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Effects of health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Since 2010, England has experienced relative constraints in public expenditure on healthcare (PEH) and social care (PES). We sought to determine whether these constraints have affected mortality rates. METHODS:We collected data on health and social care resources and finances for England from 2001 to 2014. Time trend analyses were conducted to compare the actual mortality rates in 2011-2014 with the counterfactual rates expected based on trends before spending constraints. Fixed-effects regression analyses were conducted using annual data on PES and PEH with mortality as the outcome, with further adjustments for macroeconomic factors and resources. Analyses were stratified by age group, place of death and lower-tier local authority (n=325). Mortality rates to 2020 were projected based on recent trends. RESULTS:Spending constraints between 2010 and 2014 were associated with an estimated 45?368 (95% CI 34?530 to 56 206) higher than expected number of deaths compared with pre-2010 trends. Deaths in those aged ?60?and in care homes accounted for the majority. PES was more strongly linked with care home and home mortality than PEH, with each £10 per capita decline in real PES associated with an increase of 5.10 (3.65-6.54) (p<0.001) care home deaths per 100?000. These associations persisted in lag analyses and after adjustment for macroeconomic factors. Furthermore, we found that changes in real PES per capita may be linked to mortality mostly via changes in nurse numbers. Projections to 2020 based on 2009-2014 trend was cumulatively linked to an estimated 152?141 (95% CI 134?597 and 169 685) additional deaths. CONCLUSIONS:Spending constraints, especially PES, are associated with a substantial mortality gap. We suggest that spending should be targeted on improving care delivered in care homes and at home; and maintaining or increasing nurse numbers.

SUBMITTER: Watkins J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5719267 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis.

Watkins Johnathan J Wulaningsih Wahyu W Da Zhou Charlie C Marshall Dominic C DC Sylianteng Guia D C GDC Dela Rosa Phyllis G PG Miguel Viveka A VA Raine Rosalind R King Lawrence P LP Maruthappu Mahiben M

BMJ open 20171115 11

<h4>Objective</h4>Since 2010, England has experienced relative constraints in public expenditure on healthcare (PEH) and social care (PES). We sought to determine whether these constraints have affected mortality rates.<h4>Methods</h4>We collected data on health and social care resources and finances for England from 2001 to 2014. Time trend analyses were conducted to compare the actual mortality rates in 2011-2014 with the counterfactual rates expected based on trends before spending constraint ...[more]

PMID: 29141897

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Project description:BackgroundAfter 2008 global economic crisis, Italian governments progressively reduced public healthcare financing. Describing the time trend of health outcomes and health expenditure may be helpful for policy makers during the resources' allocation decision making process. The aim of this paper is to analyze the trend of mortality and health spending in Italy and to investigate their correlation in consideration of the funding constraints experienced by the Italian national health system (SSN).MethodsWe conducted a 20-year time-series study. Secondary data has been extracted from a national, institution based and publicly accessible retrospective database periodically released by the Italian Institute of Statistics. Age standardized all-cause mortality rate (MR) and health spending (Directly Provided Services - DPS, Agreed-Upon Services - TAUS, and private expenditure) were reviewed. Time trend analysis (1995-2014) through OLS and Multilayer Feed-forward Neural Networks (MFNN) models to forecast mortality and spending trend was performed. The association between healthcare expenditure and MR was analyzed through a fixed effect regression model. We then repeated MFNN time trend forecasting analyses on mortality by adding the spending item resulted significantly related with MR in the fixed effect analyses.ResultsDPS and TAUS decreased since 2011. There was a mismatch in mortality rates between real and predicted values. DPS resulted significantly associated to mortality (p?<?0.05). In repeated mortality forecasting analysis, predicted MR was found to be lower when considering the pre-constraints health spending trend.ConclusionsBetween 2011 and 2014, Italian public health spending items showed a reduction when compared to prior years. Spending on services directly provided free of charge appears to be the financial driving force of the Italian public health system. The overall mortality was found to be higher than the predicted trend and this scenario may be partially attributable to the healthcare funding constraints experienced by the SSN.

Project description:BackgroundLocal government provides Cultural, Environmental, and Planning (CEP) services, such as parks, libraries, and waste collection, that are vital for promoting health and wellbeing. There have been significant changes to the funding of these services over the past decade, most notably due to the UK government's austerity programme. These changes have not affected all places equally. To understand potential impacts on health inequalities, we investigated geographical patterning of recent CEP spending trends.MethodsWe conducted a time trend analysis using routinely available data on local government expenditure. We used generalised estimating equations to determine how expenditure trends varied across 378 local authorities (LAs) in Great Britain between 2009/10 and 2018/19 on the basis of country, deprivation, rurality, and local government structure. We investigated the gross expenditure per capita on CEP services, and the CEP expenditure as a proportion of total local authority budgets. We present the estimated annual percentage change in these spend measures.ResultsExpenditure per capita for CEP services reduced by 36% between 2009/10 and 2018/19. In England, the reduction in per capita spending was steepest in the most deprived quintile of areas, falling by 7.5% [95% CI: 6.0, 8.9] per year, compared to 4.5% [95% CI: 3.3, 5.6] per year in the least deprived quintile. Budget cuts in Scotland and Wales have been more equitable, with similar trends in the most and least deprived areas. Welsh LAs have reduced the proportion of total LA budget spent on CEP services the most (-4.0% per year, 95% CI: -5.0 to -2.9), followed by Scotland (-3.0% per year, 95% CI: -4.2 to -1.7) then England (-1.4% per year, 95% CI: -2.2 to -0.6). In England, rural and unitary LAs reduced their share of spending allocated to CEP more than urban and two-tier structured LAs, respectively.ConclusionFunding for cultural, environmental and planning services provided by local government in the UK has been cut dramatically over the last decade, with clear geographical inequalities. Local areas worst affected have been those with a higher baseline level of deprivation, those with a single-tier local government structure, and English rural local authorities. The inequalities in cuts to these services risk widening geographical inequalities in health and wellbeing.

Project description:ObjectivesReform of England's social care system is repeatedly discussed in the context of increasing demand, rising costs and austere policies that have decreased service provision. This study investigates the association between unpaid carers' subjective well-being and local government spending on adult social care (ASC).Setting and participantsOur sample consists of 110 188 observations on 29 174 adults in England from the 2004-2007 British Household Panel Survey and the 2009-2018 UK Household Longitudinal Study. The data on local authorities' spending on ASC where participants live is derived from the publications Personal Social Care Expenditure and Unit Costs (2004-2016); and ASC Activity and Finance Report England (2016-2018).Outcome measuresSubjective well-being is measured by the 12-item version of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and 12-item version of the Mental Component Summary (MCS-12). We applied fixed-effects linear models to investigate the moderating effect of ASC spending on the association between subjective well-being and caring, controlling for a range of socioeconomic and demographic variables.ResultsCarers have a lower level of subjective well-being compared with non-carers, evident in their higher average GHQ-12 Likert score (β=2.7277 95% CI 0.2547 to 5.2008). Differences in the subjective well-being of carers and non-carers decrease with local government spending on ASC. Subjective well-being for carers was at a similar level to that of non-carers in high ASC spending local authorities (GHQ-12: -0.0123 95% CI -0.2185 to 0.1938, MCS-12: 0.0347 95% CI -0.3403 to 0.4098) and lower in other areas (GHQ-12: 0.1893 95% CI 0.0680 to 0.3107, MCS-12: -0.2906 95% CI -0.5107 to -0.0705). The moderating effect of ASC spending is found among people who care for 35+ hours per week.ConclusionGovernment spending on ASC protects unpaid carers' well-being, and people providing more than 35 weekly hours of unpaid care are more likely to benefit from the current social care system.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Aligned with the international call for universal coverage of affordable and quality health care, the government of Tajikistan is undertaking reforms of its health system aiming amongst others at reducing the out-of-pocket expenditures (OPE) of patients seeking care. Household surveys were conducted in 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2011 to explore the scale and determinants of OPE of users in four district of Tajikistan, where health care is legally free of charge at the primary level. METHODS: Using the data from four cross-sectional household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011, time trends in OPE for consultation fees, drugs and transport costs of adult users of family medicine services were analysed. To investigate differences along the economic status, an asset index was constructed using principal component analysis. RESULTS: Adjusted for inflation, OPE for primary care have substantially increased in the period 2005 to 2011. While the proportion of patients reporting the payment of informal consultation fees to providers and their amount were constant over time, the proportion of patients reporting expenditures for drugs has increased, and the median amounts have doubled from 5.3 US$ to 10.7 US$. Thus, the expenditures on medicine represent the biggest financial burden for patients accessing a primary care facility. Regression models showed that in 2011 patients from the most remote district with spread-out villages reported significant higher expenditures on medicine. Besides the steady increase in the median amount for OPE, the proportion of patients reporting making an informal payment to their care provider showed great variations across district of residence (between 20% and 73%) and economic status (between 33% among the 'worst-off' group and 68% among the 'better-off' group). CONCLUSIONS: In a context of limited governmental funds allocated to health and financing reforms aiming to improve financial access to primary care, the present paper indicates that in Tajikistan OPE - especially in relation to expenditures for drugs - have increased over time, and vary substantially across geographical areas and economic status. The fact that better-off households report disbursing more and in higher proportions hints towards a discrimination along the capacity to pay from providers. Increased public investments in the health sector, incentives for family doctors to provide PHC services free of charge and a strengthened drug control and supply system are necessary strategies to improve access of patients to services.

Project description:BackgroundThe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services launched the 4-year Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative (CPC Classic) in 2012 and its 5-year successor, CPC Plus (CPC+), in 2017 to test whether improving primary care delivery in five areas-and providing practices with financial and technical support-reduced spending and improved quality. This is the first study to examine long-term effects of a primary care practice transformation model.ObjectiveTo test whether long-term primary care transformation-the 4-year CPC Classic and the first 2 years of its successor, CPC+-reduced hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, and spending over 6 years.DesignWe used a difference-in-differences analysis to compare outcomes for beneficiaries attributed to CPC Classic practices with outcomes for beneficiaries attributed to comparison practices during the year before and 6 years after CPC Classic began.ParticipantsThe study involved 565,674 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries attributed to 502 CPC Classic practices and 1,165,284 beneficiaries attributed to 908 comparison practices, with similar beneficiary-, practice-, and market-level characteristics as the CPC Classic practices.InterventionsThe interventions required primary care practices to improve 5 care areas and supported their transformation with substantially enhanced payment, data feedback, and learning support and, for CPC+, added health information technology support.Main measuresHospitalizations (all-cause), ED visits (outpatient and total), and Medicare Part A and B expenditures.Key resultsRelative to comparison practices, beneficiaries in intervention practices experienced slower growth in hospitalizations-3.1% less in year 5 and 3.5% less in year 6 (P < 0.01) and roughly 2% (P < 0.1) slower growth each year in total ED visits during years 3 through 6. Medicare Part A and B expenditures (excluding care management fees) did not change appreciably.ConclusionsThe emergence of favorable effects on hospitalizations in years 5 and 6 suggests primary care transformation takes time to translate into lower hospitalizations. Longer tests of models are needed.

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Effects of health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis.

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Effects of health and social care spending constraints on mortality in England: a time trend analysis.

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