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Estimated need for surgery worldwide based on prevalence of diseases: a modelling strategy for the WHO Global Health Estimate.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Surgery is a foundational component of health-care systems. However, previous efforts to integrate surgical services into global health initiatives do not reflect the scope of surgical need and many health systems do not provide essential interventions. We estimate the minimum global volume of surgical need to address prevalent diseases in 21 epidemiological regions from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD). METHODS:Prevalence data were obtained from GBD 2010 and organised into 119 disease states according to the WHO's Global Health Estimate (GHE). These data, representing 187 countries, were then apportioned into the 21 GBD epidemiological regions. Using previously defined values for the incident need for surgery for each of the 119 GHE disease states, we calculate minimum global need for surgery based on the prevalence of each condition in each region. FINDINGS:We estimate that at least 321·5 million surgical procedures would be needed to address the burden of disease for a global population of 6·9 billion in 2010. Minimum rates of surgical need vary across regions, ranging from 3383 operations per 100?000 in central Latin America to 6495 operations per 100?000 in western sub-Saharan Africa. Global surgical need also varied across subcategories of disease, ranging from 131?412 procedures for nutritional deficiencies to 45·8 million procedures for unintentional injuries. INTERPRETATION:The estimated need for surgical procedures worldwide is large and addresses a broad spectrum of disease states. Surgical need varies between regions of the world according to disease prevalence and many countries do not meet the basic needs of their populations. These estimates could be useful for policy makers, funders, and ministries of health as they consider how to incorporate surgical capacity into health systems. FUNDING:US National Institutes of Health.

SUBMITTER: Rose J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5746187 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimated need for surgery worldwide based on prevalence of diseases: a modelling strategy for the WHO Global Health Estimate.

Rose John J Weiser Thomas G TG Hider Phil P Wilson Leona L Gruen Russell L RL Bickler Stephen W SW

The Lancet. Global health 20150401

<h4>Background</h4>Surgery is a foundational component of health-care systems. However, previous efforts to integrate surgical services into global health initiatives do not reflect the scope of surgical need and many health systems do not provide essential interventions. We estimate the minimum global volume of surgical need to address prevalent diseases in 21 epidemiological regions from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD).<h4>Methods</h4>Prevalence data were obtained from GBD 2010 a ...[more]

PMID: 25926315

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the main health and development challenge facing humankind all over the world. They are inextricably linked to socio-economic development. Deaths caused by NCDs should be different in different socio-economic development stages. The stratified heterogeneity of NCD deaths is currently not fully explored. METHODS:Countries were classified according to their socio-economic types and development stages, which were illustrated as a tree-like structure called Geotree. NCD deaths were linked to the countries and so were attached to the Geotree, which was modelled by a multilevel model (MLM) approach. Accordingly, the levels of NCD death indexes were predicted for 2030. RESULTS:Through the Geotree structure constructed in the study, it can be seen that the NCD death index has obvious stratified heterogeneity; that is, the NCD death index shows different trends in different country types and socio-economic development stages. In the first-level branches (country type), as national income increases, NCD mortality rate decreases and the proportion of NCD deaths to total deaths increases. In the secondary-level trunks (socio-economic development stage), as a country's development stage rises, the NCD mortality rate decreases and the proportion of NCD deaths to total deaths increases. In addition, combined with the hierarchical nature of the evolution tree model, the MLM was used to predict the global NCD death index for 2030. The result was that by 2030, the global average age-standardized NCD mortality rate would be 510.54 (per 100,000 population) and the global average mortality for NCD deaths of the total number of deaths would be 75.26%. CONCLUSIONS:This study found that there is a significant association between socio-economic factors and NCD death indicators in the tree-like structure. In the Geotree, countries on the same branch or trunk can learn from countries with higher development stages to formulate more effective NCD response policies and find the right prevention and treatment path.

Project description:BackgroundStunting is determined by using the World Health Organization (WHO) child growth standard which was developed using precise measurements. However, it is unlikely that large scale surveys maintain the same level of rigour and precision when measuring the height of children. The population measure of stunting in children is sensitive to over-dispersion, and the high prevalence of stunting observed in surveys in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) could partly be due to lower measurement precison.ObjectivesTo quantify the incongruence in the dispersion of height-for-age in national surveys of < 5 y children, in relation to the standard WHO Multicenter Growth Reference Study (MGRS), and propose a measure of uncertainty in population measures of stunting.MethodsAn uncertainty factor was proposed and measured from the observed incongruence in dispersion of the height-for-age of < 5 y children in the MGRS against carefully matched populations from the Demographic Health Survey of 17 countries ('test datasets', based on the availability of data). This also allowed for the determination of uncertainty-corrected prevalence of stunting (height-for-age Z score < - 2) in < 5 y children.ResultsThe uncertainty factor was estimated for 17 LMICs. This ranged from 0.9 to 2.1 for Peru and Egypt respectively (reference value 1). As an explicit country example, the dispersion of height-for-age in the Indian National Family Health Survey-4 test dataset was 39% higher than the MGRS study, with an uncertainty factor of 1.39. From this, the uncertainty-adjusted Indian national stunting prevalence estimate reduced to 18.7% from the unadjusted estimate of 36.2%.ConclusionsThis study proposes a robust statistical method to estimate uncertainty in stunting prevalence estimates due to incongruent dispersions of height measured in national surveys for children < 5 years in relation to the WHO height-for-age standard. The uncertainty is partly due to population heterogeneity, but also due to measurement precision, and calls for better quality in these measurements.

Project description:BackgroundThe surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives.MethodsWe obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues. We first used the value of lost output (VLO) approach, based on the WHO's Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-Health (EPIC) model, to project annual market economy losses due to these surgical diseases during 2015-30. EPIC attempts to model how disease affects a country's projected labour force and capital stock, which in turn are related to losses in economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). We then used the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which is conceptually based on the value of a statistical life and is inclusive of non-market losses, to estimate the present value of long-run welfare losses resulting from mortality and short-run welfare losses resulting from morbidity incurred during 2010. Sensitivity analyses were performed for both approaches.FindingsDuring 2015-30, the VLO approach projected that surgical conditions would result in losses of 1·25% of potential GDP, or $20·7 trillion (2010 US$, purchasing power parity) in the 128 countries with data available. When expressed as a proportion of potential GDP, annual GDP losses were greatest in low-income and middle-income countries, with up to a 2·5% loss in output by 2030. When total welfare losses are assessed (VLW), the present value of economic losses is estimated to be equivalent to 17% of 2010 GDP, or $14·5 trillion in the 175 countries assessed with this approach. Neoplasm and injury account for greater than 95% of total economic losses with each approach, but maternal, digestive, and neonatal disorders, which represent only 4% of losses in high-income countries with the VLW approach, contribute to 26% of losses in low-income countries.InterpretationThe macroeconomic impact of surgical disease is substantial and inequitably distributed. When paired with the growing number of favourable cost-effectiveness analyses of surgical interventions in low-income and middle-income countries, our results suggest that building surgical capacity should be a global health priority.FundingUS National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute.

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Estimated need for surgery worldwide based on prevalence of diseases: a modelling strategy for the WHO Global Health Estimate.

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Estimated need for surgery worldwide based on prevalence of diseases: a modelling strategy for the WHO Global Health Estimate.

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