Dataset Information

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles.

ABSTRACT: During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

SUBMITTER: Burls NJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5724249 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles.

Burls Natalie J NJ Fedorov Alexey V AV

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20171120 49

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO<sub>2</sub> rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather ...[more]

PMID: 29158397

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Project description:Species diversity is affected by processes operating at multiple spatial scales, although the most relevant scales that contribute to compositional variation and the temporal shifts of the involved mechanisms remain poorly explored. We studied spatial patterns of phytoplankton, rotifers and microcrustacean diversity across scales in a river floodplain system of the Danube in Austria under contrasting hydrological conditions (post-flood versus low water level).The species turnover between water sections (β2) and between wetlands (β3) was the major components of regional diversity for all studied groups, with species turnover between habitats (β1) as a minor contributor. β1 diversity and β2 diversity were lower than expected by chance in most cases, suggesting that communities are more homogeneous than expected at these scales. β3 diversity was higher than expected by chance in many cases, indicating more distinct communities at the wetland level. Patterns were highly similar under different hydrological conditions, indicating no major immediate effect of flood events.Local environmental and spatial factors were similarly important in structuring phytoplankton, rotifer and microcrustacean communities in both hydrological conditions. Relevant environmental factors were spatially structured in post-flood conditions especially between sections, suggesting flood-driven homogenisation within the wetlands. Under low water level, spatial structuring of environment decreased and pure environmental factors gained relevance for phytoplankton and rotifers.Our results suggest that although β2 diversity between water sections is a major component of regional diversity, long-term spatial processes responding to connectivity across the wetland structure phytoplankton, rotifer and microcrustacean communities. Aquatic sections within the limited spatial extent of the remaining floodplain areas appear more homogeneous than expected probably due to flood recurrence over the years.These results highlight that adequate planning of restoration and conservation strategies of floodplain wetlands should consider environmental heterogeneity together with long-term spatial processes.

Project description:Background Strawberries are a common crop whose yield success depends on the availability of pollinators. Invasive alien plants, such as Impatiens glandulifera and I. parviflora, are also attractive for bees and hoverflies, respectively, and occur in close proximity to strawberry cultivation areas. The aim of the study was to test whether alien plants may decrease pollination of strawberry cultivation. However, even if the pollinators are abundant, efficiency of their pollination may decrease as a result of revisits of flowers that were already probed. It is addressed by pollinators by scent marking. Moreover, such revisits can be determined by nectar replenishment, which may occur rapidly in nectar-rich flowers. We studied revisits to I. glandulifera by bumblebees and defined the factors that influence the probability of revisits (air temperature; pollinator species; family caste and size; flower area; sun radiation; and time of day). Results We found that the two alien species decreased the number of pollinators visiting strawberries. Apoidea, Bombini and Syrphidae significantly decreased on Fragaria × ananassa when alien Impatiens were present. We also revealed the influence of increasing air temperature on bumblebee foraging, which was particularly significant for female workers. At very high temperatures (> 37°C), bumblebee males revisited probed flowers less often than female workers. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that in experimental conditions attractive alien species decrease pollination of strawberries, which may negatively affect production of this crop. Although the results have not been verified in real-life strawberry fields yet, we recommend that alien plant species that share the same pollinators and occur in close proximity of strawberries are controlled. Moreover, we found that revisits of probed flowers may weaken feeding efficiency of bumblebees. If revisits are not induced by nectar replenishment, then global warming may pose a serious threat to the survival of colonies, which may have consequences also for the plants that attract them, e.g., for strawberries. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12870-021-03282-1.

Dataset Information

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles.

Publications

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles.

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