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Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies risks for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients on surveillance.

ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine whether dynamic computed tomography (CT)-measured liver volume predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) when the CT scans do not reveal evidence of HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients on surveillance.This retrospective multicentre cohort study included 1,246 patients who received entecavir and regular HCC surveillance in three tertiary referral centres in South Korea. Liver volumes were measured on portal venous phase CT images. A nomogram was developed based on Cox independent predictors and externally validated. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed for comparison with previous prediction models.Patients who received dynamic CT studies during surveillance had significantly higher risk for HCC compared to patients without CT studies (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.1; p < 0.001). Expected/measured liver volume ratio was an independent predictor of HCC (HR = 4.2; p = 0.002) in addition to age, sex and cirrhosis. The nomogram based on the four predictors discriminated risks for HCC (HR = 4.1 and 6.0 in derivation and validation cohort, respectively, for volume score > 150; p < 0.001). Time-dependent ROC analysis confirmed better performance of the volume score compared to HCC prediction models with conventional predictors (integrated area under curve = 0.758 vs. 0.661-0.712; p < 0.05).CT-measured liver volume is an independent predictor of future HCC, and nomogram-based liver volume score may stratify the risks of HCC in CHB patients who showed negative CT findings for HCC during surveillance.

SUBMITTER: Lee CS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5749771 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies risks for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients on surveillance.

Lee Chung Seop CS Jung Yong Jin YJ Kim Soon Sun SS Cheong Jae Youn JY Lee Ga Ram GR Kim Han Gyeol HG Kim Beom Hee BH Chung Jung Wha JW Jang Eun Sun ES Jeong Sook-Hyang SH Lee Kyung Ho KH Kim Jin-Wook JW

PloS one 20180102 1

<h4>Background and aim</h4>The aim of this study was to determine whether dynamic computed tomography (CT)-measured liver volume predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) when the CT scans do not reveal evidence of HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients on surveillance.<h4>Methods</h4>This retrospective multicentre cohort study included 1,246 patients who received entecavir and regular HCC surveillance in three tertiary referral centres in South Korea. Liver volumes were measured on ...[more]

PMID: 29293612

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Project description:Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the main cause of mortality in patients with chronic viral hepatitis (CVH). We determined the impact of surveillance and treatments on long-term outcomes in patients with CVH who developed HCC. Between 1984 and 2014, 333 patients with HCC and with hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus infection were evaluated. An adjusted lead time bias interval was added to patients with HCC who presented with HCC (no surveillance), and their survival was compared to patients whose HCC was detected by surveillance. After HCC treatments, survival rates within and beyond 3 years of follow-up were compared. In 175 (53%) patients, HCC was detected through surveillance using alpha-fetoprotein and abdominal ultrasound examinations. Compared to 158 (47%) patients with HCC who had no surveillance, more patients with HCC detected by surveillance received surgical and locoregional treatments (P < 0.0001 to P < 0.001), and their 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were significantly higher (P < 0.001 for both). During the first 3 years of follow-up, patients with HCC receiving liver transplantation had similar survival rates as those with liver resection or radiofrequency ablation (RFA); however, due to HCC recurrence, survival in resection and RFA patients became significantly less when followed beyond 3 years (P = 0.001 to P = 0.04). Factors associated with mortality included tumors beyond University of California at San Francisco criteria (hazard ratio [HR] 2.02; P < 0.0001), Child-Pugh class B and C (HR, 1.58-2.26; P = 0.043 to P = 0.015, respectively), alpha-fetoprotein per log ng/mL increase (HR, 1.30; P < 0.0001), previous antiviral therapy in hepatitis B virus patients (HR, 0.62; P = 0.032), and treatments other than liver transplantation (HR, 2.38-6.45; P < 0.0001 to P < 0.003). Conclusion. Patients with HCC detected by surveillance had prolonged survival. Due to HCC recurrence, survival rates after liver resection and RFA were lower when followed beyond 3 years after treatments. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:595-608).

Dataset Information

Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies risks for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients on surveillance.

Publications

Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies risks for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients on surveillance.

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