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Smoking and subsequent human papillomavirus infection: a mediation analysis.


ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:Smoking is an established risk factor for a human papillomavirus (HPV) infection advancing to cervical precancer and cancer, but its role earlier in the natural history is less clear. Smoking is inversely associated with possessing HPV antibodies from a past infection suggesting that smoking may influence acquiring subsequent infections. METHODS:In a cohort of 1976 U.S. women, we evaluate whether reduced antibodies to HPV-16 is a mechanism for smoking's role on acquiring a subsequent HPV-16 infection, through the analytic technique of causal mediation analysis. We posit a causal model and estimate two counterfactually defined effects: a smoking impaired antibody-mediated indirect effect and a nonmediated direct effect representing all other potential mechanisms of smoking. RESULTS:Compared to never smokers, current smokers had increased odds of HPV-16 infection by the antibody-mediated indirect effect (odds ratio [OR] = 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11, 1.73); the estimated direct effect was very imprecise (OR = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.26-1.13). We observed a stronger estimated indirect effect among women who smoked at least half a pack of cigarettes daily (OR = 1.61, 95% CI, 1.27-2.15) than among women who smoked less than that threshold (OR = 1.09; 95% CI, 0.94-1.44). CONCLUSIONS:This is the first study to directly test the mechanism underlying smoking as an HPV cofactor. The results support current smoking as a risk factor earlier in the natural history of HPV and are consistent with the hypothesis that smoking increases the risk of a subsequent infection by reducing immunity.

SUBMITTER: Eldridge RC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5705255 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Smoking and subsequent human papillomavirus infection: a mediation analysis.

Eldridge Ronald C RC   Pawlita Michael M   Wilson Lauren L   Castle Philip E PE   Waterboer Tim T   Gravitt Patti E PE   Schiffman Mark M   Wentzensen Nicolas N  

Annals of epidemiology 20171017 11


<h4>Purpose</h4>Smoking is an established risk factor for a human papillomavirus (HPV) infection advancing to cervical precancer and cancer, but its role earlier in the natural history is less clear. Smoking is inversely associated with possessing HPV antibodies from a past infection suggesting that smoking may influence acquiring subsequent infections.<h4>Methods</h4>In a cohort of 1976 U.S. women, we evaluate whether reduced antibodies to HPV-16 is a mechanism for smoking's role on acquiring a  ...[more]

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