortality and morbidity after cardiac surgery. They also offer predictive information in addition to EuroSCORE, a widely used risk model after cardiac surgery. However, preoperatively measured troponin has provided no additional information to postoperative values. Whether these facts hold true also for the high-sensitivity fifth-generation troponin assay and the better calibrated risk model, EuroSCORE II, is unknown. We hypothesized that preoperative and/or postoperative high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) would increase the predictive value of EuroSCORE II.MethodsConsecutive coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and other cardiac surgical patients were prospectively enrolled in a university hospital. Plasma samples and EuroSCORE II variables were collected. The primary and secondary end-points were 180-day mortality and any major adverse event within 30 days, and 961-day mortality. The data were analysed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves, regression analyses, receiver operator characteristic curves and decision curve analysis.ResultsMortality rates in 180 days were 3.5% (15/428) in CABG and 6.4% (14/220) in other cardiac surgical patients. Survival curves differed only in patients with not only high postoperative hs-TnT value (>500 ng/l), but also high preoperative hs-TnT value (>14 ng/l), compared with patients with both hs-TnT values low. Adding hs-TnT to EuroSCORE II improved the prediction of 180-day mortality in other cardiac surgical patients (maximum net benefit of 1.5%), but not in CABG patients. Regarding major adverse events, adding hs-TnT to EuroSCORE II improved the prediction in both CABG patients and other cardiac surgical patients (maximum net benefits of 3 and 7%).ConclusionsElevated postoperative hs-TnT was predictive of mortality only when combined with elevated preoperative hs-TnT. Hs-TnT measurements added information to the EuroSCORE II regarding major adverse events in all cardiac surgical patients and regarding 180-day mortality in non-CABG patients.

Dataset Information

Is the EuroSCORE II reliable to estimate operative mortality among octogenarians?

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Is the EuroSCORE II reliable to estimate operative mortality among octogenarians?

Similar Datasets

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