Dataset Information

Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict.

ABSTRACT: The Syrian armed conflict has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources and aid to the affected areas. In this article, we use information on the daily number of deaths to study temporal and spatial correlations in the data, and exploit this information to forecast events of deaths. We found that the number of violent deaths per day in Syria varies more widely than that in England in which non-violent deaths dominate. We have identified strong positive auto-correlations in Syrian cities and non-trivial cross-correlations across some of them. The results indicate synchronization in the number of deaths at different times and locations, suggesting respectively that local attacks are followed by more attacks at subsequent days and that coordinated attacks may also take place across different locations. Thus the analysis of high temporal resolution data across multiple cities makes it possible to infer attack strategies, warn potential occurrence of future events, and hopefully avoid further deaths.

SUBMITTER: Fujita K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5691154 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict.

Fujita Kazuki K Shinomoto Shigeru S Rocha Luis E C LEC

Scientific reports 20171116 1

The Syrian armed conflict has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources and aid to the affected areas. In this article, we use information on the daily number of deaths to study temporal and spatial correlations in the data, and exploit this information to forecast events of deaths. We found that the number of violent deaths per day in Syria varies more widely t ...[more]

PMID: 29146926

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Project description:Psychopathology is a risk factor for accelerated biological aging and early mortality. We examined associations between broad underlying dimensions of psychopathology (reflecting internalizing and externalizing psychiatric symptoms), PTSD, and age-adjusted GrimAge ("GrimAge residuals"), a DNA methylation biomarker of mortality risk relative to age. We also examined neurobiological correlates of GrimAge residuals, including neurocognitive functioning, blood-based biomarkers (of inflammation, neuropathology, metabolic disease), and cortical thickness. Data from two independent trauma-exposed military cohorts (n = 647 [62.9% male, Mage = 52], n = 434 [90% male, Mage = 32]) were evaluated using linear regression models to test associations between GrimAge residuals, psychopathology, and health correlates. Externalizing psychopathology significantly predicted GrimAge residuals in both cohorts (ps < 0.028). PTSD predicted GrimAge residuals in the younger (p = 0.001) but not the older cohort. GrimAge residuals were associated with several neurobiological variables available in the younger cohort, including cognitive disinhibition (padj = 0.021), poorer memory recall (padj = 0.023), cardiometabolic pathology (padj < 0.001), oxidative stress (padj = 0.003), astrocyte damage (padj = 0.021), inflammation (C-reactive protein: padj < 0.001; IL-6: padj < 0.001), and immune functioning (padj < 0.001). A subset of inflammatory and neuropathology analytes were available in the older cohort and showed associations with GrimAge residuals (IL-6: padj < 0.001; TNF-α: padj < 0.001). GrimAge residuals were also associated with reduced cortical thickness in right lateral orbitofrontal cortex (padj = 0.018) and left fusiform gyrus (padj = 0.030), which are related to emotion regulation and facial recognition, respectively. Psychopathology may be a common risk factor for elevated mortality risk. GrimAge could help identify those at risk for adverse health outcomes and allow for early disease identification and treatment.

Project description:Background: The working conditions at universities and hospitals are reported to be stressful. Several national and international studies have investigated occupational stress in hospitals. However, scientific studies at colleges and universities addressing psycho-social stress factors and their potential consequences are scarce. In this context, the consequences and correlations of the factor of work-family conflict, in particular, are currently uninvestigated. The aim of our study was to assess data on psychosocial stress in the context of the compatibility of work and family. Methods: Data were gathered through a cross-sectional-study, N = 844 (55% female, 41% male), on university staff (42.3% scientists, 14.3% physicians, 19.4% employees in administration, and 19.3% employees in service). Participants filled out questionnaires to provide their personal data and details of their work and private life conditions. For this purpose, we used the Work-Family and Family-Work Conflict Scales, Effort-Reward Inventory and Overcommitment Scale (ERI, OC), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4), short-form Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI), and questions on their subjective health. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 22. Results: We found high levels of stress parameters in the total sample: extra work (83%), fixed-term work contracts (53%), overcommitment (OC, 26%), Effort-Reward Imbalance (18%, ERI Ratio > cut-off 0.715), work-family conflict (WFC, 35%), and family-work conflict (FWC, 39%). As hypothesized, we found significant correlations of both WFC and FWC with psychosocial work strain (ERI Ratio) as well as overcommitment (OC). Mental and somatic health parameters also had a significant positive correlation with WFC and FWC. Using a regression analysis (N = 844), we identified WFC as a predictor of burnout, while emotional exhaustion, extra work, and overcommitment could be identified as predictors of WFC and FWC. Discussion: The results of our study point toward deficits in the compatibility of work life and private life in the work fields of science, colleges, and universities. Furthermore, we found indicators that work-family conflicts (interrole conflicts) have an impact on mental and somatic health. These work-family conflicts should be targets for preventions and interventions with the aim of improving the work-life balance and mental and somatic wellbeing of employees.

Dataset Information

Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict.

Publications

Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict.

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