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Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The study aimed (1) to quantify differences in modifiable risk factors between urban and rural populations, and (2) to determine the number of rural cardiovascular disease (CVD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths that could be averted or delayed if risk factor levels in rural areas were equivalent to metropolitan areas. SETTING:National population estimates, risk factor prevalence, CVD and IHD deaths data were analysed by rurality using a macrosimulation Preventable Risk Integrated Model for chronic disease risk. Uncertainty analysis was conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation of 10?000 iterations to calculate 95% credible intervals (CIs). PARTICIPANTS:National data sets of men and women over the age of 18 years living in urban and rural Australia. RESULTS:If people living in rural Australia had the same levels of risk factors as those in metropolitan areas, approximately 1461 (95% CI 1107 to 1791) deaths could be delayed from CVD annually. Of these CVD deaths, 793 (95% CI 506 to 1065) would be from IHD. The IHD mortality gap between metropolitan and rural populations would be reduced by 38.2% (95% CI 24.4% to 50.6%). CONCLUSIONS:A significant portion of deaths from CVD and IHD could be averted with improvements in risk factors; more than one-third of the excess IHD deaths in rural Australia were attributed to differences in risk factors. As much as two-thirds of the increased IHD mortality rate in rural areas could not be accounted for by modifiable risk factors, however, and this requires further investigation.

SUBMITTER: Alston L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5695309 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study.

Alston Laura L Peterson Karen Louise KL Jacobs Jane P JP Allender Steven S Nichols Melanie M

BMJ open 20171103 11

<h4>Objectives</h4>The study aimed (1) to quantify differences in modifiable risk factors between urban and rural populations, and (2) to determine the number of rural cardiovascular disease (CVD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths that could be averted or delayed if risk factor levels in rural areas were equivalent to metropolitan areas.<h4>Setting</h4>National population estimates, risk factor prevalence, CVD and IHD deaths data were analysed by rurality using a macrosimulation Preventab ...[more]

PMID: 29101149

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Project description:BackgroundCardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with 'high blood pressure' or 'high cholesterol', to prevention based on a patient's absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term.MethodsWe evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year.ResultsCardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as $7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand.ConclusionsChanging to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010.

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Project description:To assess differences in cardiovascular risk profiles among rural-to-urban migrants and non-migrant groups.Cross-sectional study in Ayacucho and Lima, Peru. Participants were: rural (n=201); rural-to-urban migrants (n=589); and urban (n=199). Cardiovascular risk factors were assessed according to migrant status (migrants vs non-migrants), age at first migration, length of residency in an urban area and lifetime exposure to an urban area.For most risk factors, the migrant group had intermediate levels of risk between those observed for the rural and urban groups. Prevalence for rural, migrant and urban groups was 3%, 20% and 33%, respectively, for obesity, and 0.8%, 3% and 6% for type-2 diabetes. This gradient of risk was not observed uniformly across all risk factors. Blood pressure did not show a clear gradient of difference between groups. The migrant group had similar systolic blood pressure but lower diastolic blood pressure than the rural group. The urban group had higher systolic blood pressure but similar diastolic blood pressure than rural group. Hypertension was more prevalent among the urban (29%) than both the rural and migrant groups (11% and 16%, respectively). For HbA(1c), although the urban group had higher levels, the migrant and rural groups were similar to each other. No differences were observed in triglycerides between the three groups. Within migrants, those who migrated when aged older than 12 years had higher odds of diabetes, impaired fasting glucose and metabolic syndrome compared to people who migrated at younger ages. Adjustment for age, sex and socioeconomic indicators had little impact on the patterns observed.The impact of rural-to-urban migration on cardiovascular risk profile is not uniform across different risk factors, and is further influenced by the age at which migration occurs. A gradient in levels was observed for some risk factors across study groups. This observation indicates that urbanisation is indeed detrimental to cardiovascular health.

Dataset Information

Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study.

Publications

Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study.

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