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Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption.

ABSTRACT: In March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake devastated several power stations and caused severe electricity shortages. This accident was followed by the implementation of policies to reduce summer electricity consumption in the affected areas, for example, by limiting air-conditioning (AC) use. This provided a natural experimental scenario to investigate if these policies were associated with an increase in heat-related mortality.We examined whether the reduced electricity consumption in warm season modified heat-related mortality from 2008 to 2012.We conducted prefecture-specific interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses to compare temperature-mortality associations before and after the earthquake, and used meta-analysis to generate combined effect estimates for the most affected and less affected areas (prefectures with >10% or ?10% reductions in electricity consumption, respectively). We then examined whether the temperature-mortality association in Tokyo, one of the most affected areas, was modified by the percent reduction in electricity consumption relative to expected consumption for comparable days before the earthquake.Contrary to expectations, we estimated a 5-9% reduction in all-cause heat-related mortality after the earthquake in the 15 prefectures with the greatest reduction in electricity consumption, and little change in the other prefectures. However, the percent reduction in observed vs. expected daily electricity consumption after the earthquake did not significantly modify daily heat-related mortality in Tokyo.In the prefectures with the greatest reductions in electricity consumption, heat-related mortality decreased rather than increased following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Additional research is needed to determine whether this finding holds for other populations and regions, and to clarify its implications for policies to reduce the consequences of climate change on health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP493.

SUBMITTER: Kim Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5744700 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption.

Kim Yoonhee Y Gasparrini Antonio A Hashizume Masahiro M Honda Yasushi Y Ng Chris Fook Sheng CFS Armstrong Ben B

Environmental health perspectives 20170706 7

<h4>Background</h4>In March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake devastated several power stations and caused severe electricity shortages. This accident was followed by the implementation of policies to reduce summer electricity consumption in the affected areas, for example, by limiting air-conditioning (AC) use. This provided a natural experimental scenario to investigate if these policies were associated with an increase in heat-related mortality.<h4>Objectives</h4>We examined whether the r ...[more]

PMID: 28686555

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Project description:Little information is available concerning how patient delay may be affected by mass disasters. The main objectives of the present study are to identify whether there was a post-disaster increase in the risk of experiencing patient delay among breast cancer patients in an area affected by the 2011 triple disaster in Fukushima, Japan, and to elucidate factors associated with post-disaster patient delay. Sociodemographic factors (age, employment status, cohabitant status and evacuation status), health characteristics, and health access- and disaster-related factors were specifically considered.Records of symptomatic breast cancer patients diagnosed from 2005 to 2016 were retrospectively reviewed to calculate risk ratios (RRs) for patient delay in every year post-disaster compared with the pre-disaster baseline. Total and excessive patient delays were respectively defined as three months or more and twelve months or more from symptom recognition to first medical consultation. Logistic regression analysis was conducted for pre- and post-disaster patient delay in order to reveal any factors potentially associated with patient delay, and changes after the disaster.Two hundred nineteen breast cancer patients (122 pre-disaster and 97 post-disaster) were included. After adjustments for age, significant post-disaster increases in RRs of experiencing both total (RR: 1.66, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.02-2.70, p < 0.05) and excessive patient delay (RR: 4.49, 95% CI: 1.73-11.65, p < 0.01) were observed. The RRs for total patient delay peaked in the fourth year post-disaster, and significant increases in the risk of excessive patient delay were observed in the second, fourth, and fifth years post-disaster, with more than five times the risk observed pre-disaster. A family history of any cancer was the only factor significantly associated with total patient delay post-disaster (odds ratio: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.15-0.95, p < 0.05), while there were no variables associated with delay pre-disaster.The triple disaster in Fukushima appears to have led to an increased risk of patient delay among breast cancer patients, and this trend has continued for five years following the disaster.

Project description:Importance:The association of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster of March 11 and 12, 2011, in Fukushima, Japan, with birth rates has not been examined appropriately in the existing literature. Objective:To assess the midterm and long-term associations of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster with birth rates. Design, Setting, and Participants:Cohort study in which interrupted time series analyses were used to assess monthly changes in birth rates among residents of Fukushima City, Japan, from March 1, 2011, to December 31, 2017, relative to projected birth rates without the disaster based on predisaster trends. Birth rates from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, in Fukushima City were determined using information from the Fukushima City government office. Exposure:The Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster, expressed via 5 potential models of the association with birth rate: level change, level and slope changes, temporal level change, and temporal level change with 1 or 2 slope change(s). Main Outcomes and Measures:Birth rate, calculated from monthly data on the number of births and total population. Results:The mean birth rate before the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster was 69.8 per 100 000 people per month; after the disaster, the mean birth rate was 61.9 per 100 000 people per month. Compared with birth rates before the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster, there was an estimated 10% reduction in monthly birth rates in Fukushima City (rate ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.93) in the first 2 years after the disaster. After that, the birth rate trend was similar to the predisaster trend. The predisaster trend suggested a continuous decrease in birth rate (rate ratio for 1 year, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99). This gap model was optimal and parsimonious compared with others. A similar association was found when trimonthly averaged data were analyzed. Conclusions and Relevance:The Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster were followed by significant reductions in birth rates for 2 years. There was insufficient evidence to indicate that the trend in the 3 to 7 years after the disaster differed from the predisaster trends. The recovery from the reductions in the birth rate may be indicative of the rebuilding efforts. The continuing long-term decrease in birth rates observed before the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster suggests that continuing measures to support birth planning should be considered at the administrative level.

Dataset Information

Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption.

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Heat-Related Mortality in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima Disaster: An Analysis of Potential Influence of Reduced Electricity Consumption.

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