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Developing a novel risk prediction model for severe malarial anemia.

ABSTRACT: As a pilot study to investigate whether personalized medicine approaches could have value for the reduction of malaria-related mortality in young children, we evaluated questionnaire and biomarker data collected from the Mother Offspring Malaria Study Project birth cohort (Muheza, Tanzania, 2002-2006) at the time of delivery as potential prognostic markers for pediatric severe malarial anemia. Severe malarial anemia, defined here as a Plasmodium falciparum infection accompanied by hemoglobin levels below 50 g/L, is a key manifestation of life-threatening malaria in high transmission regions. For this study sample, a prediction model incorporating cord blood levels of interleukin-1β provided the strongest discrimination of severe malarial anemia risk with a C-index of 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84), whereas a pragmatic model based on sex, gravidity, transmission season at delivery, and bed net possession yielded a more modest C-index of 0.63 (95% CI 0.54-0.71). Although additional studies, ideally incorporating larger sample sizes and higher event per predictor ratios, are needed to externally validate these prediction models, the findings provide proof of concept that risk score-based screening programs could be developed to avert severe malaria cases in early childhood.

SUBMITTER: Brickley EB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5732579 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Developing a novel risk prediction model for severe malarial anemia.

Brickley E B EB Kabyemela E E Kurtis J D JD Fried M M Wood A M AM Duffy P E PE

Global health, epidemiology and genomics 20170911

As a pilot study to investigate whether personalized medicine approaches could have value for the reduction of malaria-related mortality in young children, we evaluated questionnaire and biomarker data collected from the Mother Offspring Malaria Study Project birth cohort (Muheza, Tanzania, 2002-2006) at the time of delivery as potential prognostic markers for pediatric severe malarial anemia. Severe malarial anemia, defined here as a <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> infection accompanied by hemoglo ...[more]

PMID: 29276621

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Project description:Greater than 80% of malaria-related mortality occurs in sub-Saharan Africa due to infections with Plasmodium falciparum. The majority of P. falciparum-related mortality occurs in immune-naïve infants and young children, accounting for 18% of all deaths before five years of age. Clinical manifestations of severe falciparum malaria vary according to transmission intensity and typically present as one or more life-threatening complications, including: hyperparasitemia; hypoglycemia; cerebral malaria; severe malarial anemia (SMA); and respiratory distress. In holoendemic transmission areas, SMA is the primary clinical manifestation of severe childhood malaria, with cerebral malaria occurring only in rare cases. Mortality rates from SMA can exceed 30% in pediatric populations residing in holoendemic transmission areas. Since the vast majority of the morbidity and mortality occurs in immune-naïve African children less than five years of age, with SMA as the primary manifestation of severe disease, this review will focus primarily on the innate immune mechanisms that govern malaria pathogenesis in this group of individuals. The pathophysiological processes that contribute to SMA involve direct and indirect destruction of parasitized and non-parasitized red blood cells (RBCs), inefficient and/or suppression of erythropoiesis, and dyserythropoiesis. While all of these causal etiologies may contribute to reduced hemoglobin (Hb) concentrations in malaria-infected individuals, data from our laboratory and others suggest that SMA in immune-naïve children is characterized by a reduced erythropoietic response. One important cause of impaired erythroid responses in children with SMA is dysregulation in the innate immune response. Phagocytosis of malarial pigment hemozoin (Hz) by monocytes, macrophages, and neutrophils is a central factor for promoting dysregulation in innate inflammatory mediators. As such, the role of P. falciparum-derived Hz (PfHz) in mediating suppression of erythropoiesis through its ability to cause dysregulation in pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, growth factors, chemokines, and effector molecules is discussed in detail. An improved understanding of the etiological basis of suppression of erythropoietic responses in children with SMA may offer the much needed therapeutic alternatives for control of this global disease burden.

Project description:BackgroundWHO guidelines recommend concurrent iron and antimalarial treatment in children with malaria and iron deficiency, but iron may not be well absorbed or utilized during a malaria episode.ObjectivesWe aimed to determine whether starting iron 28 d after antimalarial treatment in children with severe malaria and iron deficiency would improve iron status and lower malaria risk.MethodsWe conducted a randomized clinical trial on the effect of immediate compared with delayed iron treatment in Ugandan children 18 mo-5 y of age with 2 forms of severe malaria: cerebral malaria (CM; n = 79) or severe malarial anemia (SMA; n = 77). Asymptomatic community children (CC; n = 83) were enrolled as a comparison group. Children with iron deficiency, defined as zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) ≥ 80 µmol/mol heme, were randomly assigned to receive a 3-mo course of daily oral ferrous sulfate (2 mg · kg-1 · d-1) either concurrently with antimalarial treatment (immediate arm) or 28 d after receiving antimalarial treatment (delayed arm). Children were followed for 12 mo.ResultsAll children with CM or SMA, and 35 (42.2%) CC, were iron-deficient and were randomly assigned to immediate or delayed iron treatment. Immediate compared with delayed iron had no effect in any of the 3 study groups on the primary study outcomes (hemoglobin concentration and prevalence of ZPP ≥ 80 µmol/mol heme at 6 mo, malaria incidence over 12 mo). However, after 12 mo, children with SMA in the delayed compared with the immediate arm had a lower prevalence of iron deficiency defined by ZPP (29.4% compared with 65.6%, P = 0.006), a lower mean concentration of soluble transferrin receptor (6.1 compared with 7.8 mg/L, P = 0.03), and showed a trend toward fewer episodes of severe malaria (incidence rate ratio: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.14, 1.12).ConclusionsIn children with SMA, delayed iron treatment did not increase hemoglobin concentration, but did improve long-term iron status over 12 mo without affecting malaria incidence.This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01093989.

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Developing a novel risk prediction model for severe malarial anemia.

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Developing a novel risk prediction model for severe malarial anemia.

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