Dataset Information

Predicting phenological shifts in a changing climate.

ABSTRACT: Phenological shifts constitute one of the clearest manifestations of climate warming. Advanced emergence is widely reported in high-latitude ectotherms, but a significant number of species exhibit delayed, or no change in, emergence. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that reconciles these disparate observations and predicts population-level phenological patterns based solely on data on temperature responses of the underlying life history traits. Our model, parameterized with data from insects at different latitudes, shows that peak abundance occurs earlier in the year when warming increases the mean environmental temperature, but is delayed when warming increases the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations. We find that warming does not necessarily lead to a longer activity period in high-latitude species because it elevates summer temperatures above the upper limit for reproduction and development. Our findings both confirm and confound expectations for ectotherm species affected by climate warming: an increase in the mean temperature is more detrimental to low-latitude species adapted to high mean temperatures and low-amplitude seasonal fluctuations; an increase in seasonal fluctuations is more detrimental to high-latitude species adapted to low mean temperatures and high-amplitude fluctuations.

SUBMITTER: Scranton K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5740618 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting phenological shifts in a changing climate.

Scranton Katherine K Amarasekare Priyanga P

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20171127 50

Phenological shifts constitute one of the clearest manifestations of climate warming. Advanced emergence is widely reported in high-latitude ectotherms, but a significant number of species exhibit delayed, or no change in, emergence. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that reconciles these disparate observations and predicts population-level phenological patterns based solely on data on temperature responses of the underlying life history traits. Our model, parameterized with da ...[more]

PMID: 29180401

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Project description:Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961-1980 and 2001-2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961-1980 and 2001-2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal-limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal-limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.

Dataset Information

Predicting phenological shifts in a changing climate.

Publications

Predicting phenological shifts in a changing climate.

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