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Developing a Machine Learning System for Identification of Severe Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease from Electronic Medical Record Data.

ABSTRACT: Children of severe hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) often present with same clinical features as those of mild HFMD during the early stage, yet later deteriorate rapidly with a fulminant disease course. Our goal was to: (1) develop a machine learning system to automatically identify cases with high risk of severe HFMD at the time of admission; (2) compare the effectiveness of the new system with the existing risk scoring system. Data on 2,532 HFMD children admitted between March 2012 and July 2015, were collected retrospectively from a medical center in China. By applying a holdout strategy and a 10-fold cross validation method, we developed four models with the random forest algorithm using different variable sets. The prediction system HFMD-RF based on the model of 16 variables from both the structured and unstructured data, achieved 0.824 sensitivity, 0.931 specificity, 0.916 accuracy, and 0.916 area under the curve in the independent test set. Most remarkably, HFMD-RF offers significant gains with respect to the commonly used pediatric critical illness score in clinical practice. As all the selected risk factors can be easily obtained, HFMD-RF might prove to be useful for reductions in mortality and complications of severe HFMD.

SUBMITTER: Liu G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5703994 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveElectronic health records (EHR) offer medical and pharmacogenomics research unprecedented opportunities to identify and classify patients at risk. EHRs are collections of highly inter-dependent records that include biological, anatomical, physiological, and behavioral observations. They comprise a patient's clinical phenome, where each patient has thousands of date-stamped records distributed across many relational tables. Development of EHR computer-based phenotyping algorithms require time and medical insight from clinical experts, who most often can only review a small patient subset representative of the total EHR records, to identify phenotype features. In this research we evaluate whether relational machine learning (ML) using inductive logic programming (ILP) can contribute to addressing these issues as a viable approach for EHR-based phenotyping.MethodsTwo relational learning ILP approaches and three well-known WEKA (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis) implementations of non-relational approaches (PART, J48, and JRIP) were used to develop models for nine phenotypes. International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) coded EHR data were used to select training cohorts for the development of each phenotypic model. Accuracy, precision, recall, F-Measure, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) curve statistics were measured for each phenotypic model based on independent manually verified test cohorts. A two-sided binomial distribution test (sign test) compared the five ML approaches across phenotypes for statistical significance.ResultsWe developed an approach to automatically label training examples using ICD-9 diagnosis codes for the ML approaches being evaluated. Nine phenotypic models for each ML approach were evaluated, resulting in better overall model performance in AUROC using ILP when compared to PART (p=0.039), J48 (p=0.003) and JRIP (p=0.003).DiscussionILP has the potential to improve phenotyping by independently delivering clinically expert interpretable rules for phenotype definitions, or intuitive phenotypes to assist experts.ConclusionRelational learning using ILP offers a viable approach to EHR-driven phenotyping.

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Developing a Machine Learning System for Identification of Severe Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease from Electronic Medical Record Data.

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