Model-based risk assessment and public health analysis to prevent Lyme disease.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sharareh N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5717649 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Model-based risk assessment and public health analysis to prevent Lyme disease.
Sharareh Nasser N Sabounchi Nasim S NS Roome Amanda A Spathis Rita R Garruto Ralph M RM
Royal Society open science 20171115 11
The number of Lyme disease (LD) cases in the northeastern United States has been dramatically increasing with over 300 000 new cases each year. This is due to numerous factors interacting over time including low public awareness of LD, risk behaviours and clothing choices, ecological and climatic factors, an increase in rodents within ecologically fragmented peri-urban built environments and an increase in tick density and infectivity in such environments. We have used a system dynamics (SD) app ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe risk of contracting Lyme disease (LD) can vary spatially because of spatial heterogeneity in risk factors such as social-behavior and exposure to ecological risk factors. Integrating these risk factors to inform decision-making should therefore increase the effectiveness of mitigation interventions.ObjectivesThe objective of this study was to develop an integrated social-behavioral and ecological risk-mapping approach to identify priority areas for LD interventions.MethodsThe study was conducted in the Montérégie region of Southern Quebec, Canada, where LD is a newly endemic disease. Spatial variation in LD knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors in the population were measured using web survey data collected in 2012. These data were used as a proxy for the social-behavioral component of risk. Tick vector population densities were measured in the environment during field surveillance from 2007 to 2012 to provide an index of the ecological component of risk. Social-behavioral and ecological components of risk were combined with human population density to create integrated risk maps. Map predictions were validated by testing the association between high-risk areas and the current spatial distribution of human LD cases.ResultsSocial-behavioral and ecological components of LD risk had markedly different distributions within the study region, suggesting that both factors should be considered for locally adapted interventions. The occurrence of human LD cases in a municipality was positively associated with tick density (p<0.01) but was not significantly associated with social-behavioral risk.ConclusionThis study is an applied demonstration of how integrated social-behavioral and ecological risk maps can be created to assist decision-making. Social survey data are a valuable but underutilized source of information for understanding regional variation in LD exposure, and integrating this information into risk maps provides a novel approach for prioritizing and adapting interventions to the local characteristics of target populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1943.
| S-EPMC6071748 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPeople using the Internet to find information on health issues, such as specific diseases, usually start their search from a general search engine, for example, Google. Internet searches such as these may yield results and data of questionable quality and reliability. Health Library is a free-of-charge medical portal on the Internet providing medical information for the general public. Physician's Databases, an Internet evidence-based medicine source, provides medical information for health care professionals (HCPs) to support their clinical practice. Both databases are available throughout Finland, but the latter is used only by health professionals and pharmacies. Little is known about how the general public seeks medical information from medical sources on the Internet, how this behavior differs from HCPs' queries, and what causes possible differences in behavior.ObjectiveThe aim of our study was to evaluate how the general public's and HCPs' information-seeking trends from Internet medical databases differ seasonally and temporally. In addition, we aimed to evaluate whether the general public's information-seeking trends could be utilized for disease surveillance and whether media coverage could affect these seeking trends.MethodsLyme disease, serving as a well-defined disease model with distinct seasonal variation, was chosen as a case study. Two Internet medical databases, Health Library and Physician's Databases, were used. We compared the general public's article openings on Lyme disease from Health Library to HCPs' article openings on Lyme disease from Physician's Databases seasonally across Finland from 2011 to 2015. Additionally, media publications related to Lyme disease were searched from the largest and most popular media websites in Finland.ResultsBoth databases, Health Library and Physician's Databases, show visually similar patterns in temporal variations of article openings on Lyme disease in Finland from 2011 to 2015. However, Health Library openings show not only an increasing trend over time but also greater fluctuations, especially during peak opening seasons. Outside these seasons, publications in the media coincide with Health Library article openings only occasionally.ConclusionsLyme disease-related information-seeking behaviors between the general public and HCPs from Internet medical portals share similar temporal variations, which is consistent with the trend seen in epidemiological data. Therefore, the general public's article openings could be used as a supplementary source of information for disease surveillance. The fluctuations in article openings appeared stronger among the general public, thus, suggesting that different factors such as media coverage, affect the information-seeking behaviors of the public versus professionals. However, media coverage may also have an influence on HCPs. Not every publication was associated with an increase in openings, but the higher the media coverage by some publications, the higher the general public's access to Health Library.
| S-EPMC5696583 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the context of complex public health challenges led by interdependent changes such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and resistance to treatment, it is important to mobilize methods that guide us to generate innovative interventions in a context of uncertainty and unknown. Here, we mobilized the concept-knowledge (CK) design theory to identify innovative, cross-sectoral, and cross-disciplinary research and design programs that address the challenges posed by tick-borne Lyme disease in France, which is of growing importance in the French public health and healthcare systems. Within the CK methodological framework, we developed an iterative approach based on literature analysis, expert interviews, analysis of active French research projects, and work with CK experts to contribute to design "an action plan against Lyme disease." We produced a CK diagram that highlights innovative concepts that could be addressed in research projects. The outcome is discussed within four areas: (i) effectiveness; (ii) environmental sustainability in prevention actions; (iii) the promotion of constructive involvement of citizens in Lyme challenges; and (iv) the development of care protocols for chronic conditions with an unknown diagnosis. Altogether, our analysis questioned the health targets ranging from population to ecosystem, the citizen involvement, and the patient consideration. This means integrating social and ecological science, as well as the multidisciplinary medical patient journey, from the start. CK theory is a promising framework to assist public health professionals in designing programs for complex yet urgent contexts, where research and data collection are still not sufficient to provide clear guidance.
| S-EPMC9676681 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The murine model of Lyme disease provides a unique opportunity to study the localized host response to similar stimulus, B. burgdorferi, in the joints of mice destined to develop severe arthritis (C3H) or mild disease (C57BL/6). Pathways associated with the response to infection and the development of Lyme arthritis were identified by global gene expression patterns using oligonucleotide microarrays. A robust induction of IFN responsive genes was observed in severely arthritic C3H mice at one week of infection, which was absent from mildly arthritic C57BL/6 mice. In contrast, infected C57BL/6 mice displayed a novel expression profile characterized by genes involved in epidermal differentiation and wound repair, which were decreased in the joints of C3H mice. These expression patterns were associated with disease state rather than inherent differences between C3H and C57BL/6 mice, as C57BL/6-IL10-/- mice infected with B. burgdorferi develop more severe arthritis that C57BL/6 mice and displayed an early gene expression profile similar to C3H mice. Gene expression profiles at two and four weeks post infection revealed a common response of all strains that was likely to be important for the host defense to B. burgdorferi and mediated by NF-kB-dependent signaling. The gene expression profiles identified in this study add to the current understanding of the host response to B. burgdorferi and identify two novel pathways that may be involved in regulating the severity of Lyme arthritis. Experiment Overall Design: Expression profiling of ankle tissues of C3H, C57BL/6, and C57BL/6-IL10-/- mice infected with B. burgdorfer (0, 1, 2, and 4 weeks post-infection)
2008-06-14 | E-GEOD-6055 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:BackgroundMisinformation about Lyme disease and other tick-transmitted pathogens circulates frequently on the internet and can compete with, or even overshadow, science-based guidance on tick-borne disease (TBD) prevention.ObjectiveWe surveyed internet users connected to academic tick-related resources to identify trusted sources of Lyme disease prevention information, explore confidence in tick bite prevention information, and examine associations of these responses with answers to commonly disputed issues.MethodsThe survey was conducted through social media and website pages for Western Connecticut State University Tickborne Disease Prevention Laboratory and the University of Rhode Island TickEncounter Resource Center.ResultsRespondents (N=1190) were predominantly female (903/1190, 76.3%), middle-aged (574/1182, 48.6%), and resided in New England states (663/1190, 55.7%). In total 984 of 1186 (83%) respondents identified conventional experts (eg, the Centers for Disease Control [CDC] or other government health agencies, physicians who follow Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines for Lyme disease treatment guidelines, and academics) as trustworthy TBD prevention resources. However, nearly one-fourth of respondents would first consult personal contacts and web-based communities regarding prevention information before consulting conventional expert sources. The opinions of public health experts and physicians were rated among the top motivators underlying personal prevention decisions; yet, more than 50% of participants revealed distrustful attitudes toward, or were uncertain about, CDC-supported statements related to time to transmission of Lyme disease (708/1190, 59.5%), the safety of diethyltoluamide-based repellents for children (604/1183, 51.1%), and recommended use of antibiotic prophylaxis (773/1181, 65.4%). Multimodal regression models revealed that participants from high-Lyme-disease-incidence states were more likely to first seek TBD prevention information from personal networks and nontraditional sources before approaching conventional sources of TBD prevention information. We found that those reporting high rates of social media usage were more than twice as likely to first seek traditional expert sources of prevention information but were overall more likely to reject CDC-promoted Lyme disease information, in particular the established time to transmission of Lyme disease bacteria. Models also predicted that those participants who disagreed with the conventional scientific view on the antibiotic prophylaxis prevention statement were less likely to be confident in their ability to protect themselves from a tick bite. Overall, uncertainty in one's ability to protect oneself against tick bites was strongly associated with uncertainty about beliefs in CDC-promoted TBD prevention information. Self-reported trust in experts and frequency of social media use suggest that these platforms may provide opportunities to engage directly with the public about TBD prevention practices.ConclusionsUsing strategies to improve public trust and provide information where the public engages on social media may improve prevention communication and adoption of best practices.
| S-EPMC10413241 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Lyme disease (LD) is an infection transferred to humans through bites from infected ticks. Surveillance indicates that the number of LD cases is increasing in the UK, therefore, improved knowledge about reducing transmission from ticks to humans is needed. Eighteen electronic databases were searched and additional web-based searching was conducted, to locate empirical research, published from 2002 onwards. Sixteen studies that evaluated five types of prevention intervention were included: personal protection (n = 4), domestic strategies (landscape modification and chemical pest control) (n = 3), education (n = 6), vaccination (n = 3), and deer-reduction programmes (n = 2). In general the quality of evidence was low. Results suggest that personal protection strategies, including the use of tick repellents and wearing of protective clothes, can prevent tick bites and reduce the incidence of LD among adults. Educational interventions were generally successful for improving adults' knowledge, behavioural beliefs (e.g., self-efficacy for performing tick checks) and preventative behaviour, but for children, the findings were mixed. For adults and children, knowledge changes did not typically translate into a lower incidence of LD. Whilst evidence on vaccination against LD is promising, too few studies were available to reach robust conclusions. There was no evidence of effectiveness for deer culling, and the evidence was inconclusive for applying acaricide (tick poison) to deer's ears and heads. Low-quality evidence suggests that personal protective strategies, that limit exposure to ticks, should continue to be recommended, as should education to encourage the adoption of personal protective strategies; further investigation of education interventions for children, vaccination and deer programmes is needed.
| S-EPMC6240635 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about risk factors for early (e.g., erythema migrans) and disseminated Lyme disease manifestations, such as arthritis, neurological complications, and carditis. No study has used both diagnoses and free text to classify Lyme disease by disease stage and manifestation.MethodsWe identified Lyme disease cases in 2012-2016 in the electronic health record (EHR) of a large, integrated health system in Pennsylvania. We developed a rule-based text-matching algorithm using regular expressions to extract clinical data from free text. Lyme disease cases were then classified by stage and manifestation using data from both diagnoses and free text. Among cases classified by stage, we evaluated individual, community, and health care variables as predictors of disseminated stage (vs. early) disease using Poisson regression models with robust errors. Final models adjusted for sociodemographic factors, receipt of Medical Assistance (i.e., Medicaid, a proxy for low socioeconomic status), primary care contact, setting of diagnosis, season of diagnosis, and urban/rural status.ResultsAmong 7310 cases of Lyme disease, we classified 62% by stage. Overall, 23% were classified using both diagnoses and text, 26% were classified using diagnoses only, and 13% were classified using text only. Among the staged diagnoses (n = 4530), 30% were disseminated stage (762 arthritis, 426 neurological manifestations, 76 carditis, 95 secondary erythema migrans, and 76 other manifestations). In adjusted models, we found that persons on Medical Assistance at least 50% of time under observation, compared to never users, had a higher risk (risk ratio [95% confidence interval]) of disseminated Lyme disease (1.20 [1.05, 1.37]). Primary care contact (0.59 [0.54, 0.64]) and diagnosis in the urgent care (0.22 [0.17, 0.29]), compared to the outpatient setting, were associated with lower risk of disseminated Lyme disease.ConclusionsThe associations between insurance payor, primary care status, and diagnostic setting with disseminated Lyme disease suggest that lower socioeconomic status and less health care access could be linked with disseminated stage Lyme disease. Intervening on these factors could reduce the individual and health care burden of disseminated Lyme disease. Our findings demonstrate the value of both diagnostic and narrative text data to identify Lyme disease manifestations in the EHR.
| S-EPMC8686252 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNon-communicable diseases (NCDs) are increasing in prevalence in low-income countries including Uganda. The Uganda Ministry of Health has prioritized NCD prevention, early diagnosis, and management. However, research on the capacity of public sector health facilities to address NCDs is limited.MethodsWe developed a survey guided by the literature and the standards of the World Health Organization Pacakage of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Interventions for Primary Health Care in Low-Resource Settings. We used this tool to conduct a needs assessment in 53 higher-level public sector facilities throughout Uganda, including all Regional Referral Hospitals (RRH) and a purposive sample of General Hospitals (GH) and Health Centre IVs (HCIV), to: (1) assess their capacity to detect and manage NCDs; (2) describe provider knowledge and practices regarding the management of NCDs; and (3) identify areas in need of focused improvement. We collected data on human resources, equipment, NCD screening and management, medicines, and laboratory tests. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize our findings.ResultsWe identified significant resource gaps at all sampled facilities. All facilities reported deficiencies in NCD screening and management services. Less than half of all RRH and GH had an automated blood pressure machine. The only laboratory test uniformly available at all surveyed facilities was random blood glucose. Sub-specialty NCD clinics were available in some facilities with the most common type being a diabetes clinic present at eleven (85%) RRHs. These facilities offered enhanced services to patients with diabetes. Surveyed facilities had limited use of NCD patient registries and NCD management guidelines. Most facilities (46% RRH, 23% GH, 7% HCIV) did not track patients with NCDs by using registries and only 4 (31%) RRHs, 4 (15%) GHs, and 1 (7%) HCIVs had access to diabetes management guidelines.ConclusionsDespite inter-facility variability, none of the facilities in our study met the WHO-PEN standards for essential tools and medicines to implement effective NCD interventions. In Uganda, improvements in the allocation of human resources and essential medicines and technologies, coupled with uptake in the use of quality assurance modalities are desperately needed in order to adequately address the rapidly growing NCD burden.
| S-EPMC6080524 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: Recent years have seen increased concern about direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing (i.e., the sale and use of genetic tests without involving a health care provider). Numerous professional organizations have developed policies in this area. However, little systematic evidence exists to inform public policy about these tests. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search to identify genetic tests that are sold DTC without involving a health care provider. We evaluated the practices of companies offering DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis using criteria from multiple sources and a minimal set of key practices. RESULTS: We identified 84 instances of currently available health-related DTC genetic tests sold on 27 Web sites; the most common were for pharmacogenomics (12), risk of thrombosis (10), and nutrigenomics (10). For the DTC genetic tests for risk of thrombosis, we found low adherence to recommendations. Online information was frequently incomplete and had low agreement with professional recommendations. CONCLUSION: Our findings document the rapid growth in the availability of health-related DTC genetic tests and highlight the need to improve the delivery of DTC genetic tests. A major implication of this study is the need for the scientific and medical community to develop consistent recommendations to increase their impact.
| S-EPMC2790792 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although the impact of tobacco consumption on the occurrence of lung cancer is well-established, risk estimation could be improved by risk prediction models that consider various smoking habits, such as quantity, duration, and time since quitting. We constructed a risk prediction model using a population of 59 161 individuals from the Japan Public Health Center (JPHC) Study Cohort II. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact of age, gender, and smoking-related factors (cumulative smoking intensity measured in pack-years, age at initiation, and time since cessation). Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates were calculated with consideration of the competing risk of death from other causes. Finally, the model was externally validated using 47 501 individuals from JPHC Study Cohort I. A total of 1210 cases of lung cancer occurred during 986 408 person-years of follow-up. We found a dose-dependent effect of tobacco consumption with hazard ratios for current smokers ranging from 3.78 (2.00-7.16) for cumulative consumption ?15 pack-years to 15.80 (9.67-25.79) for >75 pack-years. Risk decreased with time since cessation. Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates ranged from 0.04% to 11.14% in men and 0.07% to 6.55% in women. The model showed good predictive performance regarding discrimination (cross-validated c-index = 0.793) and calibration (cross-validated ?2 = 6.60; P-value = .58). The model still showed good discrimination in the external validation population (c-index = 0.772). In conclusion, we developed a prediction model to estimate the probability of developing lung cancer based on age, gender, and tobacco consumption. This model appears useful in encouraging high-risk individuals to quit smoking and undergo increased surveillance.
| S-EPMC5834815 | biostudies-other