Dataset Information

Cancer mortality trends in an industrial district of Shanghai, China, from 1974 to 2014, and projections to 2029.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to characterize the trends and projections of cancer mortalities in Yangpu, an industry restructuring district of Shanghai, China. With high-quality data from the death registration system, the authors analyzed the trends in cancer mortalities during 1974-2014 and their relationship with pollution control and socioeconomic improvements. Cancer burden was projected into 2029. During 1974-2014, cancer death accounted for 28.80% of all-cause death. The 5 leading causes of cancer death were cancers of the lung & bronchus, stomach, liver, colon & rectum, and esophagus. Age-standardized mortality of all cancers was higher in men than in women (153.1/105vs. 88.8/105, p<0.001) and increased from 1974 to 1991 and decreased thereafter. The mortalities of cancers of the larynx, bladder, liver, nasopharynx, lung & bronchus, esophagus, lip oral & pharynx, stomach, kidney, and lymphoma were significantly higher in men than in women. Age-standardized mortalities of cancers of the esophagus, stomach, leukemia, female nasopharynx, female bladder, liver, and bone decreased especially after the 1990s, those of the colon & rectum, kidney, prostate, pancreas, breast, gallbladder, and ovary increased significantly. Lung cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer in women and lung cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, and stomach cancer in men will be the leading causes of cancer death in 2025-2029. Cancer-caused life loss kept increasing since 2000. Conclusively, cancers associated with pollutions and infection decreased, especially after the 1990s, while those related to metabolic syndrome increased. These trends are related to closedown of polluted industries in the 1980s and lifestyle changes.

SUBMITTER: Li M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5696197 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cancer mortality trends in an industrial district of Shanghai, China, from 1974 to 2014, and projections to 2029.

Li Mi M Wang Shuo S Han Xue X Liu Wenbin W Song Jiahui J Zhang Hongwei H Zhao Jia J Yang Fan F Tan Xiaojie X Chen Xi X Liu Yan Y Li Hui H Ding Yibo Y Du Xiaoyu X Yin Jianhua J Zhang Rong R Cao Guangwen G

Oncotarget 20170930 54

We aimed to characterize the trends and projections of cancer mortalities in Yangpu, an industry restructuring district of Shanghai, China. With high-quality data from the death registration system, the authors analyzed the trends in cancer mortalities during 1974-2014 and their relationship with pollution control and socioeconomic improvements. Cancer burden was projected into 2029. During 1974-2014, cancer death accounted for 28.80% of all-cause death. The 5 leading causes of cancer death were ...[more]

PMID: 29190931

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Project description:BackgroundBreast cancer incidence rates are increasing among Asian women, likely due to the changes in risk factors caused by globalization. Trends in breast cancer rates among Chinese women may differ from other Asian regions due to the implementation of a nationwide family planning program and resulting changes in women's reproductive practices. Appraisal of cancer trends can direct cancer control and public health planning, but relevant studies in China are scarce due to a lack of long-term data. We sought to evaluate secular time trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality using 40 years of cancer registry data for women in urban Shanghai.Materials and methodsData on invasive breast cancer incidence and mortality were collected by the Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence and mortality were calculated using the Segi/Doll 1960 world standard population. Age, period, and birth cohort effects were evaluated using age-period-cohort (APC) Poisson regression models. Overall linear trends, interpreted as the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), were derived from the net drift in age-drift models.ResultsA total of 53 885 breast cancer cases and 17 235 breast cancer-specific deaths were documented among women in urban Shanghai between 1 January 1973 and 31 December 2012. Breast cancer incidence and mortality ASRs increased by 141.2% and 26.6%, respectively. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were identified in both incidence and mortality APC models; cohort effects were pronounced. Overall, a substantial increase in breast cancer incidence (EAPC = 2.96%/year) and a moderate increase in breast cancer mortality (EAPC = 0.87%/year) was observed. A notable downward trend in mortality was identified among younger women born after 1960.ConclusionsForty years of cancer registry data document a tremendous increase in incidence and a slight increase in mortality for breast cancer among women in Shanghai. Effective, appropriate, and affordable breast cancer prevention and control strategies are urgently needed in China.

Project description:ImportanceThyroid cancer incidence has increased substantially in the United States over the last 4 decades, driven largely by increases in papillary thyroid cancer. It is unclear whether the increasing incidence of papillary thyroid cancer has been related to thyroid cancer mortality trends.ObjectiveTo compare trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality by tumor characteristics at diagnosis.Design, setting, and participantsTrends in thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-9 (SEER-9) cancer registry program, and annual percent change in rates was calculated using log-linear regression.ExposureTumor characteristics.Main outcomes and measuresAnnual percent changes in age-adjusted thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates by histologic type and SEER stage for cases diagnosed during 1974-2013.ResultsAmong 77 276 patients (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 48 [16] years; 58 213 [75%] women) diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histologic type (64 625 cases), and 2371 deaths from thyroid cancer occurred during 1994-2013. Thyroid cancer incidence increased, on average, 3.6% per year (95% CI, 3.2%-3.9%) during 1974-2013 (from 4.56 per 100 000 person-years in 1974-1977 to 14.42 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013), primarily related to increases in papillary thyroid cancer (annual percent change, 4.4% [95% CI, 4.0%-4.7%]). Papillary thyroid cancer incidence increased for all SEER stages at diagnosis (4.6% per year for localized, 4.3% per year for regional, 2.4% per year for distant, 1.8% per year for unknown). During 1994-2013, incidence-based mortality increased 1.1% per year (95% CI, 0.6%-1.6%) (from 0.40 per 100 000 person-years in 1994-1997 to 0.46 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013) overall and 2.9% per year (95% CI, 1.1%-4.7%) for SEER distant stage papillary thyroid cancer.Conclusions and relevanceAmong patients in the United States diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, the overall incidence of thyroid cancer increased 3% annually, with increases in the incidence rate and thyroid cancer mortality rate for advanced-stage papillary thyroid cancer. These findings are consistent with a true increase in the occurrence of thyroid cancer in the United States.

Project description:BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. The effect of socioeconomic factors on cause-specific mortality and burden of CVD is rarely evaluated in low- and middle-income countries, especially in a rapidly changing society.MethodsOriginal data were derived from the vital registration system in Yangpu, a representative, population-stable district of urban Shanghai, China, during 1974-2015. Temporal trends for the mortality rates and burden of CVD during 1974-2015 were evaluated using Joinpoint Regression Software. The burden was evaluated using age-standardized person years of life loss per 100,000 persons (SPYLLs). Age-sex-specific CVD mortality rates were predicted by using age-period-cohort Poisson regression model.ResultsA total of 101,822 CVD death occurred during 1974-2015, accounting for 36.95% of total death. Hemorrhagic stroke, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke were the 3 leading causes of CVD death. The age-standardized CVD mortality decreased from 144.5/100,000 to 100.7/100,000 in the residents (average annual percentage change [AAPC] -1.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.7 to -?0.2), which was mainly contributed by women (AAPC -1.3, 95% CI -?2.0 to -?0.7), not by men. Hemorrhagic stroke, the major CVD death in the mid-aged population, decreased dramatically after 1991. The crude mortality of ischemic heart disease kept increasing but its age-adjusted mortality decreased continually after 1997. SPYLLs of CVD death increased from 1974 to 1986 (AAPC 2.1, 95% CI 0.4 to 3.8) and decreased after 1986 (AAPC 1.8, 95% CI -?2.3 to -?1.3). These changes were in concert with the implementation of policies including extended medical insurance coverage, pollution control, active prophylaxis of CVD including lifestyle promotion, and national health programs. The mortality of CVD increased in those born during 1937-1945, a period of the Japanese military occupation, and during 1958-1965, a period including the Chinese Famine. Sequelae of CVD and ischemic heart disease are predicted to be the leading causes of CVD death in 2029.ConclusionsExposure to serious malnutrition in early life might increase CVD mortality in later life. Improvements in medical services, pollution control, and lifestyle could decrease CVD death. New strategy is needed to prevent the aging-related CVD death and burden in the future.

Dataset Information

Cancer mortality trends in an industrial district of Shanghai, China, from 1974 to 2014, and projections to 2029.

Publications

Cancer mortality trends in an industrial district of Shanghai, China, from 1974 to 2014, and projections to 2029.

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