International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded obesity predicts risk of incident osteoporotic fracture.
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ABSTRACT: International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes have been used to ascertain individuals who are obese. There has been limited research about the predictive value of ICD-coded obesity for major chronic conditions at the population level. We tested the utility of ICD-coded obesity versus measured obesity for predicting incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), after adjusting for covariates (i.e., age and sex). In this historical cohort study (2001-2015), we selected 61,854 individuals aged 50 years and older from the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Database, Canada. Body mass index (BMI) ?30 kg/m2 was used to define measured obesity. Hospital and physician ICD codes were used to ascertain ICD-coded obesity and incident MOF. Average cohort age was 66.3 years and 90.3% were female. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value for ICD-coded obesity using measured obesity as the reference were 0.11 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10, 0.11), 0.99 (95% CI: 0.99, 0.99) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77, 0.81), respectively. ICD-coded obesity (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.83; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.99) and measured obesity (adjusted HR 0.83; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.88) were associated with decreased MOF risk. Although the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) estimates for incident MOF were not significantly different for ICD-coded obesity versus measured obesity (0.648 for ICD-coded obesity versus 0.650 for measured obesity; P = 0.056 for AUROC difference), the category-free net reclassification index for ICD-coded obesity versus measured obesity was -0.08 (95% CI: -0.11, -0.06) for predicting incident MOF. ICD-coded obesity predicted incident MOF, though it had low sensitivity and reclassified MOF risk slightly less well than measured obesity.
SUBMITTER: Yang S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5720696 | biostudies-literature | 2017
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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