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Understanding predation risk and individual variation in risk avoidance for threatened boreal caribou.

ABSTRACT: Predation risk is a driver of species' distributions. Animals can increase risk avoidance in response to fluctuations in predation risk, but questions remain regarding individual variability and the capacity to respond to changes in spatial risk across human-altered landscapes. In northeast British Columbia, Canada, boreal caribou populations declined as roads and seismic lines have increased, which are theorized to increase gray wolf predation. Our goal was to model risk and to evaluate individual variability and the development of risk perception by examining individual risk avoidance in response to reproductive status and age. We used locations from collared caribou and wolves to identify landscape features associated with the risk of a potential wolf-caribou encounter and risk of being killed given an encounter. We built resource selection functions to estimate individual responses to risk. We used general linear regressions to evaluate individual risk and linear feature avoidance as a function of age and reproductive status (calf or no calf). Linear features increased the risk of encounter. Older caribou and caribou with calves demonstrated stronger avoidance of the risk of encounter and roads, but weaker avoidance in late summer to the risk of being killed relative to younger and calf-less individuals. Mechanisms explaining the inverse relationships between the risk of encounter and risk of being killed are uncertain, but it is conceivable that caribou learn to avoid the risk of encounter and roads. Responses by females with vulnerable calves to the risk of encounter and risk of being killed might be explained by a trade-off between these two risk types and a prioritization on the risk of encounter. Despite the capacity to alter their responses to risk, the global decline in Rangifer populations (caribou and wild reindeer) suggests these behaviors are insufficient to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances.

SUBMITTER: Mumma MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5723594 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are threatened in Canada, with population and distribution declines evident in most regions of the country. Causes of declines are linked to landscape change from forest fires and human development, notably forestry oil and gas activities, which result in caribou habitat loss and affect ecosystem food webs. The Federal Species at Risk Act requires effective protection and restoration of caribou habitat, with actions to increase caribou survival. These requirements call for effective monitoring of caribou population trends to gauge success. Many woodland caribou populations are nearly impossible to count using traditional aerial survey methods, but demographic-based monitoring approaches can be used to estimate population trends based on population modeling of vital rates from marked animals. Monitoring programs have used a well-known simple population model (the Recruitment-Mortality [R/M] equation) to estimate demographic rates for woodland caribou, but have faced challenges in managing large data streams and providing transparency in the demographic estimation process. We present a stand-alone statistical software application using open-source software to permit efficient, transparent, and replicable demographic estimation for woodland caribou populations. We developed an easy-to-use, interactive web-based application for the R/M population model that uses a Bayesian estimation approach and provides the user flexibility in choice of prior distributions and other output features. We illustrate the web-application to the A la Pêche Southern Mountain (Central Group) woodland caribou population in west-central Alberta, Canada, during 1998-2017. Our estimates of population demographics are consistent with previous research on this population and highlight the utility of the application in assessing caribou population responses to species recovery actions. We provide example data, computer code, the web-based application package, and a user manual to guide installation and use. We also review underlying assumptions and challenges of population monitoring in this case study. We expect our software will contribute to efficient monitoring of woodland caribou and help in the assessment of recovery actions for this species. © 2019 The Authors. Wildlife Society Bulletin Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Project description:Isolation by distance (IBD) is a natural pattern not readily incorporated into theoretical models nor traditional metrics for differentiating populations, although clinal genetic differentiation can be characteristic of many wildlife species. Landscape features can also drive population structure additive to baseline IBD resulting in differentiation through isolation-by-resistance (IBR). We assessed the population genetic structure of boreal caribou across western Canada using nonspatial (STRUCTURE) and spatial (MEMGENE) clustering methods and investigated the relative contribution of IBD and IBR on genetic variation of 1,221 boreal caribou multilocus genotypes across western Canada. We further introduced a novel approach to compare the partitioning of individuals into management units (MU) and assessed levels of genetic connectivity under different MU scenarios. STRUCTURE delineated five genetic clusters while MEMGENE identified finer-scale differentiation across the study area. IBD was significant and did not differ for males and females both across and among detected genetic clusters. MEMGENE landscape analysis further quantified the proportion of genetic variation contributed by IBD and IBR patterns, allowing for the relative importance of spatial drivers, including roads, water bodies, and wildfires, to be assessed and incorporated into the characterization of population structure for the delineation of MUs. Local population units, as currently delineated in the boreal caribou recovery strategy, do not capture the genetic variation and connectivity of the ecotype across the study area. Here, we provide the tools to assess fine-scale spatial patterns of genetic variation, partition drivers of genetic variation, and evaluate the best management options for maintaining genetic connectivity. Our approach is highly relevant to vagile wildlife species that are of management and conservation concern and demonstrate varying degrees of IBD and IBR with clinal spatial genetic structure that challenges the delineation of discrete population boundaries.

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Understanding predation risk and individual variation in risk avoidance for threatened boreal caribou.

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