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Blood pressure and the risk of chronic kidney disease progression using multistate marginal structural models in the CRIC Study.

ABSTRACT: In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), clinical interest often centers on determining treatments and exposures that are causally related to renal progression. Analyses of longitudinal clinical data in this population are often complicated by clinical competing events, such as end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death, and time-dependent confounding, where patient factors that are predictive of later exposures and outcomes are affected by past exposures. We developed multistate marginal structural models (MS-MSMs) to assess the effect of time-varying systolic blood pressure on disease progression in subjects with CKD. The multistate nature of the model allows us to jointly model disease progression characterized by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the onset of ESRD, and death, and thereby avoid unnatural assumptions of death and ESRD as noninformative censoring events for subsequent changes in eGFR. We model the causal effect of systolic blood pressure on the probability of transitioning into 1 of 6 disease states given the current state. We use inverse probability weights with stabilization to account for potential time-varying confounders, including past eGFR, total protein, serum creatinine, and hemoglobin. We apply the model to data from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study, a multisite observational study of patients with CKD.

SUBMITTER: Stephens-Shields AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5730991 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Blood pressure and the risk of chronic kidney disease progression using multistate marginal structural models in the CRIC Study.

Stephens-Shields Alisa J AJ Spieker Andrew J AJ Anderson Amanda A Drawz Paul P Fischer Michael M Sozio Stephen M SM Feldman Harold H Joffe Marshall M Yang Wei W Greene Tom T

Statistics in medicine 20170809 26

In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), clinical interest often centers on determining treatments and exposures that are causally related to renal progression. Analyses of longitudinal clinical data in this population are often complicated by clinical competing events, such as end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death, and time-dependent confounding, where patient factors that are predictive of later exposures and outcomes are affected by past exposures. We developed multistate marginal st ...[more]

PMID: 28791722

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Project description:Importance:Optimal blood pressure (BP) management in children with chronic kidney disease (CKD) slows progression to end-stage renal disease. Studies often base progression risk on a single baseline BP measurement, which may underestimate risk. Objective:To determine whether time-varying BP measurements are associated with a higher risk of progression of CKD than baseline BP measurements. Design, Setting, and Participants:The ongoing longitudinal, prospective cohort study Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKID) recruited children from January 19, 2005, through March 19, 2014, from pediatric nephrology centers across North America, with data collected at annual study visits. Participants included children aged 1 to 16 years with a diagnosis of CKD and a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to 90 mL/min/1.73 m2. Data were analyzed from February 11, 2005, through February 13, 2018. Exposures:Office BP measurement classified as less than 50th percentile, 50th to less than 90th percentile, or at least 90th percentile. Blood pressure categories were treated as time fixed (baseline) or time varying (updated at each visit) in models. Main Outcomes and Measures:A composite renal outcome (50% GFR reduction from baseline, estimated GFR less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, or dialysis or transplant). Pooled logistic models using inverse probability weighting estimated the hazard odds ratio (HOR) of the composite outcome associated with each BP category stratified by CKD diagnosis. Results:A total of 844 children (524 [62.1%] male; median age, 11 [interquartile range, 8-15] years; 151 [17.9%] black; 580 [68.7%] with nonglomerular CKD; and 264 [31.3%] with glomerular CKD) with complete baseline data and median follow-up of 4 (interquartile range, 2-6) years were included. One hundred ninety-six participants with nonglomerular diagnoses (33.8%) and 99 with glomerular diagnoses (37.5%) reached the composite outcome. Baseline systolic BP in at least the 90th percentile was associated with a higher risk of the composite outcome (HOR for nonglomerular disease, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.07-2.32]; HOR for glomerular disease, 2.85 [95% CI, 1.64-4.94]) compared with baseline systolic BP in less than the 50th percentile. Time-fixed estimates were substantially lower compared with time-varying systolic BP percentile categories (HOR among those with nonglomerular CKD, 3.75 [95% CI, 2.53-5.57]; HOR among those with glomerular diagnoses, 5.96 [95% CI, 3.37-10.54]) comparing those at or above the 90th percentile vs below the 50th percentile. Adjusted models (adjusted for proteinuria and use of antihypertensives) attenuated the risk in nonglomerular CKD (adjusted HOR for baseline measurement, 1.52 [95% CI, 0.98-2.36]; adjusted HOR for time-varying measurement, 2.25 [95% CI, 1.36-3.72]) and in glomerular CKD (adjusted HOR for baseline, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.39-2.36]; adjusted HOR for time-varying measurement, 1.41 [95% CI, 0.65-3.03]). Similar results were observed for diastolic BP. Conclusions and Relevance:Among children with nonglomerular CKD included in this study, elevated time-varying BP measurements were associated with a greater risk of CKD progression compared with baseline BP measurement. This finding suggests that previous studies using only baseline BP likely underestimated the association between BP and CKD progression.

Project description:We recently reported a linear association between higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and risk of mortality in hemodialysis patients when SBP is measured outside of the dialysis unit (out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP), despite there being a U-shaped association between SBP measured at the dialysis unit (dialysis-unit-SBP) with risk of mortality. Here, we explored the relationship between SBP with cardiovascular events, which has important treatment implications but has not been well elucidated. Among 383 hemodialysis participants enrolled in the prospective CRIC study (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort), multivariable splines and Cox models were used to study the association between SBP and adjudicated cardiovascular events (heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and peripheral artery disease), controlling for differences in demographics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and dialysis parameters. Dialysis-unit-SBP and out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP were modestly correlated (r=0.34; P<0.001). We noted a U-shaped association of dialysis-unit-SBP and risk of cardiovascular events, with the nadir risk between 140 and 170 mm Hg. In contrast, there was a linear stepwise association between out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP with risk of cardiovascular events. Participants with out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP ≥128 mm Hg (top 2 quartiles) had >2-fold increased risk of cardiovascular events compared with those with out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP ≤112 mm Hg (3rd SBP quartile: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.08 [95% confidence interval, 1.12-3.87] and fourth SBP quartile: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.76 [95% confidence interval, 1.42-5.33]). In conclusion, among hemodialysis patients, although there is a U-shaped (paradoxical) association of dialysis-unit-SBP and risk of cardiovascular disease, there is a linear association of out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP with risk of cardiovascular disease. Out-of-dialysis-unit blood pressure provides key information and may be an important therapeutic target.

Project description:BackgroundIn chronic kidney disease, intensive systolic blood pressure (SBP) control reduces mortality at a cost of greater acute kidney injury risk. Kidney transplantation involves implantation of denervated kidneys and immunosuppressive medications that increase acute kidney injury risk. The optimal blood pressure (BP) target in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) is uncertain. Prior observational studies from the Folic Acid for Vascular Outcome Reduction in Transplantation (FAVORIT) trial demonstrate associations of lower SBP levels and reduced mortality risk, but the relationship of BP with kidney allograft function remains unknown. Thus, in FAVORIT, we investigated the relationship of SBP and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with risk of kidney allograft failure and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope among stable KTRs.MethodsCox proportional hazards and multivariable linear regression models adjusted for demographics, transplant characteristics, comorbidities, baseline eGFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio were used to determine associations of SBP and DBP with time to a composite kidney outcome of ≥50% eGFR decline or dialysis dependence, and with annualized eGFR change, respectively. Multivariable restricted cubic spline plots were developed to evaluate the functional form of the relationships.ResultsAmong 3,598 KTRs, mean age was 52 ± 9 years, SBP was 136 ± 20 mm Hg, DBP was 79 ± 12 mm Hg, and eGFR was 49 ± 18 ml/minute/1.73 m2. There were 369 events of ≥50% eGFR decline or dialysis dependence during a mean follow-up of 4.0 ± 1.5 years. There was no association of either SBP (compared with SBP 120 to <130 mm Hg, hazard ratio (HR) for the SBP < 110 was 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60 to 1.70) and 130 to <140 was 0.89 (0.64 to 1.24)) or DBP (compared with DBP 70 to <80 mm Hg, HR for the DBP 60 to <70 was 1.00 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.34) and 80 to <90 was 0.90 (0.68 to 1.18)) with the kidney failure outcome or annualized eGFR slope, and, when examined using restricted cubic splines, there was no evidence of "J"- or "U"-shaped relationships.ConclusionsIn a large sample of stable KTRs, we found no evidence of thresholds at which lower BPs were related to higher risk of allograft failure or eGFR decline. In light of prior findings of mortality benefit at low SBP, these observational findings suggest lower BP may be beneficial in KTRs. This important question requires confirmation in future randomized trials in KTRs.

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Blood pressure and the risk of chronic kidney disease progression using multistate marginal structural models in the CRIC Study.

Publications

Blood pressure and the risk of chronic kidney disease progression using multistate marginal structural models in the CRIC Study.

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