Dataset Information

Is the EuroSCORE II reliable to estimate operative mortality among octogenarians?

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Concerns have been raised about the predictive performance (PP) of the EuroSCORE I (ES I) to estimate operative mortality (OM) of patients aged ?80. The EuroSCORE II (ES II) has been described to have better PP of OM but external validations are scarce. Furthermore, the PP of ES II has not been investigated among the octogenarians. The goal of the study was to compare the PP of ES II and ES I among the overall population and patients ? 80.

Methods

The ES I and ES II were computed for 7161 consecutive patients who underwent major cardiac surgery in a 7-year period. Discrimination was assessed by using the c- index and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) and calibration plot by comparing predicted and observed mortality.

Results

From the global cohort of 7161 patients, 832 (12%) were ?80. The mean values of ES I and ES II were 7.4±9.4 and 5.2±9.1 respectively for the whole cohort, 6.3±8.6 and 4.7±8.5 for the patients <80, 15.1±11.8 and 8.5±11.0 for the patients ?80. The mortality was 9.38% (?80) versus 5.18% (<80). The discriminatory power was good for the two algorithms among the whole population and the <80 but less satisfying among the ?80 (AUC 0.64 [0.58-0.71] for ES I and 0.67 [0.60-0.73] for the ES II without significant differences (p = 0.35) between the two scores. For the octogenarians, the ES II had a fair calibration until 10%-predicted values and over-predicted beyond.

Conclusions

The ES II has a better PP than the ES I among patients <80. Its discrimination and calibration are less satisfying in patients ?80, showing an overestimation in the elderly at very high-surgical risk. Nevertheless, it shows an acceptable calibration until 10%- predicted mortality.

SUBMITTER: Provenchere S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5690588 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Is the EuroSCORE II reliable to estimate operative mortality among octogenarians?

Provenchère Sophie S Chevalier Arnaud A Ghodbane Walid W Bouleti Claire C Montravers Philippe P Longrois Dan D Iung Bernard B

PloS one 20171116 11

<h4>Objectives</h4>Concerns have been raised about the predictive performance (PP) of the EuroSCORE I (ES I) to estimate operative mortality (OM) of patients aged ≥80. The EuroSCORE II (ES II) has been described to have better PP of OM but external validations are scarce. Furthermore, the PP of ES II has not been investigated among the octogenarians. The goal of the study was to compare the PP of ES II and ES I among the overall population and patients ≥ 80.<h4>Methods</h4>The ES I and ES II wer ...[more]

PMID: 29145434

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Octogenarians and nonagenarians with stage II/III rectal adenocarcinomas are underrepresented in the randomized trials that have established the standard-of-care therapy of preoperative chemoradiation followed by definitive resection (ie, chemoradiation and then surgery [CRT+S]). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of therapies on overall survival (OS) for patients with stage II/III rectal cancers and determine predictors of therapy within the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB). METHODS:In the NCDB, patients who were 80 years old or older and had clinical stage II/III rectal adenocarcinoma from 2004 to 2013 were queried. Kaplan-Meier analysis, log-rank testing, logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards regression, interaction effect testing, and propensity score-matched analysis were conducted. RESULTS:The criteria were met by 2723 patients: 14.9% received no treatment, 29.7% had surgery alone, 5.0% underwent short-course radiation and then surgery (RT+S), 45.3% underwent CRT+S, and 5.1% underwent surgery and then chemoradiation (S+CRT). African American race and residence in a less educated county were associated with not receiving treatment. Male sex, older age, worsening comorbidities, and receiving no treatment or undergoing surgery alone were associated with worse OS. There was no statistical difference in OS between RT+S, S+CRT, and CRT+S. Interaction testing found that CRT+S improved OS independently of age, comorbidity status, sex, race, and tumor stage. In the propensity score-matched analysis, CRT+S was associated with improved OS in comparison with surgery alone. CONCLUSIONS:A significant portion of octogenarians and nonagenarians with stage II/III rectal adenocarcinomas do not receive treatment. African American race and living in a less educated community are associated with not receiving therapy. This series suggests that CRT+S is a reasonable strategy for elderly patients who can tolerate therapy. Cancer 2017;123:4325-36. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

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Project description:Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia and post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a major healthcare burden, contributing to an increased risk of stroke, kidney failure, heart attack and death. Genetic studies have identified associations with AF, but no molecular diagnostic exists to predict POAF based on pre-operative measurements. Such a tool would be of great value for perioperative planning to improve patient care and reduce healthcare costs. In this pilot study of epigenetic precision medicine in the perioperative period, we carried out bisulfite sequencing to measure DNA methylation status in blood collected from patients prior to cardiac surgery to identify biosignatures of POAF. Methods: We enrolled 221 patients undergoing cardiac surgery in this prospective observational study. DNA methylation measurements were obtained from blood samples drawn from awake patients prior to surgery. After controlling for clinical and methylation covariates, we analyzed DNA methylation loci in the discovery cohort of 110 patients for association with POAF. We also constructed predictive models for POAF using clinical and DNA methylation data. We subsequently performed targeted analyses of a separate cohort of 101 cardiac surgical patients to measure the methylation status solely of significant methylation loci in the discovery cohort. Results: A total of 47 patients in the discovery cohort (42.7%) and 43 patients in the validation cohort (42.6%) developed POAF. We identified 12 CpGs that were statistically significant in the discovery cohort after correcting for multiple hypothesis testing. Of these sites, 6 were amenable to targeted bisulfite sequencing and chr16:24640902 was statistically significant in the validation cohort. In addition, the methylation POAF prediction model had an AUC of 0.79 in the validation cohort. Conclusions: We have identified DNA methylation biomarkers that can predict future occurrence of POAF associated with cardiac surgery. This research demonstrates the use of precision medicine to develop models combining epigenomic and clinical data to predict disease.

Dataset Information

Is the EuroSCORE II reliable to estimate operative mortality among octogenarians?

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Is the EuroSCORE II reliable to estimate operative mortality among octogenarians?

Similar Datasets

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