Dataset Information

Seasonal pattern of influenza activity in a subtropical city, China, 2010-2015.

ABSTRACT: Influenza seasonality study is critical for policy-makers to choose an optimal time for influenza vaccination campaign, especially for subtropical regions where influenza seasonality and periodicity are unclear. In this study, we explored the seasonality and periodicity of influenza in Hefei, China during 2010 to 2015 using five proxies originated from three data sources of clinical surveillance of influenza-like illness (ILI), laboratory surveillance of influenza and death registration of pneumonia and influenza. We combined both wavelets analysis and de-linear-trend regression with Fourier harmonic terms to estimate seasonal characteristics of epidemic phase, peak time, amplitude, ratio of dominant seasonality. We found both annual cycle of influenza epidemics peaking in December-February and semi-annual cycle peaking in December-February and June-July in subtropical city Hefei, China. Compared to proxies developed by ILI and death registration data separately, influenza proxies incorporated laboratory surveillance data performed better seasonality and periodicity, especially in semi-annual periodicity in Hefei. Proxy of ILI consultation rate showed more timeliness peak than other proxies, and could be useful in developing the early warning model for influenza epidemics. Our study suggests to integrate clinical and laboratory surveillance of influenza for future influenza seasonality studies in subtropical regions.

SUBMITTER: Liu XX

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5727502 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonal pattern of influenza activity in a subtropical city, China, 2010-2015.

Liu Xu-Xiang XX Li Yahong Y Zhu Yibing Y Zhang Juanjuan J Li Xiaoru X Zhang Junqing J Zhao Kefu K Hu Mingxia M Qin Guoyou G Wang Xi-Ling XL

Scientific reports 20171213 1

Influenza seasonality study is critical for policy-makers to choose an optimal time for influenza vaccination campaign, especially for subtropical regions where influenza seasonality and periodicity are unclear. In this study, we explored the seasonality and periodicity of influenza in Hefei, China during 2010 to 2015 using five proxies originated from three data sources of clinical surveillance of influenza-like illness (ILI), laboratory surveillance of influenza and death registration of pneum ...[more]

PMID: 29235535

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Project description:BackgroundThe impact of influenza on morbidity and hospitalization in the tropics and subtropics is poorly quantified. Uniquely, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has computerized hospital discharge diagnoses on 95% of total bed days, allowing disease burden for a well-defined population to be accurately assessed.Methods and findingsInfluenza-associated morbidity and hospitalization was assessed by Poisson regression models for weekly counts of hospitalizations in Hong Kong during 1996 to 2000, using proportions of positive influenza types A (H1N1 and H3N2) and B isolations in specimens sent for laboratory diagnosis as measures of influenza virus circulation. We adjusted for annual trend, seasonality, temperature, and relative humidity, as well as respiratory syncytial virus circulation. We found that influenza was significantly associated with hospitalization for acute respiratory disease (International Classification of Diseases version 9 codes [ICD9] 460-466 and 480-487) and its subcategory pneumonia and influenza (ICD9 480-487) for all age groups. The annual rates of excess hospitalization per 100,000 population for acute respiratory diseases for the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64, 65-74, and 75+ were 163.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 135-190), 6.0 (95% CI, 2.7-8.9), 14.9 (95% CI, 10.7-18.8), 83.8 (95% CI, 61.2-104.2), and 266 (95% CI, 198.7-330.2), respectively. Influenza was also associated with hospitalization for cerebrovascular disease (ICD9 430-438) for those aged over 75 y (55.4; 95% CI, 23.1-87.8); ischemic heart disease (ICD9 410-414) for the age group 40-64 y (5.3; 95% CI, 0.5-9.5) and over 75 y (56.4; 95% CI, 21.1-93.4); and diabetes mellitus (ICD9 250) for all age groups older than 40 y.ConclusionsInfluenza has a major impact on hospitalization due to cardio-respiratory diseases as well as on cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and diabetes mellitus in the tropics and subtropics. Better utilization of influenza vaccine during annual epidemics in the tropics will enhance global vaccine production capacity and allow for better preparedness to meet the surge in demand that is inevitable in confronting a pandemic.

Dataset Information

Seasonal pattern of influenza activity in a subtropical city, China, 2010-2015.

Publications

Seasonal pattern of influenza activity in a subtropical city, China, 2010-2015.

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