Dataset Information

Association of Coronary Artery Calcium Score vs Age With Cardiovascular Risk in Older Adults: An Analysis of Pooled Population-Based Studies.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Besides age, other discriminators of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk are needed in older adults.

Objectives

To examine the predictive ability of coronary artery calcium (CAC) score vs age for incident ASCVD and how risk prediction changes by adding CAC score and removing only age from prediction models.

Design, setting, and participants

We conducted an analysis of pooled US population-based studies, including the Framingham Heart Study, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and the Cardiovascular Health Study. Results were compared with 2 European cohorts, the Rotterdam Study and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study. Participants underwent CAC scoring between 1998 and 2006 using cardiac computed tomography. The participants included adults older than 60 years without known ASCVD at baseline.

Exposures

Coronary artery calcium scores.

Main outcomes and measures

Incident ASCVD events including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

Results

The study included 4778 participants from 3 US cohorts, with a mean age of 70.1 years; 2582 (54.0%) were women, and 2431 (50.9%) were nonwhite. Over 11 years of follow-up (44?152 person-years), 405 CHD and 228 stroke events occurred. Coronary artery calcium score (vs age) had a greater association with incident CHD (C statistic, 0.733 vs 0.690; C statistics difference, 0.043; 95% CI of difference, 0.009-0.075) and modestly improved prediction of incident stroke (C statistic, 0.695 vs 0.670; C statistics difference, 0.025; 95% CI of difference, -0.015 to 0.064). Adding CAC score to models including traditional cardiovascular risk factors, with only age being removed, provided improved discrimination for incident CHD (C statistic, 0.735 vs 0.703; C statistics difference, 0.032; 95% CI of difference, 0.002-0.062) but not for stroke. Coronary artery calcium score was more likely than age to provide higher category-free net reclassification improvement among participants who experienced an ASCVD event (0.390; 95% CI, 0.312-0.467 vs 0.08; 95% CI -0.001 to 0.181) and to result in more accurate reclassification of risk for ASCVD events among these individuals. The findings were similar in the 2 European cohorts (n?=?4990).

Conclusions and relevance

Coronary artery calcium may be an alternative marker besides age to better discriminate between lower and higher CHD risk in older adults. Whether CAC score can assist in guiding the decision to initiate statin treatment for primary prevention in older adults requires further investigation.

SUBMITTER: Yano Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5710171 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Association of Coronary Artery Calcium Score vs Age With Cardiovascular Risk in Older Adults: An Analysis of Pooled Population-Based Studies.

Yano Yuichiro Y O'Donnell Christopher J CJ Kuller Lewis L Kavousi Maryam M Erbel Raimund R Ning Hongyan H D'Agostino Ralph R Newman Anne B AB Nasir Khurram K Hofman Albert A Lehmann Nils N Dhana Klodian K Blankstein Ron R Hoffmann Udo U Möhlenkamp Stefan S Massaro Joseph M JM Mahabadi Amir-Abbas AA Lima Joao A C JAC Ikram M Arfan MA Jöckel Karl-Heinz KH Franco Oscar H OH Liu Kiang K Lloyd-Jones Donald D Greenland Philip P

JAMA cardiology 20170901 9

<h4>Importance</h4>Besides age, other discriminators of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk are needed in older adults.<h4>Objectives</h4>To examine the predictive ability of coronary artery calcium (CAC) score vs age for incident ASCVD and how risk prediction changes by adding CAC score and removing only age from prediction models.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>We conducted an analysis of pooled US population-based studies, including the Framingham Heart Study, the Mu ...[more]

PMID: 28746709

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundPrecision estimation of cardiovascular risk remains the cornerstone of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) prevention. While coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is the best available non-invasive quantitative modality to evaluate risk of ASCVD, it excludes risk related to prior myocardial infarction, cardiomyopathy, and arrhythmia which are implicated in ASCVD. The high-dimensional and inter-correlated nature of ECG data makes it a good candidate for analysis using machine learning techniques and may provide additional prognostic information not captured by CAC. In this study, we aimed to develop a quantitative ECG risk score (eRiS) to predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) alone, or when added to CAC. Further, we aimed to construct and validate a novel nomogram incorporating ECG, CAC and clinical factors for ASCVD.MethodsWe analyzed 5,864 patients with at least 1 cardiovascular risk factor who underwent CAC scoring and a standard ECG as part of the CLARIFY study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04075162). Events were defined as myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, stroke or death. A total of 649 ECG features, consisting of measurements such as amplitude and interval measurements from all deflections in the ECG waveform (53 per lead and 13 overall) were automatically extracted using a clinical software (GE Muse™ Cardiology Information System, GE Healthcare). The data was split into 4 training (Str) and internal validation (Sv) sets [Str (1): Sv (1): 50:50; Str (2): Sv (2): 60:40; Str (3): Sv (3): 70:30; Str (4): Sv (4): 80:20], and the results were compared across all the subsets. We used the ECG features derived from Str to develop eRiS. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-Cox (LASSO-Cox) regularization model was used for data dimension reduction, feature selection, and eRiS construction. A Cox-proportional hazards model was used to assess the benefit of using an eRiS alone (Mecg), CAC alone (Mcac) and a combination of eRiS and CAC (Mecg+cac) for MACE prediction. A nomogram (Mnom) was further constructed by integrating eRiS with CAC and demographics (age and sex). The primary endpoint of the study was the assessment of the performance of Mecg, Mcac, Mecg+cac and Mnom in predicting CV disease-free survival in ASCVD.FindingsOver a median follow-up of 14 months, 494 patients had MACE. The feature selection strategy preserved only about 18% of the features that were consistent across the various strata (Str). The Mecg model, comprising of eRiS alone was found to be significantly associated with MACE and had good discrimination of MACE (C-Index: 0.7, p = <2e-16). eRiS could predict time-to MACE (C-Index: 0.6, p = <2e-16 across all Sv). The Mecg+cac model was associated with MACE (C-index: 0.71). Model comparison showed that Mecg+cac was superior to Mecg (p = 1.8e-10) or Mcac (p < 2.2e-16) alone. The Mnom, comprising of eRiS, CAC, age and sex was associated with MACE (C-index 0.71). eRiS had the most significant contribution, followed by CAC score and other clinical variables. Further, Mnom was able to identify unique patient risk-groups based on eRiS, CAC and clinical variables.ConclusionThe use of ECG features in conjunction with CAC may allow for improved prognostication and identification of populations at risk. Future directions will involve prospective validation of the risk score and the nomogram across diverse populations with a heterogeneity of treatment effects.

Project description:PurposesCoronary artery calcium (CAC) score provides a quantification of atherosclerotic plaque within the coronary arteries. This study aimed to examine the prevalence and CAC score distribution and to evaluate the association of each CAC score classifications with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in a Thai clinical cohort.MethodsThis study was a retrospective observational cohort. We included patients aged above 35 years who underwent CAC score testing. The absolute and age-sex specific percentile classifications were categorized as 0, 1 to 10, 11 to 100, 101 to 400, and >400 and 0, <75th, 75th - 90th, and >90th, respectively. The endpoint was MACE, including cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, heart failure hospitalization, coronary artery revascularization procedure, and stroke. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios. The discriminative performance between classifications were compared using Harrell's C-statistics. The agreement was assessed via Cohen's Kappa.ResultsThis study included 440 patients, with approximately 70% of Thai patients exhibiting a CAC score. CAC score distributed higher in male than female and increased with age. Both CAC score classification demonstrated the acceptable predictive performance. However, fair agreement was observed between classifications (Cohen's kappa 0.51, 95%CI 0.42-0.59). Within the absolute classification, a higher CAC score was associated with increased hazard ratios for MACE across stratified age-sex-specific percentile levels. In contrast, the hazard ratios for MACE did not consistently rise with higher age-sex-specific percentile CAC score when stratified by absolute CAC score levels.ConclusionsBoth absolute and age-sex-specific percentile CAC score demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting MACE. However, the absolute CAC score classification may be more suitable for risk stratification within the Thai clinical cohort. Our findings offer supportive information that could inform future recommendations for CAC score testing criteria within national clinical practice guidelines.

Dataset Information

Association of Coronary Artery Calcium Score vs Age With Cardiovascular Risk in Older Adults: An Analysis of Pooled Population-Based Studies.

Importance

Objectives

Design, setting, and participants

Exposures

Main outcomes and measures

Results

Conclusions and relevance

Publications

Association of Coronary Artery Calcium Score vs Age With Cardiovascular Risk in Older Adults: An Analysis of Pooled Population-Based Studies.

Similar Datasets

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