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Unraveling climate influences on the distribution of the parapatric newts Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus.

ABSTRACT: Background:Climate is often considered as a key ecological factor limiting the capability of expansion of most species and the extent of suitable habitats. In this contribution, we implement Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to study two parapatric amphibians, Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus, investigating if and how climate has influenced their present and past (Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene) distributions. A database of 901 GPS presence records was generated for the two newts. SDMs were built through Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, using the Worldclim bioclimatic variables as predictors. Results:Precipitation-linked variables and the temperature annual range strongly influence the current occurrence patterns of the two Lissotriton species analyzed. The two newts show opposite responses to the most contributing variables, such as BIO7 (temperature annual range), BIO12 (annual precipitation), BIO17 (precipitation of the driest quarter) and BIO19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter). The hypothesis of climate influencing the distributions of these species is also supported by the fact that the co-occurrences within the sympatric area fall in localities characterized by intermediate values of these predictors. Projections to the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene scenarios provided a coherent representation of climate influences on the past distributions of the target species. Computation of pairwise variables interactions and the discriminant analysis allowed a deeper interpretation of SDMs' outputs. Further, we propose a multivariate environmental dissimilarity index (MEDI), derived through a transformation of the multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS), to deal with extrapolation-linked uncertainties in model projections to past climate. Finally, the niche equivalency and niche similarity tests confirmed the link between SDMs outputs and actual differences in the ecological niches of the two species. Conclusions:The different responses of the two species to climatic factors have significantly contributed to shape their current distribution, through contractions, expansions and shifts over time, allowing to maintain two wide allopatric areas with an area of sympatry in Central Italy. Moreover, our SDMs hindcasting shows many concordances with previous phylogeographic studies carried out on the same species, thus corroborating the scenarios of potential distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene emerging from the models obtained.

SUBMITTER: Iannella M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5727953 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThe rapid radiation of crested newts (Triturus cristatus superspecies) comprises four morphotypes: 1) the T. karelinii group, 2) T. carnifex - T. macedonicus, 3) T. cristatus and 4) T. dobrogicus. These vary in body build and the number of rib-bearing pre-sacral vertebrae (NRBV). The phylogenetic relationships of the morphotypes have not yet been settled, despite several previous attempts, employing a variety of molecular markers. We here resolve the crested newt phylogeny by using complete mitochondrial genome sequences.ResultsBayesian inference based on the mitogenomic data yields a fully bifurcating, significantly supported tree, though Maximum Likelihood inference yields low support values. The internal branches connecting the morphotypes are short relative to the terminal branches. Seen from the root of Triturus (NRBV = 13), a basal dichotomy separates the T. karelinii group (NRBV = 13) from the remaining crested newts. The next split divides the latter assortment into T. carnifex - T. macedonicus (NRBV = 14) versus T. cristatus (NRBV = 15) and T. dobrogicus (NRBV = 16 or 17).ConclusionsWe argue that the Bayesian full mitochondrial DNA phylogeny is superior to previous attempts aiming to recover the crested newt species tree. Furthermore, our new phylogeny involves a maximally parsimonious interpretation of NRBV evolution. Calibrating the phylogeny allows us to evaluate potential drivers for crested newt cladogenesis. The split between the T. karelinii group and the three other morphotypes, at ca. 10.4 Ma, is associated with the separation of the Balkan and Anatolian landmasses (12-9 Ma). No currently known vicariant events can be ascribed to the other two splits, first at ca. 9.3 Ma, separating T. carnifex - T. macedonicus, and second at ca. 8.8 Ma, splitting T. cristatus and T. dobrogicus. The crested newt morphotypes differ in the duration of their annual aquatic period. We speculate on the role that this ecological differentiation could have played during speciation.

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Unraveling climate influences on the distribution of the parapatric newts Lissotriton vulgaris meridionalis and L. italicus.

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