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Potential for broad-scale transmission of Ebola virus disease during the West Africa crisis: lessons for the Global Health security agenda.

ABSTRACT: The 2014-2016 Ebola crisis in West Africa had approximately eight times as many reported deaths as the sum of all previous Ebola outbreaks. The outbreak magnitude and occurrence of multiple Ebola cases in at least seven countries beyond Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, hinted at the possibility of broad-scale transmission of Ebola.Using a modeling tool developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the Ebola outbreak, we estimated the number of Ebola cases that might have occurred had the disease spread beyond the three countries in West Africa to cities in other countries at high risk for disease transmission (based on late 2014 air travel patterns). We estimated Ebola cases in three scenarios: a delayed response, a Liberia-like response, and a fast response scenario. Based on our estimates of the number of Ebola cases that could have occurred had Ebola spread to other countries beyond the West African foci, we emphasize the need for improved levels of preparedness and response to public health threats, which is the goal of the Global Health Security Agenda. Our estimates suggest that Ebola could have potentially spread widely beyond the West Africa foci, had local and international health workers and organizations not committed to a major response effort. Our results underscore the importance of rapid detection and initiation of an effective, organized response, and the challenges faced by countries with limited public health systems. Actionable lessons for strengthening local public health systems in countries at high risk of disease transmission include increasing health personnel, bolstering primary and critical healthcare facilities, developing public health infrastructure (e.g. laboratory capacity), and improving disease surveillance. With stronger local public health systems infectious disease outbreaks would still occur, but their rapid escalation would be considerably less likely, minimizing the impact of public health threats such as Ebola.The Ebola outbreak could have potentially spread to other countries, where limited public health surveillance and response capabilities may have resulted in additional foci. Health security requires robust local health systems that can rapidly detect and effectively respond to an infectious disease outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Undurraga EA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5710062 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential for broad-scale transmission of Ebola virus disease during the West Africa crisis: lessons for the Global Health security agenda.

Undurraga Eduardo A EA Carias Cristina C Meltzer Martin I MI Kahn Emily B EB

Infectious diseases of poverty 20171201 1

<h4>Background</h4>The 2014-2016 Ebola crisis in West Africa had approximately eight times as many reported deaths as the sum of all previous Ebola outbreaks. The outbreak magnitude and occurrence of multiple Ebola cases in at least seven countries beyond Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, hinted at the possibility of broad-scale transmission of Ebola.<h4>Main text</h4>Using a modeling tool developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the Ebola outbreak, we estimated the ...[more]

PMID: 29191243

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Project description:BackgroundThe ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved.Methods and findingsOver 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications).ConclusionsAchieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.

Project description:Due to the lack of Ebola outbreak early warning alert, preparedness, surveillance and response systems, the most deadly, complex and largest ever seen Ebola war has been devastating West African communities. The unparalleled Ebola tsunami has prompted interrogations into, and uncertainties about, the effectiveness and efficiency of national, regional and international community's illed- responses using conventional humanitarian control and containment approaches and methods. The late humanitarian and local non-government organisations emergency responses and challenges to curb transmission dynamics and stop the ongoing spread in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa have led to an unprecedented toll of 14,413 reported Ebola cases in eight countries since the outbreak began, with 5,177 reported deaths including 571 health-care workers and 325 died as 14 November 2014. These indications the need of further evaluation of monitoring as substantial proportion of infections outside the context of Ebola epicentres, Ebola health centres treatment and care, infection prevention and control quality assurance checks in these countries. At the same time, exhaustive efforts should target ensuring an sufficient supply of optimal personal protective equipment (PPE) to all Ebola treatment facilities, along with the provision of training and relevant guidelines to limit to the minimum possible level of risk. The continent hosts a big proportion of the world's wealth, yet its people live in abject poverty, with governments unable to feed and govern them effectively, and who are condemned to endure even darker moments with the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Institutionalisation of practical and operational non-conventional emergency response models efficient health systems, and tailored programmes can clearly support to prevent, control and eventually stamp out Ebola geo-distribution in addition to population mental health services that are requisite to address the massive range of the health, socio-psychological and economic consequences during and post Ebola associated crises. There is a critical need for a more pragmatic and robust scientific approach to transform and re-orient the huge natural and human resource potentials towards achieving universal coverage, the 2015-2030 Millennium Developing Goals (MDGs), sustainable growth and development in Africa.

Project description:BackgroundThe 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus disease highlighted the importance of overhauling and transforming healthcare systems in West Africa to improve the ability of individual countries to deal with infectious diseases. As part of this effort, in November 2016 the West African Health Organization (WAHO) began the process of institutionalizing the One Health (OH) approach to health security across the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The lack of clear metrics and evaluation frameworks to measure the progress of OH implementation in West Africa has been reported as a challenge. Therefore, this study sought to assess and explore whether the existing metrics of global health security frameworks can measure the successful implementation of OH activities, evaluate the progress made since 2016, and identify key areas for improvement in the region.MethodThe study employed predetermined keywords to select indicators from the International Health Regulations (IHR) Monitoring Frameworks, specifically the State Party Self-Assessment Annual Report (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation (JEE), deemed relevant to the OH approach. In addition, the COVID-19 performance index scores (severity and recovery) for June 2022 were extracted from the Global COVID-19 Index (GCI). The GCI Recovery Index evaluated the major recovery parameters reported daily to indicate how a country performed on the path to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic compared to other countries. National documents were also analyzed using categorical variables to assess the performance status of OH platforms across implementing countries. A quantitative analysis of these indicators was conducted and supplemented with qualitative data gathered through interviews with key stakeholders. Between March and April 2022, we conducted 18 key informant interviews with purposively selected representatives from regional governmental agencies and international multilateral agencies, including ECOWAS member states. Interviews were conducted online, transcribed, and analysed following the tenets of thematic analysis.ResultsOur quantitative analysis revealed no significant association between the implementation status of OH activities and any of the selected indicators from SPAR and JEE. The descriptive analysis of the JEE scores at the country level revealed that countries with existing OH platforms scored relatively higher on the selected JEE indicators than other countries in the pre-implementation stage. OH implementation status did not significantly affect COVID-19 recovery and severity indices. The qualitative findings with relevant stakeholders revealed noteworthy challenges related to insufficient human capacity, inadequate coordination, and a lack of government funding for the sustainability of OH initiatives. Nonetheless, countries in the ECOWAS region are making progress toward the integration of OH into their health security systems.ConclusionStandardized metrics were used to assess the implementation and efficacy of OH systems in the ECOWAS region. Current indicators for monitoring global health security frameworks lack specificity and fail to comprehensively capture essential OH components, particularly at the sub-national level. To ensure consistency and effectiveness across countries, OH implementation metrics that align with global frameworks such as IHR should be developed.

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Potential for broad-scale transmission of Ebola virus disease during the West Africa crisis: lessons for the Global Health security agenda.

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Potential for broad-scale transmission of Ebola virus disease during the West Africa crisis: lessons for the Global Health security agenda.

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