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Modeling HIV-HCV coinfection epidemiology in the direct-acting antiviral era: the road to elimination.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:HCV treatment uptake has drastically increased in HIV-HCV coinfected patients in France since direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment approval, resulting in HCV cure in 63% of all HIV-HCV patients by the end of 2015. We investigated the impact of scaling-up DAA on HCV prevalence in the whole HIV population and in various risk groups over the next 10 years in France using a transmission dynamic compartmental model. METHODS:The model was based on epidemiological data from the French Dat'AIDS cohort. Eight risk groups were considered, including high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) men who have sex with men (MSM) and male/female heterosexuals, intra-venous drug users, or patients from other risk groups. The model was calibrated on prevalence and incidence data observed in the cohort between 2012 and 2015. RESULTS:On January 1, 2016, 156,811 patients were registered as infected with HIV in France (24,900 undiagnosed patients) of whom 7938 (5.1%) had detectable HCV-RNA (722 undiagnosed patients). Assuming a treatment coverage (TC) rate of 30%/year (i.e., the observed rate in 2015), model projections showed that HCV prevalence among HIV patients is expected to drop to 0.81% in 2026. Sub-analyses showed a similar decrease of HIV-HCV prevalence in most risk groups, including LR MSM. Due to higher infection and reinfection rates, predicted prevalence in HR MSM remained stable from 6.96% in 2016 to 6.34% in 2026. Increasing annual TC rate in HR MSM to 50/70% would decrease HCV prevalence in this group to 2.35/1.25% in 2026. With a 30% TC rate, undiagnosed patients would account for 34% of HCV infections in 2026. CONCLUSIONS:Our model suggests that DAA could nearly eliminate coinfection in France within 10 years for most risk groups, including LR MSM. Elimination in HR MSM will require increased TC.

SUBMITTER: Virlogeux V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5733872 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling HIV-HCV coinfection epidemiology in the direct-acting antiviral era: the road to elimination.

Virlogeux Victor V Zoulim Fabien F Pugliese Pascal P Poizot-Martin Isabelle I Valantin Marc-Antoine MA Cuzin Lise L Reynes Jacques J Billaud Eric E Huleux Thomas T Bani-Sadr Firouze F Rey David D Frésard Anne A Jacomet Christine C Duvivier Claudine C Cheret Antoine A Hustache-Mathieu Laurent L Hoen Bruno B Cabié André A Cotte Laurent L

BMC medicine 20171218 1

<h4>Background</h4>HCV treatment uptake has drastically increased in HIV-HCV coinfected patients in France since direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment approval, resulting in HCV cure in 63% of all HIV-HCV patients by the end of 2015. We investigated the impact of scaling-up DAA on HCV prevalence in the whole HIV population and in various risk groups over the next 10 years in France using a transmission dynamic compartmental model.<h4>Methods</h4>The model was based on epidemiological data from ...[more]

PMID: 29249202

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Project description:We evaluated treatment outcomes in a prospective registry of human immunodeficiency virus/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected patients treated with interferon-free direct-acting antiviral agent-based therapy in hospitals from the region of Madrid between November 2014 and August 2016. We assessed sustained viral response at 12 weeks after completion of treatment and used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of treatment failure. We evaluated 2,369 patients, of whom 59.5% did not have cirrhosis, 33.9% had compensated cirrhosis, and 6.6% had decompensated cirrhosis. The predominant HCV genotypes were 1a (40.9%), 4 (22.4%), 1b (15.1%), and 3 (15.0%). Treatment regimens included sofosbuvir (SOF)/ledipasvir (61.9%), SOF plus daclatasvir (14.6%), dasabuvir plus ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir (13.2%), and other regimens (10.3%). Ribavirin was used in 30.6% of patients. Less than 1% of patients discontinued therapy owing to adverse events. The frequency of sustained viral response by intention-to-treat analysis was 92.0% (95% confidence interval, 90.9%-93.1%) overall, 93.8% (92.4%-95.0%) for no cirrhosis, 91.0% (88.8%-92.9%) for compensated cirrhosis, and 80.8% (73.7%-86.6%) for decompensated cirrhosis. The factors associated with treatment failure were male sex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.69), Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention category C (adjusted odds ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.41), a baseline cluster of differentiation 4-positive (CD4+) T-cell count <200/mm3 (adjusted odds ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-3.92), an HCV RNA load ≥800,000 IU/mL (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-2.36), compensated cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.89), decompensated cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio, 2.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-4.87), and the use of SOF plus simeprevir, SOF plus ribavirin, and simeprevir plus daclatasvir.ConclusionIn this large real-world study, direct-acting antiviral agent-based therapy was safe and highly effective in coinfected patients; predictors of failure included gender, human immunodeficiency virus-related immunosuppression, HCV RNA load, severity of liver disease, and the use of suboptimal direct-acting antiviral agent-based regimens. (Hepatology 2018;68:32-47).

Project description:The face of hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy is changing dramatically. Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) specifically targeting HCV proteins have been developed and entered clinical practice in 2011. However, despite high sustained viral response (SVR) rates of more than 90%, a fraction of patients do not eliminate the virus and in these cases treatment failure has been associated with the selection of drug resistance mutations (RAMs). RAMs may be prevalent prior to the start of treatment, or can be selected under therapy, and furthermore they can persist after cessation of treatment. Additionally, certain DAAs have been approved only for distinct HCV genotypes and may even have subtype specificity. Thus, sequence analysis before start of therapy is instrumental for managing DAA-based treatment strategies. We have created the interpretation system geno2pheno[HCV] (g2p[HCV]) to analyse HCV sequence data with respect to viral subtype and to predict drug resistance. Extensive reviewing and weighting of literature related to HCV drug resistance was performed to create a comprehensive list of drug resistance rules for inhibitors of the HCV protease in non-structural protein 3 (NS3-protease: Boceprevir, Paritaprevir, Simeprevir, Asunaprevir, Grazoprevir and Telaprevir), the NS5A replicase factor (Daclatasvir, Ledipasvir, Elbasvir and Ombitasvir), and the NS5B RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (Dasabuvir and Sofosbuvir). Upon submission of up to eight sequences, g2p[HCV] aligns the input sequences, identifies the genomic region(s), predicts the HCV geno- and subtypes, and generates for each DAA a drug resistance prediction report. g2p[HCV] offers easy-to-use and fast subtype and resistance analysis of HCV sequences, is continuously updated and freely accessible under http://hcv.geno2pheno.org/index.php. The system was partially validated with respect to the NS3-protease inhibitors Boceprevir, Telaprevir and Simeprevir by using data generated with recombinant, phenotypic cell culture assays obtained from patients' virus variants.

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Modeling HIV-HCV coinfection epidemiology in the direct-acting antiviral era: the road to elimination.

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Modeling HIV-HCV coinfection epidemiology in the direct-acting antiviral era: the road to elimination.

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