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Comparison of fracture risk assessment tools in older men without prior hip or spine fracture: the MrOS study.

ABSTRACT: Femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), age plus femoral neck BMD T score, and three externally generated fracture risk tools had similar accuracy to identify older men who developed osteoporotic fractures. Risk tools with femoral neck BMD performed better than those without BMD. The externally developed risk tools were poorly calibrated. INTRODUCTION:We compared the performance of fracture risk assessment tools in older men, accounting for competing risks including mortality. METHODS:A comparative ROC curve analysis assessed the ability of the QFracture, FRAX® and Garvan fracture risk tools, and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) T score with or without age to identify incident fracture in community-dwelling men aged 65 years or older (N = 4994) without hip or clinical vertebral fracture or antifracture treatment at baseline. RESULTS:Among risk tools calculated with BMD, the discriminative ability to identify men with incident hip fracture was similar for FRAX (AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.73, 0.81), the Garvan tool (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.74, 0.82), age plus femoral neck BMD T score (AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.75, 0.83), and femoral neck BMD T score alone (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.72, 0.81). Among risk tools calculated without BMD, the discriminative ability to identify hip fracture was similar for QFracture (AUC 0.69, 95% CI 0.66, 0.73), FRAX (AUC 0.70, 95% CI 0.66, 0.73), and the Garvan tool (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.67, 0.74). Correlated ROC curve analyses revealed better diagnostic accuracy for risk scores calculated with BMD compared with QFracture (P < 0.0001). Calibration was good for the internally generated BMD T score predictor with or without age and poor for the externally developed risk tools. CONCLUSION:In untreated older men without fragility fractures at baseline, an age plus femoral neck BMD T score classifier identified men with incident hip fracture as accurately as more complicated fracture risk scores.

SUBMITTER: Gourlay ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5695884 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparison of fracture risk assessment tools in older men without prior hip or spine fracture: the MrOS study.

Gourlay Margaret L ML Ritter Victor S VS Fine Jason P JP Overman Robert A RA Schousboe John T JT Cawthon Peggy M PM Orwoll Eric S ES Nguyen Tuan V TV Lane Nancy E NE Cummings Steven R SR Kado Deborah M DM Lapidus Jodi A JA Diem Susan J SJ Ensrud Kristine E KE

Archives of osteoporosis 20171020 1

Femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), age plus femoral neck BMD T score, and three externally generated fracture risk tools had similar accuracy to identify older men who developed osteoporotic fractures. Risk tools with femoral neck BMD performed better than those without BMD. The externally developed risk tools were poorly calibrated.<h4>Introduction</h4>We compared the performance of fracture risk assessment tools in older men, accounting for competing risks including mortality.<h4>Methods ...[more]

PMID: 29052793

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Higher serum cystatin C level is associated with an increased risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal white women, but there is a paucity of data for men. Whether estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on cystatin C (eGFRcys) is superior in predicting hip fracture risk to eGFR based on creatinine (eGFRcr) or the combination (eGFR(cr-cys)) also is uncertain. STUDY DESIGN:Nested case-cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:Participants enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study (5,994 men aged ? 65 years from 6 US centers) including a random subcohort of 1,602 men and 168 men with incident hip fractures (51 of whom were in the subcohort). PREDICTOR:eGFR(cys), eGFR(cr), and eGFR(cr-cys) computed using the CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) equations and expressed in categories of <60, 60-74, and ? 75 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (referent group). OUTCOME:Incident hip fracture ascertained by participant contacts every 4 months and confirmed with radiographic reports. RESULTS:Median eGFR(cys) was 72.9 (IQR, 60.5-85.7) mL/min/1.73 m(2). In unadjusted models, all measures of eGFR were associated with increased hip fracture risk. However, after adjustment for age, race, site, and body mass index, the association of lower eGFR(cys) (but not lower eGFR(cr) or lower eGFR(cr-cys)) with higher hip fracture risk remained: for <60 versus ? 75 mL/min/1.73 m(2), HRs were 1.96 [95% CI, 1.25-3.09], 0.84 [95% CI, 0.52-1.37], and 1.08 [95% CI, 0.66-1.77] for eGFR(cys), eGFR(cr), and eGFR(cr-cys), respectively. Similarly, after adjustment for age, race, site, and body mass index, eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) defined by eGFR(cys), but not eGFR(cr) or eGFR(cr-cys), was associated with higher hip fracture risk. The association between eGFR(cys) and hip fracture was not explained by levels of calciotropic hormones or inflammatory markers, but the relationship was attenuated and no longer reached significance (for <60 vs ? 75 mL/min/1.73 m(2): HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.88-2.34) after consideration of additional clinical risk factors and bone mineral density. LIMITATIONS:Findings not generalizable to other populations; residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSIONS:Older community-dwelling men with lower eGFR(cys) have an increased risk of hip fracture that is explained in large part by greater burden of risk factors among men with lower eGFR(cys). In contrast, lower eGFR(cr) or lower eGFR(cr-cys) was not associated with a higher age-adjusted hip fracture risk.

Project description:Among 377,561 female Medicare beneficiaries who sustained a fracture, 10% had another fracture within 1 year, 18% within 2 years, and 31% within 5 years. Timely management to reduce risk of subsequent fracture is warranted following all nontraumatic fractures, including nonhip nonvertebral fractures, in older women.IntroductionPrior fracture is a strong predictor of subsequent fracture; however, postfracture treatment rates are low. Quantifying imminent (12-24 month) risk of subsequent fracture in older women may clarify the need for early postfracture management.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study used Medicare administrative claims data. Women ≥ 65 years who sustained a clinical fracture (clinical vertebral and nonvertebral fracture; index date) and were continuously enrolled for 1-year pre-index and ≥ 1-year (≥ 2 or ≥ 5 years for outcomes at those time points) post-index were included. Cumulative incidence of subsequent fracture was calculated from 30 days post-index to 1, 2, and 5 years post-index. For appendicular fractures, only those requiring hospitalization or surgical repair were counted. Death was considered a competing risk.ResultsAmong 377,561 women (210,621 and 10,969 for 2- and 5-year outcomes), cumulative risk of subsequent fracture was 10%, 18%, and 31% at 1, 2, and 5 years post-index, respectively. Among women age 65-74 years with initial clinical vertebral, hip, pelvis, femur, or clavicle fractures and all women ≥ 75 years regardless of initial fracture site (except ankle and tibia/fibula), 7-14% fractured again within 1 year depending on initial fracture site; risk rose to 15-26% within 2 years and 28-42% within 5 years. Risk of subsequent hip fracture exceeded 3% within 5 years in all women studied, except those < 75 years with an initial tibia/fibula or ankle fracture.ConclusionsWe observed a high and early risk of subsequent fracture following a broad array of initial fractures. Timely management with consideration of pharmacotherapy is warranted in older women following all fracture types evaluated.

Project description:High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) assesses both volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) and trabecular and cortical microarchitecture. However, studies of the association of HR-pQCT parameters with fracture history have been small, predominantly limited to postmenopausal women, often performed limited adjustment for potential confounders including for BMD, and infrequently assessed strength or failure measures. We used data from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study, a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling men aged ?65?years, to evaluate the association of distal radius, proximal (diaphyseal) tibia and distal tibia HR-pQCT parameters measured at the Year 14 (Y14) study visit with prior clinical fracture. The primary HR-pQCT exposure variables were finite element analysis estimated failure loads (EFL) for each skeletal site; secondary exposure variables were total vBMD, total bone area, trabecular vBMD, trabecular bone area, trabecular thickness, trabecular number, cortical vBMD, cortical bone area, cortical thickness, and cortical porosity. Clinical fractures were ascertained from questionnaires administered every 4?months between MrOS study baseline and the Y14 visit and centrally adjudicated by masked review of radiographic reports. We used multivariate-adjusted logistic regression to estimate the odds of prior clinical fracture per 1 SD decrement for each Y14 HR-pQCT parameter. Three hundred forty-four (19.2%) of the 1794 men with available HR-pQCT measures had a confirmed clinical fracture between baseline and Y14. After multivariable adjustment, including for total hip areal BMD, decreased HR-pQCT finite element analysis EFL for each site was associated with significantly greater odds of prior confirmed clinical fracture and major osteoporotic fracture. Among other HR-pQCT parameters, decreased cortical area appeared to have the strongest independent association with prior clinical fracture. Future studies should explore associations of HR-pQCT parameters with specific fracture types and risk of incident fractures and the impact of age and sex on these relationships.

Dataset Information

Comparison of fracture risk assessment tools in older men without prior hip or spine fracture: the MrOS study.

Publications

Comparison of fracture risk assessment tools in older men without prior hip or spine fracture: the MrOS study.

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