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Latent class models for Echinococcus multilocularis diagnosis in foxes in Switzerland in the absence of a gold standard.

ABSTRACT: In Europe the principal definitive host for Echinococcus multilocularis, causing alveolar echinococcosis in humans, is the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Obtaining reliable estimates of the prevalence of E. multilocularis and relevant risk factors for infection in foxes can be difficult if diagnostic tests with unknown test accuracies are used. Latent-class analysis can be used to obtain estimates of diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities in the absence of a perfect gold standard. Samples from 300 foxes in Switzerland were assessed by four different diagnostic tests including necropsy followed by sedimentation and counting technique (SCT), an egg-PCR, a monoclonal and a polyclonal copro-antigen ELISA. Information on sex, age and presence of other cestode species was assessed as potential covariates in the Bayesian latent class models. Different Bayesian latent-class models were run, considering dichotomized test results and, additionally, continuous readings resulting in empirical ROC curves.The model without covariates estimated a true parasite prevalence of 59.5% (95% CI: 43.1-66.4%). SCT, assuming a specificity of 100%, performed best among the four tests with a sensitivity of 88.5% (95% CI: 82.7-93.4%). The egg-PCR showed a specificity of 93.4% (95% CI: 87.3-99.1%), although its sensitivity of 54.8% was found moderately low (95% CI: 48.5-61.0%). Relatively higher sensitivity (63.2%, 95% CI: 55.3-70.8%) and specificity (70.0%, 95% CI: 60.1-79.4%) were estimated for the monoclonal ELISA compared to the polyclonal ELISA with a sensitivity and specificity of 56.0% (95% CI: 48.0-63.9%) and 65.9% (95% CI: 55.8-75.6%), respectively. In the Bayesian models, adult foxes were found to be less likely infected than juveniles. Foxes with a concomitant cestode infection had double the odds of an E. multilocularis infection. ROC curves following a Bayesian approach enabled the empirical determination of the best cut-off point. While varying the cut-offs of both ELISAs, sensitivity and specificity of the egg-PCR and SCT remained constant in the Bayesian latent class models.Adoption of a Bayesian latent class approach helps to overcome the absence of a perfectly accurate diagnostic test and gives a more reliable indication of the test performance and the impact of covariates on the prevalence adjusted for diagnostic uncertainty.

SUBMITTER: Otero-Abad B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5737983 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAlveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a clinically serious zoonosis caused by the fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis. We studied the diversity and the distribution of genotypes of E. multilocularis isolated from foxes in Brandenburg, Germany, and in comparison to a hunting ground in North Rhine-Westphalia.MethodsEchinococcus multilocularis specimens from 101 foxes, 91 derived from Brandenburg and 10 derived from North Rhine-Westphalia, were examined. To detect potential mixed infections with different genotypes of E. multilocularis, five worms per fox were analyzed. For genotyping, three mitochondrial markers, namely cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (Cox1), NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1 (Nad1), and ATP synthase subunit 6 (ATP6), and the nuclear microsatellite marker EmsB were used. To identify nucleotide polymorphisms, the mitochondrial markers were sequenced and the data were compared, including with published sequences from other regions. EmsB fragment length profiles were determined and confirmed by Kohonen network analysis and grouping of Sammon's nonlinear mapping with k-means clustering. The spatial distribution of genotypes was analyzed by SaTScan for the EmsB profiles found in Brandenburg.ResultsWith both the mitochondrial makers and the EmsB microsatellite fragment length profile analyses, mixed infections with different E. multilocularis genotypes were detected in foxes from Brandenburg and North Rhine-Westphalia. Genotyping using the mitochondrial markers showed that the examined parasite specimens belong to the European haplotype of E. multilocularis, but a detailed spatial analysis was not possible due to the limited heterogeneity of these markers in the parasite population. Four (D, E, G, and H) out of the five EmsB profiles described in Europe so far were detected in the samples from Brandenburg and North Rhine-Westphalia. The EmsB profile G was the most common. A spatial cluster of the E. multilocularis genotype with the EmsB profile G was found in northeastern Brandenburg, and a cluster of profile D was found in southern parts of this state.ConclusionsGenotyping of E. multilocularis showed that individual foxes may harbor different genotypes of the parasite. EmsB profiles allowed the identification of spatial clusters, which may help in understanding the distribution and spread of the infection in wildlife, and in relatively small endemic areas.

Project description:BackgroundEchinococcus multilocularis is a small tapeworm affecting wild and domestic carnivores and voles in a typical prey-predator life cycle. In Italy, there has been a focus of E. multilocularis since 1997 in the northern Italian Alps, later confirmed in red foxes collected from 2001 to 2005. In this study, we report the results of seven years of monitoring on E. multilocularis and other cestodes in foxes and describe the changes that occurred over time and among areas (eco-regions) showing different environmental and ecological features on a large scale.MethodsEggs of cestodes were isolated from feces of 2872 foxes with a sedimentation/filtration technique. The cestode species was determined through multiplex PCR, targeting and sequencing ND1 and 12S genes. Analyses were aimed to highlight variations among different eco-regions and trends in prevalence across the study years.ResultsOut of 2872 foxes, 217 (7.55%) samples resulted positive for cestode eggs at coproscopy, with differences of prevalence according to year, sampling area and age class. Eight species of cestodes were identified, with Taenia crassiceps (2.65%), Taenia polyacantha (1.98%) and E. multilocularis (1.04%) as the most represented. The other species, Mesocestoides litteratus, Taenia krabbei, T. serialis, T. taeniaeformis and Dipylidium caninum, accounted for < 1% altogether. Echinococcus multilocularis was identified in foxes from two out of six eco-regions, in 30 fecal samples, accounting for 1.04% within the cestode positives at coproscopy. All E. multilocularis isolates came from Bolzano province. Prevalence of cestodes, both collectively and for each of the three most represented species (T. crassiceps, T. polyacantha and E. multilocularis), varied based on the sampling year, and for E. multilocularis an apparent increasing trend across the last few years was evidenced.ConclusionsOur study confirms the presence of a focus of E. multilocularis in red foxes of northeast Italy. Although this focus seems still spatially limited, given its persistence and apparent increasing prevalence through the years, we recommend research to be conducted in the future on the ecological factors that, on a smaller scale, allow this zoonotic species to persist. On the same scale, we recommend a health education campaign to inform on the measures to prevent this zoonosis, targeted at people living in the area, especially hunters, dog owners, forestry workers and other potentially exposed categories.

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Latent class models for Echinococcus multilocularis diagnosis in foxes in Switzerland in the absence of a gold standard.

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