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Adjusting for covariates in evaluating markers for selecting treatment, with application to guiding chemotherapy for treating estrogen-receptor-positive, node-positive breast cancer.

ABSTRACT: In many clinical contexts, biomarkers that predict treatment efficacy are highly sought after. Such treatment selection or predictive biomarkers have the potential to identify subgroups most likely to benefit from the treatment, and may therefore be used to improve clinical outcomes and reduce medical costs. A methodological challenge in evaluating these biomarkers is determining how to take into account other variables that predict clinical outcomes, or that influence the biomarker distribution, generically termed covariates. We distinguish between two questions that arise when evaluating markers in the context of covariates. First, what is the biomarker's added value for selecting treatment, over and above the covariates? Second, what is the marker's performance within covariate strata-does performance vary? We lay out statistical methodology for addressing each of these questions. We argue that the common approach of testing for the marker's statistical interaction with treatment, in the context of a multivariate model that includes the covariates as predictors, does not directly address either question. We illustrate the methodology in new analyses of the Oncotype DX Recurrence Score, a marker used to select adjuvant chemotherapy for the treatment of estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer.

SUBMITTER: Janes H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5696084 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adjusting for covariates in evaluating markers for selecting treatment, with application to guiding chemotherapy for treating estrogen-receptor-positive, node-positive breast cancer.

Janes Holly H Brown Marshall D MD Crager Michael R MR Miller Dave P DP Barlow William E WE

Contemporary clinical trials 20170814

In many clinical contexts, biomarkers that predict treatment efficacy are highly sought after. Such treatment selection or predictive biomarkers have the potential to identify subgroups most likely to benefit from the treatment, and may therefore be used to improve clinical outcomes and reduce medical costs. A methodological challenge in evaluating these biomarkers is determining how to take into account other variables that predict clinical outcomes, or that influence the biomarker distribution ...[more]

PMID: 28818434

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Project description:ImportanceBreast cancer risk and comorbidities increase with age. Data are lacking on the association of adjuvant chemotherapy with survival in elderly patients with multiple comorbidities and node-positive breast cancer.ObjectiveTo examine the association of chemotherapy with survival in elderly patients with multiple comorbidities and estrogen receptor-positive, node-positive breast cancer.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study included patients in the US National Cancer Database who were 70 years or older; had a Charlson/Deyo comorbidity score of 2 or 3; had estrogen receptor-positive, ERBB2 (formerly HER2 or HER2/neu)-negative breast cancer; and underwent surgery for pathologic node-positive breast cancer from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2014. Propensity scores were used to match patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy with those not receiving adjuvant chemotherapy based on age, comorbidity score, facility type, facility location, pathologic T and N stage, and receipt of adjuvant endocrine and radiation therapy. Data analysis was performed from December 13, 2018, to April 28, 2020.ExposuresChemotherapy.Main outcomes and measuresThe association of adjuvant chemotherapy with overall survival was estimated using a double robust Cox proportional hazards regression model.ResultsOf a total of 2 445 870 patients in the data set, 1592 patients (mean [SD] age, 77.5 [5.5] years; 1543 [96.9%] female) met the inclusion criteria and were included in the initial nonmatched analysis. Of these patients, 350 (22.0%) received chemotherapy and 1242 (78.0%) did not. Compared with patients who did not receive chemotherapy, patients who received chemotherapy were younger (mean age, 74 vs 78 years; P < .001), had larger primary tumors (pT3/T4 tumors: 72 [20.6%] vs 182 [14.7%]; P = .005), and had higher pathologic nodal burden (75 [21.4%] vs 81 [6.5%] with stage pN3 disease and 182 [52.0%] vs 936 [75.4%] with stage pN1 disease; P < .001). More patients who received chemotherapy also received other adjuvant treatments, including endocrine therapy (309 [88.3%] vs 1025 [82.5%]; P = .01) and radiation therapy (236 [67.4%] vs 540 [43.5%]; P < .001). In the matched cohort, with a median follow-up of 43.1 months (95% CI, 39.6-46.5 months), no statistically significant difference was found in median overall survival between the chemotherapy and no chemotherapy groups (78.9 months [95% CI, 78.9 months to not reached] vs 62.7 months [95% CI, 56.2 months to not reached]; P = .13). After adjustment for potential confounding factors, receipt of chemotherapy was associated with improved survival (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.48-0.93; P = .02).Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study found that in node-positive, estrogen receptor-positive elderly patients with breast cancer and multiple comorbidities, receipt of chemotherapy was associated with improved overall survival. Despite attempts to adjust for selection bias, these findings suggest that physicians carefully selected patients likely to derive treatment benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy based on certain unmeasured variables. A standardized, multidisciplinary approach to care may be associated with long-term treatment outcomes in this subset of the population.

Project description:In this study, we aimed to evaluate axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) rates and prognosis in neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) compare with neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NET) in estrogen receptor-positive (ER+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-), lymph node (LN)-positive, premenopausal breast cancer patients (NCT01622361). The multicenter, phase 3, randomized clinical trial enrolled 187 women from July 5, 2012, to May 30, 2017. The patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either 24 weeks of NCT including adriamycin plus cyclophosphamide followed by intravenous docetaxel, or NET involving goserelin acetate and daily tamoxifen. ALND was performed based on the surgeon’s decision. The primary endpoint was ALND rate and surgical outcome after preoperative treatment. The secondary endpoint was long-term survival. Among the 187 randomized patients, pre- and post- neoadjuvant systemic therapy (NST) assessments were available for 170 patients. After NST, 49.4% of NCT patients and 55.4% of NET patients underwent mastectomy after treatment completion. The rate of ALND was significantly lower in the NCT group than in the NET group (55.2% vs. 69.9%, P=.046). Following surgery, the NET group showed a significantly higher mean number of removed LNs (14.96 vs. 11.74, P=.003) and positive LNs (4.84 vs. 2.92, P=.000) than the NCT group. The axillary pathologic complete response (pCR) rate was significantly higher in the NCT group (13.8% vs. 4.8%, P=.045) than in the NET group. During a median follow-up of 67.3 months, 19 patients in the NCT group and 12 patients in the NET group reported recurrence. The 5-year ARFS (97.5%vs. 100%, P=.077), DFS (77.2% vs. 84.8%, P=.166), and OS (97.5% vs. 94.7%, P=.304) rates did not differ significantly between the groups. In conclusion, although survival did not differ significantly, more NCT patients might able to avoid ALND, with fewer LNs removed with lower LN positivity. Clinical Trial Registration https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01622361, identifier NCT01622361.

Dataset Information

Adjusting for covariates in evaluating markers for selecting treatment, with application to guiding chemotherapy for treating estrogen-receptor-positive, node-positive breast cancer.

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Adjusting for covariates in evaluating markers for selecting treatment, with application to guiding chemotherapy for treating estrogen-receptor-positive, node-positive breast cancer.

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