Dataset Information

Estimating species pools for a single ecological assemblage.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The species pool concept was formulated over the past several decades and has since played an important role in explaining multi-scale ecological patterns. Previous statistical methods were developed to identify species pools based on broad-scale species range maps or community similarity computed from data collected from many areas. No statistical method is available for estimating species pools for a single local community (sampling area size may be very small as ≤ 1 km2). In this study, based on limited local abundance information, we developed a simple method to estimate the area size and richness of a species pool for a local ecological community. The method involves two steps. In the first step, parameters from a truncated negative trinomial model characterizing the distributional aggregation of all species (i.e., non-random species distribution) in the local community were estimated. In the second step, we assume that the unseen species in the local community are most likely the rare species, only found in the remaining part of the species pool, and vice versa, if the remaining portion of the pool was surveyed and was contrasted with the sampled area. Therefore, we can estimate the area size of the pool, as long as an abundance threshold for defining rare species is given. Since the size of the pool is dependent on the rarity threshold, to unanimously determine the pool size, we developed an optimal method to delineate the rarity threshold based on the balance of the changing rates of species absence probabilities in the sampled and unsampled areas of the pool. RESULTS:For a 50 ha (0.5 km2) forest plot in the Barro Colorado Island of central Panama, our model predicted that the local, if not regional, species pool for the 0.5 km2 forest plot was nearly the entire island. Accordingly, tree species richness in this pool was estimated as around 360. When the sampling size was smaller, the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval could reach 418, which was very close to the flora record of tree richness for the island. A numerical test further demonstrated the power and reliability of the proposed method, as the true values of area size and species richness for the hypothetical species pool have been well covered by the 95% confidence intervals of the true values. CONCLUSIONS:Our method fills the knowledge gap on estimating species pools for a single local ecological assemblage with little information. The method is statistically robust and independent of sampling size, as proved by both empirical and numerical tests.

SUBMITTER: Shen TJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5741966 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:To predict the impact of environmental change on species distributions, it has been hypothesized that community-level models could give some benefits compared to species-level models. In this study we have assessed the performance of these two approaches. We surveyed 256 bird communities in an agricultural landscape in southwest France at the same locations in 1982 and 2007. We compared the ability of CQO (canonical quadratic ordination; a method of community-level GLM) and GLMs (generalized linear models) to i) explain species distributions in 1982 and ii) predict species distributions, community composition and species richness in 2007, after land cover change. Our results show that models accounting for shared patterns between species (CQO) slightly better explain the distribution of rare species than models that ignore them (GLMs). Conversely, the predictive performances were better for GLMs than for CQO. At the assemblage level, both CQO and GLMs overestimated species richness, compared with that actually observed in 2007, and projected community composition was only moderately similar to that observed in 2007. Species richness projections tended to be more accurate in sites where land cover change was more marked. In contrast, the composition projections tended to be less accurate in those sites. Both modelling approaches showed a similar but limited ability to predict species distribution and assemblage composition under conditions of land cover change. Our study supports the idea that our community-level model can improve understanding of rare species patterns but that species-level models can provide slightly more accurate predictions of species distributions. At the community level, the similar performance of both approaches for predicting patterns of assemblage variation suggests that species tend to respond individualistically or, alternatively, that our community model was unable to effectively account for the emergent community patterns.

Dataset Information

Estimating species pools for a single ecological assemblage.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets