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Examining the correlates and drivers of human population distributions across low- and middle-income countries.

ABSTRACT: Geographical factors have influenced the distributions and densities of global human population distributions for centuries. Climatic regimes have made some regions more habitable than others, harsh topography has discouraged human settlement, and transport links have encouraged population growth. A better understanding of these types of relationships enables both improved mapping of population distributions today and modelling of future scenarios. However, few comprehensive studies of the relationships between population spatial distributions and the range of drivers and correlates that exist have been undertaken at all, much less at high spatial resolutions, and particularly across the low- and middle-income countries. Here, we quantify the relative importance of multiple types of drivers and covariates in explaining observed population densities across 32 low- and middle-income countries over four continents using machine-learning approaches. We find that, while relationships between population densities and geographical factors show some variation between regions, they are generally remarkably consistent, pointing to universal drivers of human population distribution. Here, we find that a set of geographical features relating to the built environment, ecology and topography consistently explain the majority of variability in population distributions at fine spatial scales across the low- and middle-income regions of the world.

SUBMITTER: Nieves JJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5746564 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Examining the correlates and drivers of human population distributions across low- and middle-income countries.

Nieves Jeremiah J JJ Stevens Forrest R FR Gaughan Andrea E AE Linard Catherine C Sorichetta Alessandro A Hornby Graeme G Patel Nirav N NN Tatem Andrew J AJ

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20171201 137

Geographical factors have influenced the distributions and densities of global human population distributions for centuries. Climatic regimes have made some regions more habitable than others, harsh topography has discouraged human settlement, and transport links have encouraged population growth. A better understanding of these types of relationships enables both improved mapping of population distributions today and modelling of future scenarios. However, few comprehensive studies of the relat ...[more]

PMID: 29237823

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Project description:Insufficient physical activity (PA) is the fourth major risk factor for many non-communicable diseases and premature mortality worldwide. Features of the built environment (BE) play a considerable role in determining population PA behaviors. The majority of evidence for PA-BE relationships comes from high-income countries and may not be generalizable to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aim to systematically review the literature and assess the associations between perceived and/or objective BE characteristics and PA domains in LMICs. This review adopted a systematic search strategy for English language articles published between January 2000 and June 2019 from four electronic databases-Medline, Embase, Web of Science and PubMed-adhering to the PRISMA guidelines. Studies addressing the associations between self-reported and/or objective BE and PA were only included if they were conducted in LMICs, according to the World Bank classification list. Articles investigating PA-BE relationships across any age groups were included, and all study designs were eligible, except for qualitative studies and reviews. Thirty-three studies were included for evidence synthesis. Cross-sectional studies were the most prevailing study design (97%), revealing a notable gap in longitudinal PA-BE research in LMICs. A majority of the BE factors were not associated with different PA domains while others (e.g., density, proximity to services, aesthetics) exhibited an inconsistent association. Land-use mix diversity was positively associated with transport PA and the presence of recreation facilities resulted in an increase in PA during leisure-time. Increased safety from crime at night consistently increased total PA and walking levels. Research exploring the associations between BE attributes and PA behaviors in LMICs appears to be limited and is primarily cross-sectional. Longitudinal research studies with objective measures are needed for inferring well-grounded PA-BE causal relationships and informing the design of evidence-based environmental interventions for increasing PA levels in LMICs.

Project description:ImportancePopulation-based screening for chronic kidney disease (CKD) is sometimes recommended based on the assumption that detecting CKD is associated with beneficial changes in treatment. However, the treatment of CKD is often similar to the treatment of hypertension or diabetes, which commonly coexist with CKD.ObjectiveTo determine the frequency with which population-based screening for CKD is associated with a change in recommended treatment compared with a strategy of measuring blood pressure and assessing glycemia.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study was conducted using data obtained from studies that evaluated CKD in population-based samples from China (2007-2010), India (2010-2014), Mexico (2007-2008), Senegal (2012), and the United States (2009-2014), including a total of 126 242 adults screened for CKD. Data were analyzed from January 2020 to March 2021.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary definition of CKD was estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. For individuals with CKD, the need for a treatment change was defined as not taking an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker or having blood pressure levels of 140/90 mm Hg or greater. For individuals with CKD who also had diabetes, the need for a treatment change was also defined as having hemoglobin A1c levels of 8% or greater or fasting glucose levels of 178.4 mg/dL (9.9 mmol/L) or greater. Case finding was defined as testing for CKD only in adults with hypertension or diabetes.ResultsAmong 126 242 adults screened for CKD, there were 47 204 patients in the China cohort, 9817 patients in the India cohort, 51 137 patients in the Mexico cohort, 2441 patients in the Senegal cohort, and 15 643 patients in the US cohort. The mean age of participants was 49.6 years (95% CI, 49.5-49.7 years) in the China cohort, 42.9 years (95% CI, 42.6-43.2 years) in the India cohort, 51.6 years (95% CI, 51.5-51.7 years) in the Mexico cohort, 48.2 years (95% CI, 47.5-48.9 years) in the Senegal cohort, and 47.3 years (95% CI, 46.6-48.0 years) in the US cohort. The proportion of women was 57.3% (95% CI, 56.9%-57.7%) in the China cohort, 53.4% (95% CI, 52.4%-54.4%) in the India cohort, 68.8% (95% CI, 68.4%-69.2%) in the Mexico cohort, 56.0% (95% CI, 54.0%-58.0%) in the Senegal cohort, and 51.9% (51.0%-52.7%) in the US cohort. The prevalence of CKD was 2.5% (95% CI, 2.4%-2.7%) in the China cohort, 2.3% (95% CI, 2.0%-2.6%) in the India cohort, 10.6% (95% CI, 10.3%-10.9%) in the Mexico cohort, 13.1% (95% CI, 11.7%-14.4%) in the Senegal cohort, and 6.8% (95% CI, 6.2%-7.5%) in the US cohort. Screening for CKD was associated with the identification of additional adults whose treatment would change (beyond those identified by measuring blood pressure and glycemia) per 1000 adults: China: 8 adults (95% CI, 8-9 adults); India: 5 adults (95% CI, 4-7 adults); Mexico: 26 adults (95% CI, 24-27 adults); Senegal: 59 adults (95% CI, 50-69 adults); and the US: 19 adults (95% CI, 16-23 adults). Case finding was associated with the identification of 46.2% (95% CI, 45.1%-47.4%) to 86.4% (95% CI, 85.4%-87.3%) of individuals with CKD depending on the country, an increase in the proportion of individuals requiring a treatment change by as much 89.6% (95% CI, 80.4%-99.3%) in the US, and a decrease in the proportion of individuals needing GFR measurements by as much as 57.8% (95% CI, 56.3%-59.3%) in the US.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that most additional individuals with CKD identified by population-based screening programs did not need a change in treatment compared with a strategy of measuring blood pressure and assessing glycemia and that case finding was more efficient than screening for early detection of CKD.

Dataset Information

Examining the correlates and drivers of human population distributions across low- and middle-income countries.

Publications

Examining the correlates and drivers of human population distributions across low- and middle-income countries.

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